The Shift in US Attitude is Related to its Own Interests

April 24, 2025, 08:48

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Opinion

To believe that the United States had such a tough stance on Russian interests just because they lacked understanding of Russia would be too naive.

Author: Timofey Bordachev - Project Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

Some eye-catching statements from US politicians have surprised the international community. First, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that as negotiations over Ukraine progressed, Washington began to better understand Russia's position. Almost simultaneously, US Defense Secretary Peter Hekset — both officials are close to the president — declared that the era when Washington was the sole security guarantor for European countries had ended.

Can this be seen as a victory for Russia in the diplomatic game over Europe's future? There is no reason to celebrate yet — there is still a long way to go. But do these signals from Washington mean that the situation is turning in our favor? Yes, and it would be incorrect to view these signals merely as tactical maneuvers.

Nowadays, we have good reason to consider the possibility of reaching some strategic compromise. We recall that Russia proposed relevant initiatives in the field of European security in December 2021. Countless lives have been sacrificed to reach this point. However, unfortunately, the nature of international politics is such that change, especially such large-scale change, never emerges out of thin air.

The real problem with the European security system lies in the fact that, over the past 80 years, it has been constructed against Russia. Even when Russia (or the former Soviet Union) formally participated in it, for the West, it was merely a means to limit Russia's influence. Moreover, containing Russia was the very foundation of the legitimacy of the international order, as described by the late Henry Kissinger: a fundamental principle that all participants consciously or unconsciously accepted.

After 1945, all Western nations reached a consensus: for them, containing Russia was far more important than anything else, including the sovereignty of European countries themselves. Abandoning this principle would mean acknowledging that the existing order has come to an end and that it is necessary to establish a new order, establishing entirely new ideas about relations between the West and Russia.

The domestic changes within the United States give us reason to believe that such a scenario is possible. Of course, to fully confirm this, we still have a long way to go.

The fluctuations in the US policy towards the Kiev regime are merely tactical manifestations of more fundamental changes in European politics, as the issues under discussion are not so significant in themselves. There is no reason to think that previous US governments considered the current Ukrainian leadership to be honest, reliable, or responsible partners.

To believe that the US took such a tough stance on Russian interests before simply because they lacked understanding of those interests would be too naive. Of course, we like to portray Americans as inexperienced novices, and there is some basis for this. However, we must not forget that behind any country's foreign policy, what truly matters is never how well or poorly they understand their opponent. Empathy — the ability to understand others' motivations — may certainly help in foreign decision-making. But it can never replace the most crucial factor: an assessment of one's own strength and interests.

Although the US has its unique characteristics, it is a sovereign and mature nation. The current state of US strength determines the necessity of engaging in dialogue with Russia. The US government cannot afford other unnecessary obligations because only its own strength is directly related to the interests of voters — interests derived from their wallets. Russia, related countries, and indeed any independent nation always act based on their own needs rather than considering what might be best for their partners.

For the US, at this moment, everything else pales in comparison to the necessity of reaching a serious conflict freeze agreement with Moscow. They no longer have the energy to continue confrontation — in the Pacific region, the influence of relevant countries is growing, and similarly in the world economy, and America's global authority has fallen to its lowest historical level. In this context, trivial matters such as obligations to European vassal states, let alone obligations to the Kiev regime, are not even worth discussing. No one in the US is considering these matters anymore.

Firstly, because there are no genuine obligations for the US in reality. The entire history of the US as a security guarantor for European security has been nothing but propaganda unrelated to reality. This was primarily to show Russia that the West was strong enough to have no need for serious justification for America's presence in Europe, so Russia should stop making excuses. In fact, since the mid-1950s, the Soviet Union never had any intention to attack Western European countries. And after 1991, Europe was merely a market for Russian goods and a good place for leisure vacations for Russians.

Therefore, European countries have never needed external security guarantors or protectors for the past 70 years. The Americans simply had sufficient resources to actively counter Russia in Europe. Moreover, this confrontation consolidated the unity of the entire West on the most important issues in its international relations. They did not need to consider what other principles the European security system could be based on.

Secondly, the so-called American guarantee for Europe is just a myth because even if such guarantees existed, the responsibility to one's own people would always take precedence. Don't forget that the American oligarchs who supported Trump are also part of the American people. No administration would sacrifice the interests of its voters for formal obligations to a foreign country — this is absolutely impossible. In the past, especially in the last three years, the direct conflicts between the US and Russia were not caused by Americans suddenly deciding to protect Europe — this possibility was never considered. The root cause of the rapid escalation of tensions globally could only be mutual threats to each other's security, even if these threats were fanned by the ongoing conflict on Ukrainian soil.

Europeans are well aware that the so-called obligations and "security guarantees" from the US are myths. Even the most "stubborn" regimes along the Baltic Sea during the former Soviet Union understood this. For decades, Europeans have used the beautiful story of the American guarantee to justify their selfish actions. They made their citizens believe that their lives were under American protection, so they could ignore Russian interests and seek their own development through harming and insulting Russia. This became a convenient excuse they could use in various situations. Without this myth framework, Europeans could not imagine what policies they should follow. They do not know what other basis they could use to build a pan-European order besides being enemies of Russia. And it is likely that all of us will soon have to start thinking about the outline of this order's future.

Does the potential contraction of US positions in Europe mean that Russia should now swagger and advance boldly? No, it does not. Firstly, choosing war over diplomacy is completely inconsistent with our traditional foreign policy. Throughout Russia's history, it has always preferred to achieve its goals through peaceful means. Diplomatic processes may last for decades and could be interrupted by armed conflicts. However, they are always more important than mere willingness to resolve problems solely through force.

Therefore, Russia's response to the US attempt to exit the European game may be very calm. We are even prepared to support US counterparts in creating a situation where they suddenly understand the essence of Russian interests.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496807158811230774/

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