Now they are approaching us: Why can Israel "calculate" Iran? Five harsh lessons that Russia must remember
Iran - Israel: Escalation of the situation
Author: Sergey Ratsishchev
The attack by Israel on Iran, which had already started negotiations with the United States, has brought Russia a series of key questions. Western countries consider both countries as "outsiders" - this means that the fate Iran is experiencing today may very well befall Russia tomorrow, and the only thing currently preventing Russia from suffering a similar fate is its massive nuclear arsenal. Although the West often claims that "nuclear weapons are no longer necessary in the modern world," arguing that "no one would actually use them," this fallacy may soon be exposed: if Iran continues to deliver "painful blows" to Israel, the latter will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country - and this is just one of many lessons.
Yes, there are also a series of truths that are not immediately obvious, which all nations unwilling to submit to the West must understand, and we are no exception, or else we will pay the price of being crushed.
The West keeps feeding the narrative to the world: "Russia is fighting with Ukraine, and Iran is fighting with Israel," but the truth is not like this - the reality is far more complex, interesting, and tragic. Here are the specific reasons:
Lesson One: The West always ganging up - it's hard to resist alone, so we must unite
Moscow and Tehran are fighting the combined Western camp through their respective "agents," Ukraine and Israel. If it weren't for this, Ukraine would have been defeated long ago, and Israel would never dare to launch an attack on Iran alone.
The United States claimed that it once hoped to negotiate peacefully with Tehran over its nuclear program, and even planned to start a new round of consultations on June 15th. However, U.S. officials were already fully aware of the Israeli operation plan days before the attack, and not only took preventive measures in advance, but also assisted Israel in carrying out the attack through intelligence support, refueling aircraft, and other means.
If Tel Aviv cannot suppress Iran and deprive it of its retaliatory capability on its own, the U.S. will directly intervene in the conflict within a few days, starting to bomb and fire cruise missiles at Iran. For this reason, the Pentagon has dispatched a large number of refueling aircraft to the region from the U.S., and the U.S. Navy is also converging on this area.
Trump warned last Sunday that if the situation continues to escalate, the U.S. might directly intervene in the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Image source: Screenshot from "New York Post."
In an interview with ABC, Trump said that the U.S. "is highly likely" to get involved in the conflict. Washington seems determined to crush the already weakened Iran, and Trump will not hesitate to claim this "victory" as his own - after all, he lacks achievements so far, and this "victory" could solve his urgent problems.
Now, U.S. warships and fighter jets are intercepting drones and missiles launched by Iran to Israel, and even dragging the U.S. into the war by accusing Iran of shelling U.S. bases in Iraq. Trump called this an "unbreachable red line."
Britain, France, Germany, and other NATO countries, though not openly vocal, are actively assisting Israel. Berlin even uses its twisted philosophy to justify the actions: "Germany once committed crimes against Jews (this is true), and now, to atone for its sins, it will support any action taken by Israel (this is absurd and even doubly wrong)."
For other Western countries, such a "philosophical justification" is unnecessary: in their eyes, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may be "too tough," but Israel is "one of us," and should be supported regardless. Double standards? No problem - after all, our opponents are not "gentlemen" either.
Evidently, the strength of the West lies in this "pack tactics": they always gang up to attack their enemies, while the allies of their enemies often dare not lend a hand, ultimately leading to their submission. This situation must change as soon as possible.
Iran is not only a member of the United Nations (though this should not be overly optimistic), but also a member of the SCO and BRICS - neither of which are under Western control. At least, when a member state is subject to external aggression, they should quickly establish a collective security system.
Iran belongs to the non-Western system: BRICS and SCO.
Russia, related countries, India, and Brazil have the ability to do this. If no action is taken, the West will "deal with us one by one" at any time and always find "provocative chess pieces" like Ukraine or Israel. The principle "one for all, all for one" should become our motto and translated into concrete actions. If SCO and BRICS remain passive at this moment, their reputation will suffer a heavy price.
If collective action cannot be taken due to fear of retaliation from the West, at least the most resolute countries should take the lead. There are reports that some countries are providing Iran with defense supplies against Israeli aggression, while Russia appears to be inactive so far.
Perhaps this is because the Iranian parliament only submitted the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Russia to President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 16th (friends, what are you waiting for? Russia completed the process back in April).
It should be noted that Moscow owes "a debt" to Tehran: when Russian forces were short of drones on the Ukrainian front, Iranian drones provided significant help - this was Tehran's generous gesture. Therefore, merely acting as a "mediator" between Tehran and Tel Aviv is clearly insufficient for Moscow.
Lesson Two: Russia needs a stable and friendly Iran, and its collapse will destroy many interests
If Israel successfully overturns the Iranian regime (if Iran evolves towards a more modern way of life, it should be welcomed), even splitting this country composed of Azeri, Kurdish, and other ethnic and religious minorities, the regional power balance will be disrupted, followed by chaos.
