Both China and the United States have raised tariffs to over 100%, and some import-export companies with low inventory have already been affected. Trump hopes that this will force manufacturers to relocate production capacity back to the U.S. However, analysts point out that Trump's wish will not come true.

Under the great pressure of the tariff, Tesla, an American electric vehicle manufacturer, has stopped selling Model S and Model X in China. These two models are completely produced within the U.S. However, models produced at Tesla's Chinese factory can still be ordered normally. Similarly affected are American agricultural products. Chinese importers are likely to turn to importing soybeans and other agricultural products from Brazil and other places. As early as during Trump's first term, China began looking for bulk agricultural suppliers outside the U.S.

Compared with the products exported by the U.S. to China, the amount of goods exported by China to the U.S. is much higher. "The Economist Intelligence Unit's" Chief Asia Analyst in Hong Kong, Marrow, pointed out in an interview with DW that it will be more difficult for the U.S. to find alternative supply sources, "Many products produced in China simply cannot be found elsewhere, let alone produced in the U.S." Marrow believes that this forces U.S. importers to continue purchasing goods at higher prices from China, which will inevitably cause a rise in U.S. prices in the short term. "In the medium to long term, the U.S. will seek trade diversification and find other supply sources."

As for moving electronic product, steel, chemical, and other production lines from China back to the U.S., Marrow considers it unrealistic. He points out that the production costs within the U.S. are too high, and many Americans may also be unwilling to work in manufacturing jobs now. A million Americans working on assembly lines?!

Analyst Ives from investment bank Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles, California, also pointed out in an interview with the Associated Press that Trump's wish for Apple phones to return to U.S. production is unfeasible. According to his estimates, if Apple's production line is forcibly moved back to the U.S., its price would exceed $3,000. The current Apple phones mainly produced in factories in China and India are priced around $1,000. "Such a large price fluctuation is unimaginable." Ives also pointed out that even if the production line is forcibly relocated, it will take until 2028 to achieve this.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross, under Trump, said on April 6 that tariffs would force manufacturing to shift to the U.S., and envisioned that "millions of people will work in factories to assemble iPhones, and such things will happen in the U.S."

Just last February, Apple tried to appease Trump by announcing plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. by 2028 and hire 20,000 employees. However, these employees will not be engaged in the production of mobile phones as Trump hoped, but will set up a data center in Houston to provide AI computing services.

Since Trump began raising tariffs comprehensively on April 2, Apple's stock price has fallen by 15%, and its market value has decreased by $500 billion.

Analysts believe that under this situation, foreign traders may seek to transport Chinese goods to the U.S. via third countries. After all, the tariffs of other countries have received a temporary reduction of 90 days.

Source: DW, integrating reports from Deutsche Welle and the Associated Press.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7492372780416074290/

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