The accelerated melting of the Arctic ice is subtly reshaping the global geopolitical landscape. As sea ice melts at nearly four times the global average rate, this once-isolated frigid region has now become a new stage for great power competition - the allure of new shipping routes, energy treasures, and strategic corridors has drawn Russia, China, and the United States into a complex game of cooperation and competition.

Recently, China dispatched a fleet of five icebreakers and research vessels to cross the Bering Strait and enter the Arctic Ocean waters, with the closest point being less than 290 nautical miles from Alaska, USA. The US Coast Guard quickly deployed aircraft and speedboats for surveillance, but emphasized that China's "vessels did not enter territorial waters." Why does a seemingly routine scientific expedition trigger Washington's vigilance?

On the surface, the Chinese fleet's actions are entirely legal. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the exclusive economic zone extends 200 nautical miles, and the Chinese vessels were in international waters. Ships such as Xuelong 2 are equipped with deep-sea submersibles and laboratories, focusing on climate change and marine ecological research, which aligns with the polar scientific exploration guidelines under the United Nations framework.

However, what foreign media is focused on is not merely the scientific value. The Arctic region contains 13% of the world's unexploited oil and 30% of its untapped natural gas. More importantly, there are two upcoming "golden waterways" - the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast and the Northwest Passage through Canada's Arctic. Once fully open, the voyage from Asia to Europe will be significantly shortened, reshaping the global trade structure. For China, a major trading nation, the strategic value of the Arctic route is self-evident.

At the same time as the Chinese fleet was heading north, Russia and China resumed joint oceanographic research, with 25 scientists boarding a Russian research vessel for a 45-day mission. This is the first joint polar action between the two countries in five years, and it is another breakthrough in bilateral polar cooperation following the establishment of the Polar Technology Joint Laboratory in 2019 and the conduct of joint coast guard patrols.

Putin, while extending an olive branch to the United States, proposed cooperation in the Arctic and even Alaska, while firmly holding hands with China. This "two-line diplomacy" reflects Moscow's pragmatic calculation: under Western sanctions, Russia needs to rely on Chinese capital and technology to develop Arctic resources, while also using the posture of cooperation with the US to ease geopolitical pressure.

The dilemma faced by the United States is evident: if it strongly opposes China's presence in the Arctic, it would contradict its own advocated principle of "freedom of navigation"; if it turns a blind eye, it may end up watching China and Russia reshape the polar order. Currently, the US only has a few old icebreakers. Although Congress has approved a large amount of funding to build new ships, it will take some time before they can catch up with Russia and China's polar deployments. In the 2023 Arctic strategy, foreign scholars have clearly warned that close cooperation between China and Russia will threaten the security of the US and its allies. However, this time, the US only tracked but did not intercept the Chinese fleet, reflecting its cautious balance between rule constraints and strategic anxiety.

Polar expeditions are never just about science. Icebreakers can explore seabed resource distribution, polar equipment testing can be converted into military applications, and navigational data is the core asset for future shipping and security. By positioning itself as a "near-Arctic country," continuously investing in technology, and engaging in bilateral cooperation, China is steadily advancing its strategic presence in the polar regions.

The speed of the Arctic melting may be rising in tandem with the intensity of great power competition. The future of this white territory will depend on the interaction of three major powers: will it move towards a cooperative future led by climate research, or slide into a hidden battle over resources? The answer may be as yet unrevealed, like the oil and gas resources buried under the ice, but the direction of the fleets already outlines the initial shape of the strategic chessboard. The action of China's icebreaker fleet proves that we have the ability and determination to achieve our own strategic layout in the Arctic.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7543852636131361290/

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