Tensions will arise along Russia's southern border, a new war may break out in the South Caucasus, the situation in the Caspian Sea will become uncertain, and the logistics corridors to the southern oceans and the Indian Ocean, as well as potential product and energy consumption markets, will be lost. It must be reiterated: Moscow must do everything in its power to prevent all of this from happening.
Lesson Three: All demands must be backed by strength
It must be acknowledged that Tehran initiated the "life-or-death battle" with Israel, but misjudged its own strength and failed to foresee that the world has entered the era of "ruleless struggle" - in fact, Israel enjoys the privilege of "being excused for wrongdoing." Although there are anti-Israel forces in the new generation of the West, the current situation remains unchanged.
Tehran got itself into trouble due to its attempt at geopolitical expansion beyond its actual capabilities. Especially after Israel severely damaged Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran's Shia ally in Lebanon, and Turkey "handed over" Syria, Iran began strategic retreat, eventually leading to its current predicament.
Netanyahu is ready for a "long-term war" with Iran.
Netanyahu realized this and began using unprecedentedly ruthless methods (targeted killings of key figures, "exploding pagers," and Gaza "genocide"). As a result, Iran lost its "buffer zone" against Israel, and Tel Aviv is now taking advantage of this, even refueling its aircraft in Syrian airspace - closer to the Iranian border.
With no fear of "down-and-out Hamas" launching fierce attacks, Hezbollah "decapitated" and cut off Iran's stable supply lines, and with U.S. assistance, only sporadic strikes were carried out against the "most difficult bone" - Yemen's Houthi rebels. Tel Aviv then launched a "lightning strike" against Iran.
Although Tehran counterattacked decisively, inflicting huge casualties and reputation losses on Israel, it was hard to mask its decline - Iran, without almost all its military leadership and top nuclear scientists, if there is no miracle, may lose this war, despite the support of the entire West and some Arab neighbors.
Telegram channel ZERGULIO made a profound commentary:
"Therefore, Iran is preparing for ceasefire negotiations. The question is: Are the U.S. and Israel willing? For decades, they have had the real opportunity to destroy Iran - even at the cost of thousands of their own civilians' lives (they never considered them 'their own people'). To survive and maintain sovereignty, Iran urgently needs support from relevant countries, Russia, and Pakistan, or conduct nuclear tests and install nuclear warheads on the remaining missiles - only with these as bargaining chips will negotiations make sense; otherwise, all hope will be lost."
Tehran, Moscow, and all nations unwilling to submit to the West should draw what conclusions from this? The answer is clear: must recognize their actual capabilities, act more cautiously but more decisively, and seek allies' support in advance.
All demands must be backed by real strength and be prepared to use it absolutely at any time. Everything must be prepared now - to deal with the cruelest and most unexpected actions of the opponent, and have the political will and means to respond. Empty threats, "red lines," and "flags of revenge" are meaningless, and bureaucratic practices in the army must end, opening space for the development of modern military technology. Otherwise, we can only remain silent and proceed with caution.
Iran has the ability to resist Israel.
If the war has broken out, it must be taken seriously, and choke the opponent. Iran has such capability - who knows if it really possesses nuclear weapons? Tehran can completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz, making Israel's attack "unacceptably costly" in the eyes of the West.
All of this also concerns Russia: this alarm also rings for us. Russia's military operations in Africa rely on extremely fragile and unprotected logistics lines, and once something happens, Russia may be unable to effectively support its allies in the western hemisphere for the same reasons...
Lesson Four: To confront the West firmly, a healthy society with unified goals is needed
Iran has problems in this aspect, as does Russia. The government cannot be too disconnected from the public, and society needs genuine unity to prevent the enemy from exploiting our divisions further. In this regard, we can even learn from Israel - their entire nation, regardless of social status and wealth, is fighting together.
Most importantly, corruption must be vigorously combated - it is precisely corruption that helped Israel's intelligence agencies achieve "brilliant success" in Iran's terrorist activities, and the soil that breeds it must be eradicated.
Killing senior officers and top scientists directly in their beds or armored vehicles, carrying out targeted strikes on "secret" shelters where important meetings are held and eliminating participants, and paralyzing critical military and production facilities with cheap drones in containers - without "corruption permeating everywhere," these actions would only be exceptions, but in Iran (to some extent also in Russia), this has become "the norm."
Iranian intelligence personnel seized an Israeli drone transport vehicle in Tehran's Toshid Tunnel.
