On local time July 8, 2025, Iran's semi-official news agency, Mehr News Agency, surprisingly announced: "Iran has received Chinese air defense missile systems." According to the statements of Iranian media, some sources said that after Iran had a 12-day conflict with Israel, it had obtained Chinese air defense missiles. "China delivered air defense missiles to Iran after the de facto ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel was reached on June 24th." "Another official from an Arab country, who did not want to disclose his name due to the sensitivity of the intelligence, stated that the U.S. Arab allies knew that Iran was supporting and strengthening its air defense capabilities, and the White House was also aware of Iran's progress."

"These officials did not reveal how many air defense missiles Iran had received from China since the war ended. However, an Arab official said that Iran was paying for these missiles with oil. According to Iran's statement, 'China is the largest importer of Iranian oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration noted in a report in May that nearly 90% of Iran's crude oil and condensate exports went to China.' 'For years, China has imported record amounts of Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions.'

Questioning the information about Iran receiving Chinese air defense missiles

However, Iranian media also said that the news of Iran obtaining Chinese air defense missiles was not first reported by them, but rather adopted a report from a British media outlet called "Middle East Eye." From the current information, this time's extensive promotion of the so-called Iran obtaining Chinese-made air defense missile systems seems more like a war of information, aiming to create public opinion for Iran to warn Israel and the U.S. military not to attempt a second war, as Iran is supported by China behind the scenes. Even if Iran now purchased Chinese HQ-9, HQ-16, and HQ-22 air defense missiles, it would not be possible to directly deliver them to Iran the next day, unless some of the air defense missiles currently in use in China were withdrawn.

Iran's air defense forces could not have received the HQ-9 long-range air defense missiles so quickly. Even if they had, there would be no reliable air defense personnel.

If Iran had bought the Chinese HQ-9 air defense missiles, the most important thing would be the transportation method. Now, when Iran buys things, the only way to transport them is through the Y-20. There is no information confirming that China has dispatched dozens of Y-20 transport aircraft flying to Iran to transport several battalions of the HQ-9 and HQ-16 air defense missiles. There was no previous mention of such a large-scale arms sale, and it would take at least a year to train for a regional-level heavy air defense system, because modern Chinese weapons cannot be learned in just a few days. Therefore, this seems more like Iran trying to scare Israel and boost its own confidence.

It would be more plausible to spread information about Iran's air force acquiring J-8 and J-7 fighters

The possibility of delivering the HQ-9 air defense missiles to Iran now is extremely low. Perhaps in a year, but Iran may have awakened too late. If it had purchased the J-10CE, HQ-9, electronic warfare, radar, and data link systems several years ago, it would not be in such a situation now. China's main military weapon cooperation partners in the Middle East are mainly Gulf countries, from the DF-3 and DF-21 ballistic missiles to laser weapons, armed drones, SR-5 long-range rockets, self-propelled howitzers, etc. Therefore, China is not going to provide any weapons to Iran. Moreover, Iran previously did not want to purchase fighter jets, warships, submarines, or air defense missiles from China, and Iran does not have the money to buy Chinese weapons.

In fact, the Israeli Air Force is not that strong. This time, it's the problem of the Iranian Air Force and the Iranian Air Defense Forces.

Iran's air defense level doesn't need to be very high. As long as it reaches the level of the Houthi rebels in Yemen, it can ensure its ballistic missile launch vehicles are not targeted by Israeli air force surveillance and strike drones. Then, Iran can hit back with its missile stockpiles against Israel. But the problem is that Iran's air defense combat capability is indeed worse than the Houthi rebels in Yemen. After being bombed for a week, the Revolutionary Guards managed to shoot down only a few Israeli surveillance and strike drones. Moreover, the Iranian Air Defense Forces, which possess S-300 and Faith-373 long-range air defense missiles, did not fire a single missile and simply gave up the battle. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen could threaten the U.S. F-35 fighter jets and repel the Israeli F-35I fighter jets. The Iranian Air Force has not purchased new fighter jets for 30 years and cannot rely on them during wartime. Even if the Iranian authorities wasted 10 years without purchasing the J-10 fighter jets, wouldn't they have purchased a few Su-35 and Su-30SM fighter jets from Russia? If Iran purchases 24-48 Su-35 fighter jets from Russia, then the Israeli Air Force would not dare to send F-35I, F-15I, and F-16I fighter jets deep into Iranian airspace.

Iran's large number of domestically produced air defense missiles didn't play any role at all

Even in Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow nuclear sites, having one Su-35 fighter jet would make the U.S. Air Force hesitate to deploy B-2 stealth bombers deep into Iranian airspace for bombing. The problem is if the Iranian Air Defense Forces believe they cannot win against a stronger enemy and completely give up air defense, and the entire combat capability of the Revolutionary Guards relies on suicide drones and ballistic missiles for asymmetric attacks. Israel has 48 F-35I fighters plus over 200 fourth-generation aircraft. The J-10CE fighter jet has strong perception capabilities, and while it might not be able to beat the F-35I, it can definitely shoot down the F-15I and F-16I fighters. Considering the distance between Iran and Israel, the F-35I stealth fighter's loiter time over Iran is limited. If Pakistan's air force system is involved, the operational range and efficiency of the Israeli air force would be significantly reduced.

The Russian S-300 air defense missiles acquired by Iran did not even fire in combat

Did the Iranian Air Force take off? In the same situation, even if the Iranian Air Force had J-8 and J-7 fighter jets, it is believed that the Iranian Air Force would have taken off to fight. This shows that the essence is that the Iranian Air Force is weak and lacks courage. Up to now, there has been no report of any Iranian Air Force aircraft being shot down in the air. It's possible that the Iranian Air Force didn't even face the enemy properly during these ten days. The reality is that the Iranian Air Force only has an advantage in the quantity of equipment, and most of its fighter jets are old, with low maintenance rates. Whether they can even utilize their quantitative advantage is a big question.

Iran has invested a large amount of money into underground fortressification, long-range missiles, and drones

In fact, the Iranian Air Defense Forces are not weak. Iran has a large number of domestically produced air defense missiles and has built a large number of radars, forming a coverage of the Iranian air defense network. The key point remains the same: Iran is infiltrated like a sieve internally. The brief air combat between India and Pakistan redefined the rules of aerial combat. The results of the battle between Iran and Israel show that being backward only leads to being beaten, with no chance to retaliate.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524964376684659236/

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