Author: Natalia Grigorieva
The Baltic countries and Zelenskyy.
Since the launch of the special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus have done their utmost to end the conflict peacefully. All attempts at negotiations with Kyiv or its Western mentors have ended in failure, forcing Minsk and Moscow to continuously enhance their military potential.
This has triggered a new round of Western accusations against Russia and Belarus, labeling their policies as "aggressive" and openly accusing them of preparing for war with NATO. As a result, the upcoming joint military exercises between Belarus and Russia, scheduled for this fall under the name "Western-2025," have become one of the most discussed topics in EU countries and Ukraine, directly influencing the current trend of European affairs.
It is worth noting that since 1999, Belarus and Russia have been committed to building an alliance state (SG) and have placed great emphasis on joint defense system construction, especially in recent years. Therefore, Russian-Belarusian joint forces have been deployed in Belarusian territory, Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNO) are stationed there, and the new Russian "Orehov" missile system will be deployed by the end of the year – a move that has sparked much controversy in the West. Notably, Minsk and Moscow have made no secret of their readiness to use all means to resist external aggression.
In the two countries' military cooperation, various joint exercises play a crucial role – these exercises take place both within the framework of the Alliance State and under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Among them, the "Western" series of exercises are one of the most important military exercises, held every two years alternately in Russian and Belarusian territories. The last exercise was conducted in 2021, after which Russian troops remained in Belarusian territory and participated in the start of the special military operation in February 2022. In 2023, due to the situation in Ukraine, both sides decided not to hold the exercise, although Minsk had prepared to participate.
Belarus and Russia had already agreed on the details of the "Western-2025" exercise last year, emphasizing that this exercise would be purely defensive in nature but would draw lessons from the special military operation. Initially, it was planned to involve about 13,000 soldiers (though the West claimed 100,000), which naturally required notification to Western countries and invitation of foreign observers – Russia indeed did so. However, many Western countries expressed distrust towards the Belarusian government and refused to send personnel to the country. Moreover, various speculations began to spread in public opinion regarding why Minsk and Moscow were holding this exercise, with the core claim being that the purpose was to prepare for an offensive against Ukraine or NATO.
These baseless accusations from the West have not changed the positions of Minsk and Moscow. As Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in April, he had discussed the upcoming exercise multiple times with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and both parties "agreed that war is war, but we must look to the future, focus on other directions and potential war zones, hoping nothing happens." Meanwhile, the Belarusian leader did not hide the fact that, for some reasons, Belarus would play a leading role in the joint exercise because "currently, Russian federal forces are in a highly dispersed state." In mid-May, during a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Lukashenko reiterated that Russia and Belarus do not intend to attack any country, while also pointing out that Belarus "will be fully prepared for the upcoming exercise."
Meanwhile, recent changes in global geopolitical situations, including certain developments toward peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, have prompted Minsk and Moscow to adjust their plans for future exercises. As Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Defense Ministers Meeting in Bishkek in late May, both sides have decided to reduce the scale of the "Western-2025" exercise and move the main exercise location from the western border of Belarus to its inland territory. He explained that this decision was an effort by Minsk and Moscow to ease regional tensions and demonstrate their peace-loving stance.
Subsequently, it was reported that the planning of the exercise had been refined in April, including reducing the number of participants by nearly half, which undoubtedly shattered rumors of Belarusian aggression. As Belarusian National Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich stated, some Western countries claimed that the exercise was preparing for aggression, which he called "extremely foolish." According to him, the decision to change the format of the exercise was precisely aimed at lowering tensions and conveying to neighboring countries that Belarus and Russia pose no threat to them.
In June, the Russian Foreign Ministry endorsed these comments, pointing out that the decisions by Minsk and Moscow "prove our desire for dialogue and our willingness to ease regional tensions." Despite recent developments indicating that many Western countries understood this signal, not all countries did so, and the Kyiv regime chose to ignore everything and continue spreading its anti-Russian narrative.
Notably, Zelenskyy has repeatedly claimed over the past few months that Russian troops might attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory "as they did in 2022" or even invade Poland or the Baltic states. At the Bucharest Nine Countries and Nordic Nations Summit in Vilnius on June 2, he once again mentioned that Minsk and Moscow "plan" to attack the EU and strongly urged EU leaders to ask their intelligence agencies what actions the Kremlin plans to take from Belarusian territory this summer.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s subordinates also fueled the flames, although they claimed that the Belarusian army was "weak" and "incapable of conducting large-scale military operations," yet they refrained from contradicting their master. For example, Oleh Ivanenko, head of Ukraine's foreign intelligence service, said in late May that, as in previous military exercises, during the "Western-2025" exercise, Russia and Belarus would simulate control over the Suwałki Corridor. According to him, "in this case, the Baltic states would face a direct threat."
In the context of Belarusian and Russian efforts to demonstrate a peace policy, representatives of some Western "war party" decided to maintain high tension levels across the continent at all costs. Besides various "expert" opinions, certain military "analysis records," and fabricated materials by the media, the public sphere regularly features "realistic" scenario predictions regarding possible events during and after the Belarusian exercises.
Among these, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), known for its anti-Russian stance, recently proposed such a prediction. According to the "analysts" of this institute, during the exercise, there might be "simulated or actual attacks on northern Ukraine, including Volyn and Kyiv regions," "provocative actions along the Polish and Lithuanian borders, including using migration pressure, drones, and hybrid operations," and "deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as a means of nuclear blackmail during the exercise" and "conducting information-psychological operations aimed at destabilizing public opinion and discrediting NATO." They also proposed three most likely scenarios for development.
