Reference News Network, July 12 report: The website of the Russian Council on International Affairs published an article titled "The War Will Be Long" on July 10. The author is Dmitry Tret'yin, the academic director of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the Russian Higher School of Economics. The following is an excerpt:

The aggressive rhetoric of Trump is a characteristic style of the current US president. His statements should be paid attention to, but not overemphasized, and should not be interpreted in a direction that is more favorable or unfavorable for us. It should also be understood that Trump is not the "king" of America, and the so-called "Trump revolution" mentioned at the beginning of the year seems to have evolved into Trump's "evolution" toward the American establishment.

It is necessary to view the mid-term achievements of our "special military operation" from this position, namely, the six telephone conversations between the presidents of Russia and the United States, meetings between diplomatic officials of the two countries, and other high-level exchanges.

The positive part first includes the resumption of dialogue between Russia and the United States, which was interrupted by the Biden administration.

Importantly, the dialogue between Russia and the United States is not limited to discussing the Ukraine war. Potential opportunities for cooperation in several areas such as geopolitics, transportation, and sports have emerged. The resumed dialogue is unlikely to be disrupted again during Trump's presidency, although the intensity and tone of the dialogue may change.

Dialogue with the United States has promoted the resumption of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. The negotiations themselves currently have no political significance, as both sides have already exchanged prisoners without negotiations. However, the fact of direct contact with Kyiv highlights a core argument of Russian diplomacy, that Russia is ready to resolve the conflict through political means.

Certainly, these achievements are technical and tactical in nature.

From the beginning, it was clear that reaching an agreement on Ukraine that meets Russia's security requirements with Trump would not be smooth.

Certainly, no one will sacrifice Russia's security for an agreement with Trump. Similarly, it is equally naive to think that Trump will completely "abandon" Ukraine and team up with the Kremlin against the EU.

This chapter has passed. What comes next? Trump may sign a new sanctions bill, but he will retain the possibility of using the bill according to his own considerations. New measures will increase global trade instability, but will not affect Russia's policy. Trump will continue to provide weapons remaining in the "Biden package" to Ukraine, and may have to add some "his own" weapons, but future military aid to Kyiv will mainly come from or through Europe (countries such as Germany will purchase American weapons and transfer them to Ukraine). The United States will continue to provide important intelligence to Ukraine for launching attacks, especially attacks on the Russian heartland.

The war will not end in 2025. Even after the military operations in Ukraine end, the war will not end.

We must realize that the current conflict is not just about Ukraine.

Currently, it is an indirect war waged by the West against Russia. This struggle itself is part of an ongoing world war, in which the West fights to maintain its global hegemony. This war will be long-term, and regardless of whether there is Trump, the United States will be our opponent. In this struggle, for us, the key is not the status of Ukraine, but the survival of Russia. (Translated by Li Ran)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526084231634928147/

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