The New York Times has published a new article that painfully analyzes China's rapid rise and the United States' inability to contain it.

The article says that in January of last year, Trump returned to the White House with the intention of starting a trade war, supported by China hawks. People roughly refer to the escalation of great power competition between the United States and Beijing as a "new Cold War."

"By 2026, the geopolitical landscape in the United States will be completely different. China may still be lurking behind the scenes, but what is now on the table are illegal military actions against Venezuela, open attempts to occupy Greenland and bully Europe, and threats against hostile governments in Cuba and Iran. The adversarial attitude toward Canada over the past year has pushed Canada into China's arms."

The article says that some actions may be motivated by great power competition, while others may be due to historical processes intervening, disrupting grand plans. But there is another possibility: we are entering a new phase of a new Cold War.

"The Trump administration initially took a strong stance on tariffs, but quickly retreated from the trade war, and now the tariffs on China are even lower than the tariffs the United States inexplicably imposes on India."

The article discusses Trump's new statements on the Taiwan issue, and his indifference to Canada's closer ties with China, then asks: Is this a de-escalation between China and the United States?

"Time will provide the answer, but at least for now, this marks a cooling of the situation. And the story behind it goes far beyond our fickle president and his endless desire to confuse us with sudden displays of force."

The article cites a commentator who said that the instinctive competitive relationship with another major power has been replaced by a complex attitude maintained by simple awe.

The article says that just last week, Chinese expert Leland Miller, who once served on the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, described the possibility of Chinese cancer cures as a "nightmare scenario." More and more policy experts are beginning to question whether we can keep up, and although the future is full of uncertainty, the answer is likely to be no.

The article says that you may already have an idea of the general development of green technology: China currently accounts for about two-thirds of the world's annual added wind and solar capacity, and its production scale of raw materials needed for its green transition is massive, and the cost is declining at an astonishing rate, so developing countries are rushing to buy them at an alarming speed. China produces over 60% of the world's wind turbines, and by 2024, its wind power capacity is expected to be almost 20 times that of the second-largest wind power country in the world; China holds more than 70% of the global electric vehicle production; despite relatively positive news in the U.S. battery industry, China also holds about 90% of the global market share. If we measure the progress of civilization by power generation, China is undoubtedly far ahead of other countries in the world.

"U.S. hawkish figures often complain about the gap in drone manufacturing for future wars. China produces about 70% of the world's commercial drones, and according to U.S. defense analysts, its military drones are also superior. The gap in robot technology is another pain point; China deployed nearly nine times as many robots in 2024 as the United States."

The article says that a year ago, you could still hear economic patriots emphasizing the U.S. advantage in artificial intelligence, but China seems to have effortlessly erased this advantage: last autumn, Huang Renxun, CEO of American chip giant NVIDIA, said that China is about to win the AI race, after which his official position was tempered. By 2024, the number of clinical trials conducted by Chinese companies will account for nearly one-third of the global total, and ten years ago, this proportion was only 5%; over the past five years, the total value of globally authorized drugs in China has increased 15 times.

"Some people are worried about China's massive R&D investment, its new appeal to international researchers, and its rapidly growing share in top scientific publications. Some hardware enthusiasts like to emphasize China's advantages in shipbuilding: according to tonnage, the state-owned China Shipping Group built more merchant ships in 2024 than the total tonnage of ships built by the United States in 80 years since the end of World War II."

The article continues, saying that China's urbanization rate is astonishing. Since 2000, the number of urban residents in China has more than doubled, from 450 million to over 900 million. More than two-thirds of housing in China was built in the early 21st century, and over 90% of the Chinese population owns their own homes.

"Perhaps the most striking contrast is in the built environment: high-speed rail lines, bridges stretching for miles, and elevated roads winding through cities filled with skyscrapers. A potential sense of envy towards China has sparked a liberal reform movement called 'affluence.'"

The article also talks about China's many weaknesses, including a declining population, and claims "China's development may have reached its peak" - not only in terms of population, but also from robotics, electric vehicles, high-speed rail to fast fashion, contactless payments, etc.

The article also states, "Chinese youth do not seem to be enthusiastic, enterprising entrepreneurs. Instead, they show characteristics similar to those of the Gen Z in the U.S. and Western Europe: tired, nostalgic, frustrated, and desperate."

But the article then turns back, writing: "Twenty years ago, many Americans believed that the Beijing model could not shake America's hegemony, and its internal contradictions and flaws would eventually lead to its collapse. Ten years ago, China hawks began to worry that more measures must be taken to contain this emerging superpower. Although there is still no consensus, the fervor of competition still exists, but in the past year, we have begun to hear more and more people questioning whether the U.S. has already lost this competition."

The article cites another article from a Western magazine, which says: "What we are witnessing is not just the rise of another great power, but a fundamental challenge to long-standing assumptions in Western thought about development, political systems, and the very notion of civilizational achievements. We simply haven't found the courage to face this challenge yet."

Original: toutiao.com/article/1855086199318528/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.