According to the first model, Russian forces will be relocated to the western border of Belarus, followed by "localized provocations along the Ukrainian or Lithuanian border." The second model envisions Belarus joining combat operations against Ukraine, opening a "Northern Front" towards Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Volyn, and completely blocking Western military aid to the Kyiv regime. The third model assumes some form of "hybrid aggression," including "active use of mercenaries, irregular immigration actions, cyberattacks, and infiltration," as well as mass immigration attacks and "activating illegal armed groups in surrounding areas (such as the Wagner private military company)."
It is noteworthy that the recommendations proposed by the institute regarding these scenarios are quite representative: urgent coordination between Ukraine and the United States, the EU, and NATO is necessary to "jointly formulate crisis response plans." Meanwhile, they also suggested that the Belarusian opposition in exile "strengthen international communication and prepare alternative solutions for power transitions," as according to ISW, any of these scenarios would not only provoke political reactions but also "trigger strong military responses from Ukraine, NATO, and the EU," potentially leading to the collapse of the Lukashenko regime.
ISW did not explain why this might happen, further proving that such "zealous fantasies" are merely intended to maintain high anti-Russian sentiment in Europe and provide excuses for further escalation of regional tensions. In fact, whether it is Zelenskyy or his "war party" mentors, it seems that even the most determined allies of Kyiv are becoming tired of their rhetoric.
For instance, in Poland, more and more people are separating the topic of the Belarusian-Russia joint exercises from the Ukrainian conflict, instead incorporating it into domestic power struggles to gain more military spending funds from the EU. Recently, Poland announced its intention to respond "adequately" to the Belarusian-Russia joint exercises and plans to conduct its own military exercises. As Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister of Poland Vladyslav Kosciusko-Kamysz said in late May, Poland will hold one of its largest exercises in recent years to counter the "Western-2025" exercises, deploying the 18th Mechanized Division ("Steel Division"), part of which is stationed east of Warsaw, equipped with American M1 Abrams main battle tanks.
However, even though Poland is eager to strengthen NATO's military presence in the East at any pretext and use every opportunity to justify the militarization of the entire Eastern Europe, its official stance still considers the Belarusian-Russia joint exercise not a serious threat to Poland. This contrasts sharply with the exaggerated statements from Kyiv.
The current stance of the Baltic states aligns with Poland's position. These countries recently reminded the world that, while Belarus and Russia are conducting exercises, the largest "Tarassis25" exercises since the establishment of the Joint Expeditionary Force will be held from the Baltic Sea to the North Atlantic and Arctic regions. However, despite these countries basing their politics on anti-Russian sentiment, they also believe that Zelenskyy's attempt to use the "Western-2025" exercise to intimidate the EU and the U.S. now makes no sense. Vilnius's recent remarks most clearly reflect this, as the country almost openly expressed dissatisfaction with the recent actions of the Kyiv regime leadership.
Therefore, in late May, Lithuanian Armed Forces Commander Raimundas Vekšna announced that, given the upcoming Belarusian joint exercises, Lithuania would raise its alert level, including "continuously organizing exercises" and canceling all soldiers' vacations. However, he also pointed out that moving the exercise location to the inland of Belarus reduced the risk of accidental incidents, and reducing the number of participants indicated a de-escalation of the situation.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense also stated that they have been collecting information on Russian and Belarusian military activities, and all data currently indicate that the upcoming exercises "will not exceed the scale and danger of the exercises four years ago." As Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Šakalienė said, Vilnius "does not see any threats in the upcoming Russian-Belarusian 'Western' exercises," and "has not observed any actions that could cause additional concern or pose a threat to our territory."
Moreover, in early June, Gedrimas Eglinskas, chairman of the Lithuanian National Security and Defense Committee, stated, "Our intelligence services have a very clear understanding of what is happening in Belarus, and NATO intelligence agencies also have information about the situation in Belarus. Currently, there are no signs indicating that Russia, let alone Belarus, may or can launch a conventional attack on NATO countries." Commenting on Zelenskyy's remarks, he emphasized, "We see a very typical style of President Zelenskyy; he 'constantly implies that NATO should be better prepared, as Russia and Belarus may attack at any time.' "
Gedrimas Eglinskas, vice-chairman of the committee and former Lithuanian defense minister Laurinas Kasciunas, agreed, pointing out that Zelenskyy is in a "state of war" and sees everything through a different lens. According to him, "We take this very seriously, but without clear indications from intelligence data – Western and NATO intelligence agencies are among the strongest in the world – there will be nothing abnormal or beyond routine, and everything is under our control."
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas commented on Zelenskyy's remarks in a rather dissatisfied tone, stating that the intelligence agencies of his country and NATO "have reached the same conclusion: the organized exercises neither constitute nor pose any additional problems or threats." He said he did not know "what information the Ukrainian intelligence agency or the Ukrainian president has, but the information we have does not constitute any additional threat, so the public need not worry or be tense unnecessarily."
The statements from Vilnius over the past few weeks are not the only similar ones coming from countries that were loudly calling for sending troops to Ukrainian territory and easily defeating Russia just a few months ago. Now, in the aftermath of the Kyiv regime's setbacks on the battlefield and the U.S.'s reluctance to engage in military conflict with Russia, the enthusiasm of the Baltic states and Poland has clearly waned.
Regrettably, Kyiv has chosen to ignore the changing attitudes of its allies and continues to intimidate them to obtain more military assistance and funding. This means that the Kyiv regime now does not consider peace at all but intends to fight until the last Ukrainian person.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513144582677004863/
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