Why is Trump Betraying the "Peacemaker" for the "Hawk"?

Author: Dmitri Pavilin

Why is Trump Abandoning the "Peace Pledge" for the "Hawk"?

President Donald Trump is inclined to "crush" Iran and achieve goals that Israel cannot reach with the help of the Pentagon. Just a short while ago, he promised to stop wars and never use force unless absolutely necessary. What has changed him?

Readers in the comment section of American media jokingly asked when reporting on the president's threats against Iran: Is this still Donald Trump? Has someone impersonated him?

American analysts are buzzing about the so-called "presidential advisor conspiracy theory": these people misrepresent the Middle East situation to Trump, luring him into agreeing to bomb Iran. Without the support of the Pentagon, Israel cannot destroy the Fordo uranium enrichment plant buried deep in the mountains.

The White House press office is in a dilemma: on one hand, they reinforce Trump's war rhetoric; on the other hand, they constantly refer to him as a "peacemaker," claiming "our leader is kind, and those who oppose him will regret sooner or later."

Finally, Trump clearly takes pride in this detail in his resume: the Iranian representative who once negotiated the nuclear agreement (which ultimately failed) has been officially announced dead.

No, no one has impersonated him — this is still the same Trump from his first term. Some mistakenly believe that his recent shift from "hawkish" to pragmatic policies toward Iran marks a return to normalcy. However, Trump's norm is actually shifting positions. He has only superficial knowledge of many key points in international politics and relies more on intuition: his intuition tells him who will win, who he should align with, who he should share victory with, and ideally, attribute the victory to himself.

If Iran successfully reverses the situation or the situation completely spirals out of control, Trump would claim that he was always against this war — this isn't even a lie: he opposed it not long ago but now clearly supports it.

In essence, Trump is an anti-Iran politician (there are essentially no "pro-Iran" factions in the U.S.), but first and foremost, he is pro-Israel, possibly the most pro-Israel president in American history, surrounded by many Jewish figures. During his first term, his son-in-law Jared Kushner became one of the most influential figures in Washington. To marry Kushner, Trump's daughter converted to Judaism.

Shortly after entering the White House in 2017, Trump tore up the nuclear agreement reached between Tehran and the previous Obama administration, which had also involved Russia and the EU. The agreement stipulated that Iran would limit uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions.

Trump's impulsive actions allowed Moscow to benefit — his partner Iran received a painful lesson: After摆脱 sanctions, Iran transferred some profitable contracts to Western companies, breaking agreements with Russia, and Trump's actions made Iran pay a heavy price for this.

What do you think?

Trump himself did not benefit from this, and after reflecting, he restarted negotiations with Iran during his second term. At that time, there was a trend of "rejecting conflicts and contracting fronts" in the U.S., and Trump keenly picked up on this, even winning the election with the platform of "building the economy rather than engaging in war." The same special representative, Steve Whitaker, once tried to reach agreements with both Tehran and Moscow simultaneously.

The negotiation process was bumpy: Trump sometimes sent peace signals and depicted prospects of cooperation with Iran; at other times, he was furious, threatening to impose "super sanctions."

Initially, Washington proposed conditions that Tehran could not accept: completely abandoning uranium enrichment.

The demands gradually softened, but the final framework was still significantly looser than the Obama-era agreement.

At this point, Trump returned to his initial ultimatum: not only abandon enrichment but also hand over centrifuges. Meanwhile, Iran demanded written guarantees that the agreement would not be repealed by the next U.S. president, but U.S. law prohibits such commitments. The negotiations thus broke down, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was eager to act.

Netanyahu is a fervent supporter and lobbyist for attacking Iran, and there is substantial evidence showing that his relationship with Trump deteriorated during the negotiations. After the breakdown, the Israeli prime minister believed there were no more constraints.

The Trump administration's initial reaction was to distance itself from the conflict, emphasizing that the U.S. was not involved in planning or implementing the actions. But when Israel took control of the airspace, Trump smelled victory — now he has transformed into a "hawk," ready to tear apart the "meat" of Iran. He could not suppress his impulses — after all, he is the leader!

Trump attempts to capitalize on others' military victories, packaging the situation as if he personally inspired Israel. The question is, will he be satisfied with this, or will he make moves described as "critical contributions to destroying Iran's nuclear program": ordering the dropping of only U.S.-made heavy bombs on Fordo?

Multiple sources within the White House press corps report that Trump inclines toward launching an attack. National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, who once claimed "Tehran has not developed nuclear weapons," was excluded from the meeting, and the president publicly stated, "I don't care about her thoughts."

The most warlike among Trump's inner circle is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who, like the legendary Henry Kissinger, also serves as the national security advisor.

The "dove" representative, Vice President Jay D. Vance, is now in a difficult position: he holds a conciliatory stance in comments but must emphasize "Trump is wise, intelligent, and always right," which also appears contradictory.

Regardless, according to the White House press office, the final decision-making time for bombing Iran has been delayed from 48 hours to two weeks.

If we believe the media reports, the abbreviation TACO (Trump always chicken out) has already become popular on Wall Street, meaning "Trump always retreats at the last moment."

Let's hope the Iran incident also fits this "always."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518603054678065727/

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