Foreign media: Renowned investor Mohnish Pabrai has recently conducted a detailed review of his earlier decision to sell shares of Micron Technology. Although the stock surged by approximately 15 times after his full exit, driven by the AI boom—causing his fund to miss out on roughly $2 billion in potential gains—Pabrai emphasized that he “has no regrets” about this decision.
Pabrai pointed out that he and Li Lu had conducted an in-depth analysis of Micron, which had been his largest U.S. holding for six years (from 2017 to 2023). His core investment thesis was based on the oligopolistic triopoly structure among Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, where each player maintained rational behavior and stable market share. However, in 2023, Samsung abruptly changed its strategy, launching aggressive price wars to capture market share, which led to a sharp decline in industry profitability and fundamentally shifted the investment logic. Faced with cash flow pressures and uncertain prospects, Pabrai chose to take profits. He achieved approximately 100% returns during his holding period (buying around $37 and selling at about $64).
Pabrai admitted that currently, Micron is strongly driven by soaring demand from AI data centers, leading to chip shortages and dramatic price increases—an outlier event that is difficult to predict. While he acknowledges that holding onto the stock until today would have yielded massive returns, based on the market information available in 2023, maintaining the position would have amounted to "gambling."
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1869617177865228/
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