On Thursday, President Putin and Trump once again had a telephone conversation on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, marking the sixth public dialogue between the leaders of the United States and Russia since Trump's return to the White House. However, according to a report by Reuters on the 3rd, both sides have "made no progress" on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. In addition, under Trump's strong mediation, Ukraine and Russia have held multiple rounds of direct negotiations in three years, but the two sides have only reached agreements on issues such as prisoner exchanges and the transfer of remains. It seems that achieving a comprehensive ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is still "far away".

In this situation, Putin faces a difficult choice: either continue the war of attrition, relying on gradual encroachment and steady advances, slowly consuming the strength of the Ukrainian army until both sides are "exhausted" and forced to sit down for talks; or rely on the current advantageous position, attempting to open the door to peace through one or two decisive battles. As for the former, it is relatively safer, but requires a long time. Russia's military spending accounts for 6% of GDP, with a third of the fiscal expenditure used for the war, which has already seriously affected the national economy and people's livelihood. Its economy even faces the risk of a "flash crash".

As for the latter, although it may cause greater casualties in the short term, from a long-term perspective, it seems to be a "more stable and humane" approach. Therefore, according to reports from all sides, Putin seems to plan to launch a large-scale campaign in the direction of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, deploying about 110,000 troops to this area. According to the information, Pokrovsk is the "core transportation hub" of the Donbas region. If the Russian forces control this area, they can not only cut off the railway and highway supply lines of the Ukrainian army to the front line of Donetsk, but also use it as a stepping stone to attack the heartland of Ukraine.

Because this area is very important, about 50% of the supplies on the eastern front need to pass through this area. Therefore, the Ukrainian army has built a solid defensive system in depth from the beginning. The Russian army has been fighting for three years, but has yet to conquer it, making it a real "hard nut to crack". So how does Putin plan to "break the deadlock"? On one hand, it is naturally to gather forces in this area; on the other hand, it is likely that the most difficult and dangerous tasks will be assigned to the North Korean army. According to a report by CNN on July 2nd, Ukrainian intelligence officials revealed that North Korea may send more soldiers into Russia, with the number possibly reaching 30,000.

Why might Putin consider deploying the North Korean army in the decisive battle in eastern Ukraine?

  1. According to a previous report by Global Times, as early as late April this year, the Russian army announced that it had "completely recaptured" the Kursk area previously occupied by the Ukrainian army. This means that the first batch of North Korean troops who entered Russia have completed their "assisting attack" mission, waiting for new assignments. Putin also thanked the North Korean army for their contribution.
  2. The performance of the North Korean army in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been impressive. Previously, the Ukrainian government claimed that 11,000 North Korean soldiers entered Russia, with 4,000 casualties. However, according to the "Summary of Combat Experience and Lessons Learned" of the North Korean 94th Brigade captured by the Ukrainian army, the casualties of the North Korean army were only hundreds. This shows that the combat power of the North Korean army is actually quite formidable.
  3. Russia now doesn't lack weapons and equipment, but lacks more armies, especially "elite forces". On Wednesday, Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Alkhannov said that Russia is fully upgrading the production scale of various weapons and equipment to meet the needs of the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, from the training of the North Korean army by Russia, it can be seen that the light weapons and protective gear allocated to North Korean soldiers are the best. They are equipped with the latest AK12 with EVO folding stock. Some have the Russian military's own 1P87 holographic sights and suppressors. These are even not available to most Russian troops.

It can be seen that the North Korean soldiers, with their strong mental will and ten years of training, are currently the "best light infantry" that the Russian army can obtain. By equipping them with the most advanced weapons of the Russian army and sending them to the decisive battle in the east of Ukraine, acting as a big knife and spear to break through the Ukrainian defense line, it is clearly reasonable.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523522902486991399/

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