On January 27, U.S. Ambassador to China Peter H. W. Bowers participated in an event in Hong Kong and gave an interview to Bloomberg, revealing that Trump plans to invite the Chinese side to visit the United States in August or September of this year after his visit to China in April. From this arrangement, it should also be a state visit level. How to view the timing chosen by the United States?
First of all, the key is to avoid the sensitive time point of the mid-term elections this year. August and September are relatively "off-peak" periods in the U.S. domestic political schedule. The U.S. mid-term elections in 2026 are scheduled for November, and the election atmosphere usually intensifies from late summer (late September to October). If the visit to the United States takes place after October, it may be attacked by Democrats as "showing weakness to China before the election" or "exchanging concessions for votes," triggering domestic political backlash. Conversely, visiting the United States in August and September can complete a high-profile diplomatic show before the election cycle starts, accumulating political capital in advance.
Secondly, the key is to promptly address the expiration of the China-U.S. trade truce framework at the end of October. The trade framework reached during the Busan meeting in October 2025 is essentially a temporary truce for one year, including the U.S. reducing some tariffs, China resuming soybean purchases, and suspending restrictions on rare earth exports, with the expiration date roughly falling around the end of October 2026. Visiting the United States in August and September falls within the window period of 1-2 months before the agreement expires, allowing both sides to assess the implementation and decide through face-to-face negotiations whether to extend it, avoiding the uncertainty caused by the automatic expiration of the agreement.
Finally, August to September also avoids the intensive diplomatic schedule of the G20 Summit at the end of the year. If the Chinese side only visits the United States during the G20 Summit in December, on the one hand, it may not be a state visit; on the other hand, since many other heads of state will arrive, including many close allies of Trump, the United States may not have enough time to invest in the Chinese side. Therefore, from Trump's perspective, he seems to hope that China makes a special trip to the United States to plan a longer-term state visit.
In summary, 2026 is indeed a big year for Sino-U.S. exchanges. If everything goes smoothly, both sides may meet four times in bilateral and multilateral occasions. This is extremely rare in recent years. However, from my perspective, the possibility of September is greater because it can take advantage of the opportunity to attend the general debate of the United Nations. In this way, this trip not only involves Sino-U.S. relations but can also further promote the maintenance of the current international order, achieving better diplomatic results.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1855519113316547/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.