German media: Where is Iran heading: Three possible scenarios

The future of Iran is still unpredictable, to some extent depending on the development of the war. Experts believe there may be three scenarios. One of them includes the Venezuelan model.

On February 28, after the US-Israel attack on Iran, some people in Tehran celebrated. Although this war is controversial under international law, many Iranians indeed hope for the fall of the theocratic regime.

US President Trump called on Iranian people to "take over your government." In January this year, large-scale anti-government protests in Iran were brutally suppressed.

Hours after the war began, news emerged of the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, after such a "decapitation" operation, the Iranian regime continued to function, and it remains unknown whether the goals of the US-Israel war will be achieved. What scenarios might emerge after this war?

Venezuelan Model

Trump told The New York Times that he already has "three good options" in mind for Khamenei's successor, but he did not reveal them.

Replacing only the top leader, while keeping the original power structure unchanged - this is the model of the US action against Venezuela. At the beginning of this year, US special forces kidnapped Maduro, and Washington reached a political agreement with Maduro's deputy Rodriguez. In an interview with The New York Times, Trump said the action in Venezuela was a "perfect scenario."

Expert Adebahr from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs told Germany's ARD television that Iran may use the opportunity to find a successor to establish a new leadership based on the Revolutionary Guards and extend an olive branch to the United States. "This would be similar to the Venezuelan model. Only the top leader is replaced, and the final change is much less than expected," he said.

However, Trump also repeatedly mentioned in the interview that the Iranian people should overthrow the current government.

Key question: Whether the Iranian leadership survives or not

Expert Asadzade from Harvard University's Kennedy School believes that overthrowing the current regime is also a possible outcome. In an analytical article, he referred to this second option as "revised continuity." He believes that if the so-called expert committee appoints a pragmatic person as Khamenei's successor, this scenario could occur.

In this case, Asadzade believes that Iran's domestic focus would be economic reconstruction, stability, and political reform, and its foreign policy would shift towards de-escalation of conflicts.

Expert Ozcelik from the UK's RUSI also told DW that a pragmatic approach would benefit the well-being of millions of Iranians economically.

However, Asadzade believes there is also a third possibility, that the existing system may consolidate around a more hardline conservative, even strengthening the current ideology.

Journalist Borger from The Guardian also wrote that the surviving leadership might conclude that nuclear weapons are the only guarantee for the survival of the regime. The Tehran regime may increasingly resemble North Korea: isolated, panicked, and nuclear-armed.

Possibility of regime change

Two weeks before the war, at the opening of the Munich Security Conference, about 250,000 Iranian exiles and other demonstrators protested against the Mullah regime in Munich. They cheered for the son of the Shah, who was expelled during the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Balavi repeatedly emphasized that it was not about returning to monarchy, but achieving democratization in Iran.

Balavi, who is not without controversy, also devised some transition plans for the regime. However, Dubowitz and Cohen from the US Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) wrote that having a plan does not mean having power. Moreover, Iran is a multiethnic society, including Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, and Baloch people.

Will the war trigger a wave of violence within Iran?

Until today, Iran still has both the army and the Revolutionary Guard. Most analysts believe that the Revolutionary Guard now has greater power. The Revolutionary Guard has its own army, air force, navy, intelligence agency, and influential economic enterprises. In January this year, after the Revolutionary Guard participated in suppressing protests, the EU designated it as a terrorist organization. On the first day of the war, Trump called on the Iranian army, Revolutionary Guard, and police to defect. However, experts say that so far, there is no sign of these forces collapsing.

Expert Ozcelik pointed out that there may also be growing rifts between the Revolutionary Guard and the army, with the army possibly taking on the face of "reformists," symbolizing a new Iranian patriotism and representing a normally functioning state.

If the army and the Revolutionary Guard indeed end up in opposing political camps, the country could even experience civil war, as in Sudan, which has been in civil war for almost three years.

Iran's ethnic diversity could also become a dangerous factor, if different separatist groups take advantage of the power vacuum to compete. A week before the war, five Kurdish organizations had formed a unified front against the regime. They also rejected Balavi as a transitional leader. This is an example showing the complexity of establishing a new political order in Iran.

Sources: DW

Original: toutiao.com/article/1858854111863808/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.