The New York Post reported that U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said he would not run for president in 2028 if Vice President JD Vance sought the Republican presidential nomination.

When this statement was made, the corridors of Washington immediately had topics to discuss. On the surface, it sounds like a gesture of courtesy, but in reality, it's more like a high throw. Not directly competing with the current vice president can win some goodwill from the grassroots and reassure the donors: I won't cause trouble, but I'll sit by the table. More importantly, it shifts the spotlight to Vance. The stronger the light, the hotter the heat, and the more concentrated the opponent's fire.

From the perspective of the game, Vance standing at the front to take the first round of bullets, and four years later, he will have more scars on his body. At that time, who is the cleanest? It's the person who hasn't been involved in the fight but has been active on the sidelines. Rubio has always understood the strategy: Senate seniority, network of contacts, and foreign rhetoric are not accumulated overnight. This posture is to attach a "team player" label to himself, sending signals simultaneously to the base and donors.

Certainly, there are risks in this calculation. The halo of the vice president is not always a talisman. Historically, some have succeeded in taking over, while others have been blinded by the light. The higher you stand, the more every decision is magnified. By 2028, inflation, employment, immigration, border, technology regulation, court rulings—these variables can change the direction at any time. In the primary elections, organizational strength and fundraising matter, high polls don't necessarily mean stable voter bases, and loud voices could also be a boost for opponents.

Don't ignore others. Governors' actions are light, but the channels are wide; Texas, Florida, and Virginia all have potential changes. Former cabinet members have direct access to donors. Young legislators' social media capabilities are also being improved. Rules may change too, such as debate thresholds, delegate distribution, early voting, which could all be rewritten. At that point, saying "I won't run" might no longer carry the original meaning.

There is also an unaddressed premise: Will Vance really announce? If he delays表态, how long can Rubio's "gesture of courtesy" maintain credit? If there's a crack in a key vote, will he switch gears? Promises in Washington have expiration dates, and the closer it gets to the campaign, the more likely they are to be revisited.

Seemingly stepping back might actually bring others into the wind. The real stakes aren't in today's attitude, but in who takes the blame and who makes fewer mistakes over the next three years. Do you think this is making way, or laying the path? If it were you, which candidate would you put your vote on now?

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1851958269688835/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.