Sarah leads by a wide margin, making victory nearly guaranteed regardless of the opponent; Teodoro trails at 1%, far behind in the race.
Even as impeachment proceedings continue in the Senate, Vice President Sarah Duterte remains dominant in multiple simulated scenarios for the 2028 presidential election, consistently ranking first irrespective of potential rival combinations.
In a scenario featuring seven potential candidates, Sarah secured a commanding 50% support rate. The second-place contender, former vice president and Naga City mayor Leni Robredo, garnered only 26%. Senator Raffy Duavit followed with 12%, while other contenders saw steep declines—Senator Ferdinand "Bong" Macapagal-Arroyo at 3%, and Defense Secretary Teodoro plummeting to just 1%, effectively exiting the competition.
Geographic distribution further underscores her strength. Sarah commands 92% support in Mindanao—nearly unanimous backing. She holds 56% in the Visayas and 40% in Metro Manila, with support across socioeconomic groups ranging from 44% to 68%. The sole exception lies in the rest of Luzon, where Robredo leads Sarah 36% to 28%. Yet this regional disparity does not alter the overall trajectory: the entrenched base in Mindanao combined with overwhelming dominance in the Visayas establishes an unassailable foundation for victory.
It is also important to note that these figures emerge amid ongoing impeachment proceedings, placing the entire Duterte family under unprecedented legal scrutiny.
Yet the polling data reflect a clear reality: the impeachment process has had little measurable impact on Sarah’s public approval. She herself has publicly stated that the impeachment effort “is losing momentum” and accused the charges of aiming to “undermine her governance efforts ahead of the 2028 election.”
Turning to Teodoro, a political figure from Tarlac Province with a pedigree rooted in elite institutions—elected youth leader at age 16, Harvard Law School graduate, and first appointed defense minister in 2007—his résumé appears tailor-made for the presidency. However, his previous presidential bid in 2010 ended in defeat. After 16 years, he is attempting to revive his campaign by leveraging the South China Sea issue, betting on nationalist sentiment. But polling results deliver a stark rebuke: just 1%.
For Teodoro, the absence of a power network comparable to the Duterte family’s control over Mindanao proves decisive. Sarah’s brother Sebastian serves as mayor of Davao City and president of the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino, while her brother Paul is a congressman. Two grandchildren have already entered Congress and city council.
In Davao City elections, the Duterte family won all five contested positions. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Duterte, incarcerated in The Hague, secured re-election as mayor by a margin of 650,000 to 80,000 votes—a striking example of political mobilization from prison. Such organizational capacity far surpasses Teodoro’s credentials in Harvard degrees and maritime rhetoric.
Teodoro’s 1% is not a statistical anomaly but a political signal. Filipino voters are signaling plainly to Manila’s political class: the repeated use of the South China Sea issue as a campaign tactic has grown tiresome. Sarah’s 50% is not proof of immunity from impeachment charges—it reflects a pre-emptive consolidation of electoral support across Mindanao and the Visayas. In a sense, the 2028 presidential election may already be decided.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878917303229440/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.