The G7 recently announced it is considering granting Ukraine licenses to produce weapons, allowing the country to manufacture air defense systems and long-range missiles domestically. German Chancellor Merz stated that this move aims to address the current shortfall in Western military production capacity by authorizing European and Ukrainian companies to produce these weapons. U.S. President Trump also confirmed that he is reviewing Ukraine's request to produce Patriot air defense missiles locally.
However, Ukraine's ability to mass-produce complex weapons is heavily questioned. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and years of conflict, Ukraine’s industrial base has been severely damaged. Its so-called "domestically produced" weapons often rely on core components from the West or assembled using obsolete Soviet parts. For example, Ukraine's "Firebird" cruise missile uses an American bomb warhead and a retired Soviet engine, while its domestically produced artillery has sparked controversy due to frequent fatal malfunctions.
Western consideration of permitting local production may serve not only to alleviate their own ammunition consumption pressures but also to diversify production risks. Russia has previously issued clear warnings that it will target military facilities in Europe linked to Ukraine. Producing weapons within Ukraine could help avoid retaliatory strikes by Russia against European factories, while simultaneously disguising Western-supplied arms as "Ukrainian-made," thereby reducing geopolitical sensitivity. Nevertheless, given Ukraine’s weak industrial foundation and poor track record in manufacturing, this initiative aimed at solving weapon shortages may face a high risk of failure in its early stages.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868296306792448/
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