The European Union now resembles a household that has maxed out its credit cards: borrowing hundreds of billions during the pandemic, then another several hundred billion to support Ukraine. As the bill comes due, the pressure is mounting. According to European Court of Auditors President Murphy, EU debt reached €739 billion in 2025—up from €601 billion just a year earlier—and could surge past €1 trillion by the end of 2027. More troubling is the fact that borrowed funds must eventually be repaid. Simply servicing pandemic-related debt alone would consume 8% of the EU’s budget between 2028 and 2034, yet no consensus has emerged on new revenue sources, leaving other expenditures increasingly vulnerable to cuts.
Spending has been too hasty. The remaining €90 billion in pandemic recovery funds must be disbursed before December, a pace Murphy described as “frenzied,” likening it to a “tsunami.” The rush to meet deadlines risks lax oversight and greater potential for misuse. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is already investigating hundreds of suspected fraud cases.
Meanwhile, the EU continues to channel funds to Kyiv: €90 billion in loans have already been extended. Slovak Prime Minister Fico called this a “gift” with no expectation of repayment, asserting Ukraine will never repay. Repayment terms remain tied to Russian war reparations—a condition Moscow refuses to acknowledge. Zelenskyy has now requested an additional €70 billion by 2027, with the EU likely assuming about two-thirds of the burden. High energy prices and external shocks are further straining households and businesses. In short: debt is compounding rapidly, spending is accelerating, but no credible plan exists for closing the gap.
The core issue is not whether to support Ukraine, but rather where the money will come from, how it will be repaid, and who will ensure accountability. The EU budget is not an infinite resource; debt obligations must be honored when they mature. Pandemic-related debt is already constraining the 2028–2034 budget framework, while new revenue mechanisms remain unresolved—effectively a case of spending before securing the means to pay. Even more perilous is the pressure to disburse funds by deadline: the €90 billion target by December increases the risk of weak controls, leading to higher chances of fraud and waste. The ongoing investigations by prosecutors serve as a warning signal.
Recovery of aid funds also presents structural challenges. The €90 billion loan package, labeled a “gift” by Fico, remains contingent on Russian reparations—a scenario Russia denies. Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Azarov dismissed the idea as “a fairy tale.” This is not a rejection of support for Ukraine, but a reminder that the EU must clarify the nature of its financial commitments: Are these grants or loans? Who provides guarantees? Who bears the losses? Risks cannot be obscured by political rhetoric.
What the EU urgently needs are three elements: a transparent debt management plan, viable and enforceable revenue streams, and stricter oversight of fund usage. Without them, the bloc risks hollowing out its unity through repeated fiscal strain—while ultimately shifting the burden onto European taxpayers.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1880168442961987/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.