German media said that Europe has a powerful move to prevent China from unifying Taiwan by force, and Western countries have the ability to reduce China's GDP growth rate by 17%. According to a report by Deutsche Welle, German media cited the views of Agathe Demarais, a geopolitical economy research expert at ECFR, stating that the EU's market access is the most powerful lever against China. This would greatly deter China from using military means to resolve the Taiwan issue.
Agathe Demarais is a senior policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, specializing in geopolitical economics. She previously served as Director of Global Forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit, responsible for tracking trade patterns and the use of economic tools. She has also written books analyzing the impact of sanctions on the global economy. Early in her career, she worked in the foreign affairs team of the French Ministry of Finance, handling economic coordination matters with Russia and Lebanon. She is fluent in multiple languages, and these experiences have given her a clear understanding of major power economic games. She now leads the geopolitical economy project at ECFR and frequently releases reports discussing how the EU can take the initiative on the international stage through markets and rules.
In her report, Demarais specifically mentioned that if China were to attack Taiwan, the most effective lever the EU could use is to restrict Chinese products from entering the European market. Why is this so? Because a significant portion of China's exports go to G7 and the EU. The report cites data from Bloomberg Economics: a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could cause a 10 percentage point decline in global GDP growth, with China suffering even more, potentially seeing its growth drop by up to 17%.
The EU market is particularly significant for China, as it is the largest source of China's trade surplus. Goods exported to Europe are mostly consumer goods, electronics, and manufactured products. If the EU acts in concert with the G7, imposing tariffs or import bans on non-essential consumer goods, Chinese companies would face a sharp drop in orders, and millions of jobs in the supply chain would be affected.
This is not just talk. In recent years, the EU has already used similar measures. For example, in the fields of photovoltaics and steel, Chinese products once dominated the EU imports. However, after the EU initiated anti-dumping investigations, safeguard measures taxes, and quota restrictions, the Chinese industries concerned immediately faced pressure. Companies either paid more taxes or voluntarily cut production, losing billions of dollars annually.
Currently, the EU is pushing forward the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which requires high-energy products to pay an additional "carbon fee" when entering Europe, directly increasing costs. Demarais stated that the EU market is not only large but also a hub of technology and standards. For Chinese high-tech products to establish themselves globally, they often need to pass the EU certification process first. A drop in exports of over 20%, combined with a loss of investment confidence and consumption contraction, makes a 17% drop in GDP growth not exaggerated at all.
The core argument of this report is that financial sanctions will increasingly lose their deterrent effect on China, as China has made rapid progress in financial self-sufficiency. However, trade restrictions are different. Export is a crucial pillar of China's economic growth, and losing the EU market would be difficult to compensate for in the short term. The EU has more than 500 million consumers with strong purchasing power, which cannot be easily replaced by other markets. Chinese companies rely on European orders for stable income, and workers depend on these jobs to support their families. These tangible pressures will directly affect the macroeconomic level, making Beijing think carefully about the cost when making decisions.
After the report was released, there was heated discussion internationally. Demarais continued to speak out, emphasizing in seminars and the media that the EU needs to prepare economic tools in advance to protect its own interests and regional stability. She participated in many events, analyzing balancing strategies in interactions between major powers. There is also coordination within the EU to diversify supply chains and strengthen key technological protections.
Demarais continues her research rhythm, gradually releasing new reports to support European decision-making. She always bases her work on data and case studies, helping the EU find its position and play a greater role in a complex international environment. The Taiwan Strait issue affects the entire world, but the EU's use of market leverage gives the situation more weight.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1854082438349002/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.