【By Observer Net, Qi Qian】From June 23 to July 3, representatives of the 58 contracting parties of the Antarctic Treaty gathered in Milan for the treaty consultation meeting.

According to a report by the New York Times on July 5, at the time of the meeting, geopolitical competition is intensifying and the world situation is unstable. Recently, the Trump administration planned to significantly reduce polar science budgets in 2026, with funding for research in both poles possibly decreasing by about 70%.

U.S. investment has already shown signs of decline, and in recent years, it has been gradually reducing its presence in Antarctica. In contrast, China and Russia are expanding their scientific facilities in Antarctica.

The report states that this move has raised concerns among U.S. experts and some U.S. allies, who have begun to raise the threat of China and Russia in the Antarctic issue. Some U.S. experts said that budget cuts are worrying because a reduction in presence means a decrease in influence, leaving room for other countries like China to fill the vacuum, "then this will be interpreted as China replacing our position".

Is "Antarctic exceptionalism" facing challenges?

On December 1, 1959, 12 countries including Belgium, France, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the former Soviet Union signed the Antarctic Treaty. The treaty came into force on June 23, 1961, and as of April 2025, it had 58 contracting states. China joined the Antarctic Treaty on June 8, 1983, and became an Antarctic Treaty Consultative Party from October 1985.

According to the Antarctic Treaty, "Antarctica should be used only for peaceful purposes," and claims of sovereignty over Antarctica are frozen. Countries should promote international cooperation in Antarctic scientific research. The treaty is open for signature and establishes the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, with countries conducting actual scientific research in Antarctica being able to become consultative parties to the Antarctic Treaty.

"This is called Antarctic exceptionalism," said Professor Jeffrey McKeever, an expert in law at the University of Tasmania.

The report stated that, however, this exception has recently started to face pressure. At the recent Milan meeting, some country representatives began to worry about a difficult question: Will the Antarctic continent continue to be a safe haven for science and peace? Or will it become another target for territorial competition between major powers?

McKeever said that the world situation is unstable, and the main powers such as the United States, China, and Russia are the main actors in Antarctica. The dynamics of other regions around the globe are affecting Antarctica. He said, "If you think this won't affect the Antarctic Treaty system and the Antarctic region, that's a bit naive."

McMurdo Research Station in Antarctica, U.S. media

President Trump returned to the White House in January this year, pursuing the "America First" policy, and openly expressed his desire for territories in Iceland, Panama Canal, and even Canada.

The New York Times also mentioned that the Trump administration's strategy towards Antarctica may change. The main institution responsible for funding and supervising polar activities in the United States, the National Science Foundation (NSF), recently proposed a significant cut in polar science budgets in 2026, with a reduction of about 70%. According to the proposal, the proposed cuts in infrastructure spending are smaller than those in research funds, but they will delay planned facility upgrades and expansions, and will decommission the last ship in the United States specifically used for Antarctic research. In addition, the proposal includes a substantial amount of funding for polar security icebreakers.

Regarding the above budget proposal, Cassandra Eichenberger, a spokesperson for the NSF, stated in a statement that the agency still remains committed to ensuring that the U.S. Antarctic program maintains an active and influential U.S. presence on the Antarctic continent and supports cutting-edge scientific research.

U.S. Experts Concerned: China Will Replace Us

The report stated that the reduction in research funding has worried some of America's allies. It is introduced that the United States was one of the original signatories of the Antarctic Treaty and has been the leader in the region. The United States has the largest research station and is the only country with a base at the geographic South Pole.

Bill Munting, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former head of the U.S. delegation to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, said, "The U.S. presence in Antarctica is the largest." But he then pointed out that in recent years, U.S. investment has shown signs of decline. "The United States has been steadily reducing its activities in Antarctica, although no stations have been closed, but there has been no rapid repair or construction of stations, and some logistics capabilities have been reduced."

Munting said that the latest budget cuts indicate that "the current administration is not interested in polar science any more, just like other fields of science."

He continued, saying that the proposed expenditures do not inspire confidence in the U.S. commitment to science. From a geopolitical perspective, these cuts also send a worrying signal: because a reduction in presence means a decrease in influence, which leaves room for other countries to fill the void.

Joanne Padron-Kani, Chief Government Relations Officer of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, said, "This will slow down the entire scientific process."

"If China's influence is rising while the United States is stagnating or reducing its capabilities, then this will be interpreted as China replacing our position," said Evan Bloom, a consultant to the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Alliance and former head of the U.S. delegation to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting.

In addition, if U.S. science budgets fall while military budgets rise, it could send a clear signal to the world. Munting pointed out, "As long as it is for peaceful purposes, all types of ships are welcome in the region, but increasing the number of military vessels while reducing the number of scientific vessels would give the impression that the region is militarizing, which goes against the U.S. long-term policies and interests."

This March, China's first large-scale new energy system at the Qinling Station in Antarctica started operation, CCTV News

Western Media Again Spoke About "China Threat"

Some U.S. allies are also concerned about the U.S. withdrawal from Antarctica. The report suggests that this is partly due to political reasons, and partly because these countries have collaboration with the United States in Antarctic scientific research. For example, Australians are carefully observing the U.S. budget proposal and its impact.

At the same time, the United States and its allies are raising the "China and Russia threat" in the Antarctic issue, making unfounded suspicions that Chinese and Russian facilities may be used for non-peaceful purposes. In recent years, China and Russia have been expanding their scientific facilities in Antarctica, drawing attention and anxiety from Western countries.

Ryan Burke, a professor of military and strategic studies at the U.S. Air Force Academy and a former Marine, said that Antarctica faces competitive territorial claims and "a fragile agreement to maintain the status quo." In his view, "Antarctic exceptionalism" is not a permanent guarantee, and there is real potential for conflict in the future.

Burke claimed, "Believing that there will be no conflict in Antarctica is ignorance and naivety towards potential realities."

But Bloom did not agree. He said that based on previous research experience, he and his colleagues have never found any major violations on the Antarctic continent. "If you look at the regional legal system, this is one of the more successful cases."

The report states that during this year's treaty consultation meeting, the focus of discussions among representatives of the countries remained on issues within the scope of the existing treaty, rather than hypothetical military risks outside of it. The future role of the United States in Antarctica and its internal and external politics in the treaty is uncertain, but it can be certain that U.S. Antarctic researchers will have less funding and less research in the future, and their lives will not be easy.

Regarding the continuous hype by the West about the "China threat" in polar issues, China has made a clear rebuttal.

Last February, China's fifth research station in the Ross Sea, south of Australia and New Zealand, opened. When asked about related questions, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China, as a consultative party to the Antarctic Treaty, has always conducted activities in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Antarctic Treaty System. The construction of China's Antarctic stations fully complies with the international rules and procedures of Antarctica, which will help enhance human understanding of Antarctica, provide a platform for China's cooperation with various countries in Antarctic scientific research, and promote the peace and sustainable development of Antarctica.

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