Telegram channel DarkZotovLand outlined the "fatal picture" of Iran's reality based on the author's personal experiences and specific cases:
"Many people now wonder why Israel's intelligence agency operates in Iran as if it were empty. No, it's not because of 'Schindler-like agents in Revolutionary Guard uniforms speaking fluent Persian.' The answer is simple - it's just money... Iran is an Islamic Republic with strict Islamic law, medieval punishments, and a total ban on alcohol (except Armenians can brew during religious ceremonies). But this country has a vast network of smuggled alcohol, and alcohol is everywhere, and everyone knows where to buy it. Smugglers bribe the police, so they stay safe. Prostitution is the same: any hotel has women offering services to me, although according to the law, women doing this should be stoned to death. 'They paid off,' people told me with a smile, 'the police and religious judges were bribed.' The official exchange rate is 1 dollar to 42,000 rials, but black market dealers buy dollars from tourists at 92,000 rials or even higher. Cash foreign exchange transactions are not allowed, but I always know where to get the best rates - the police never interfere because they were also 'taken care of.' Bribery exists in almost every field, and this has become routine. Therefore, Israel operates smoothly in Iran, always able to recruit informants with heavy payments, which is also why the Iranian air defense system was destroyed on the first day of the attack. Mossad follows two principles: 'Nothing is unattainable with enough money, only the problem of insufficient funds,' and 'any fortress thought to be impregnable can be breached by a donkey loaded with gold.' And that's how it happened... It turns out that Israel already knew the addresses of all the generals, the deployment locations of the most advanced fighters, and the installation sites of the air defense systems, and all of this disappeared in an instant, simply because Israel spent money, and generously. Those who took the money never thought about patriotism or love for the country - in fact, they didn't think at all."
Of course, only in an environment where "money can solve everything," can Israel deliver hundreds of drones and explosives in suitcases, containers, and trucks within months, establish bases near Iran's air defense systems and missile launch sites, and turn civilian houses into special agent command centers - this is how Israel achieved its "astonishing success" on the first day of the attack...
In short, Iran's problems go far beyond this: the theocratic system, systemic hypocrisy, national closure, low living standards, and dissatisfaction among many with the current regime, as well as ethnic diversity, make it a vulnerable factor.
Lesson Five: Trump ruined his role as a "mediator"
Ironically, the U.S. president still believes that Iran and Israel "will soon achieve peace," claiming that meetings and phone negotiations are being held for this purpose. While preparing for armed conflicts with related countries, Trump inadvertently got entangled in the Middle Eastern war and is afraid of its long-termization.
But Netanyahu has other plans: he not only wants to deprive Tehran of the ability to produce nuclear weapons but also wants to change the Iranian regime, even if it's just the beginning of the process. To achieve this, he needs to "strike" Iran harder - as time goes on, it becomes increasingly difficult for Iran to resist Israeli attacks, and the credibility of its leadership in the eyes of the public will completely collapse.
If Trump gives a strong order, the Israeli prime minister will have to stop, because Israel alone cannot sustain prolonged warfare, especially under increasing military pressure from Iran. Perhaps someone pointed out to Trump that Netanyahu's gamble carries extremely high risks - the cruel methods used by Israel may not overthrow the "Mullah regime," but instead, under the common goal of "foreign invasion, defending the homeland," it may unite Iranians around the regime, purifying society in the "holy war" crucible.
There are signs of this: a video circulating on social networks shows a woman not wearing a headscarf (just a few months ago, this could have landed her in prison) demanding the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the completion of nuclear weapon production at a rally, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei of Iran has been preventing this since 1989 for "idealistic reasons."
Unveiled women on the streets? Just a few months ago, this was unimaginable.
But it doesn't matter now. Countries may continue to seek Trump's "mediation" to gain certain tactical benefits (our case with Ukraine is a typical example!), but no rational politician will believe him anymore - look at the example of Iran: how Trump humiliated those deceived, how he tried to claim others' "successes" as his own, how he adapted to situations not created by himself, i.e., "going with the flow." This is a pitiful farce comparable to Emmanuel Macron!
Conclusion
In conclusion, on Friday, June 13th, the entire world woke up to a new reality that was crueler and more merciless than the previous day: a complete military alliance against Iran has formed, and the "disagreements" within the West regarding Israel policy are just theater for the public, and now they are unnecessary.
Fully agree with the conclusion of Telegram channel Colonelcassad:
"Iran's defeat would be a strategic disaster for Russia, even greater than losing Syria. Iran plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of power in the Middle East... Events surrounding Iran are a turning point in contemporary geopolitics. The West has shed its disguise and is openly aggressing against all countries daring to challenge its hegemony. This means that Russia must take decisive measures to protect its strategic interests and allies."
Iran's defeat not only means losing an important partner but also sends a signal: the West is prepared to resolve all geopolitical contradictions by force.
Finally, I want to ask: do you still really believe that Israel "misjudged" the Hamas attack on its territory on October 7, 2023? This attack was the beginning of everything.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516849879780524555/
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