Within the past 48 hours, Washington and Moscow have simultaneously sent the clearest and most provocative signals: U.S. President Trump made a rare direct statement that he would continue to supply weapons to Ukraine; while the Kremlin responded with the most extreme demands, indicating it has never truly believed in diplomatic negotiations as a way to end the war.

The statements from both leaders, which appear to be independent, reveal that this war, which has lasted nearly three years, is reaching a dangerous but real turning point: after miscalculations, repeated actions, and political maneuvering, both sides have finally removed their diplomatic disguises and returned to the battlefield.

Trump "Very Dissatisfied": A Sharp Turn in Attitude Toward Putin

On July 8, U.S. President Trump said during a cabinet meeting at the White House that he had approved the delivery of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and was considering whether to support a new round of sanctions against Russia proposed by the Senate. He openly stated that he was "very dissatisfied" with Russian President Putin: "He said a lot of good things, and his attitude has always been good, but in the end, it meant nothing."

More notably, this was not the first time Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Putin. On July 3, just days after a phone call between the two, Putin reiterated that Russia "would not abandon its set goals in Ukraine," to which Trump responded: "This conversation lasted a long time, but there was no progress, and I felt upset."

"We Must Do This": Trump's Sudden Shift in Position

On Monday, Trump spoke openly at a press conference at the White House: "We will deliver more weapons to Ukraine. They must be able to defend themselves. They are suffering heavy losses." Behind this statement lies not only a policy shift, but also a strategic reckoning.

Just a few days ago, the Trump administration had announced a pause on delivering a new round of military aid to Ukraine, citing "assessing the situation," and even hinted that this might be used to gain the Kremlin's willingness to negotiate. Now, this posture has abruptly ended, shifting into a near-Biden-like commitment - a firm support for Ukraine's self-defense.

Trump's Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, nodded in agreement behind him, although this statement contradicted the Pentagon's position just a few days earlier. To ease external concerns, the Department of Defense later issued a statement saying: "According to the President's instructions, the Department of Defense is delivering more defensive weapons to Ukraine to ensure that the Ukrainian people can defend themselves, while we are also working toward achieving lasting peace."

Last Friday, after a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump immediately stated that it was "the most productive conversation we've had so far." Zelensky hoped the U.S. would increase the supply of Patriot air defense systems to counter Russia's increasingly upgraded missile attacks. More importantly, Zelensky mentioned "joint weapon production" - meaning he tried to shift the issue of Ukraine from "unilateral aid" to "bilateral cooperation."

Biden's Approach, Trump's Calculation

Trump's style differs completely from Biden's. In terms of foreign military assistance, Biden tends to make every detail of each aid public, from HIMARS rockets, tanks, to F-16 fighter jets, each one exposed in the media and publicly debated.

Trump seems unwilling to follow in his footsteps. He chooses ambiguity to retain diplomatic flexibility, avoiding provoking Russia prematurely, while trying to win support from "anti-war Republicans" domestically.

However, such a strategy is not reliable in the face of reality. The Biden administration faced criticism for delaying the authorization of ATACMS long-range missiles, eventually having to give in to pressure from Ukraine. Trump now faces a similar situation - no matter how many nice words he says, without the "support" of weapons, it will only lead to defeat on the battlefield.

Putin's Rejection: Peace Under the Name of Humiliation

At the same time, the Kremlin responded to Western pressure with an equally hard list. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, in an interview with Hungarian media, reiterated that Russia is willing to seek peace, but on the following conditions:

  • Ukraine's "demilitarization" and "denazification";
  • Repeal all sanctions against Russia;
  • Return frozen Russian overseas assets;
  • Ukraine abandoning its NATO membership;
  • Recognizing all territories "annexed by Russia", including the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions that are not yet fully controlled.

This demand is almost identical to the list presented by Russian forces when they initially attacked Kyiv and proposed negotiations in Istanbul. Putin's increasingly hardened stance is closely related to the political myth he has built. In the Kremlin's version of history, this is a "life-or-death battle between Russia and the liberal world," a defense of civilization and faith. This logic of war does not allow for short-term truces or tolerate diplomatic compromise. Even symbolic concessions could be seen as a betrayal of Russia's "traditional values."

Patriot Missiles and Drone Attacks: The Cruel Return of Battlefield Reality

The war has not cooled down due to diplomatic undercurrents. Instead, in recent weeks, Russia has launched record-breaking drone attacks, posing a severe challenge to Kyiv's air defense system. Ukraine has reported that over 160,000 Russian soldiers have gathered in the north and east, preparing for a new offensive.

Ukraine urgently needs new weapons and aid. If the U.S. really increases the Patriot system or agrees to transfer long-range missiles, it would greatly change the Russian military strategy. But if aid continues to be delayed due to political calculations, Kyiv may face the risk of collapsing defenses in the coming months.

This situation is also one of the important reasons for Trump's change in attitude. If Ukraine loses, the "Kabul moment" of the 2020s will reappear - the Republicans cannot bear the historical humiliation under the "MAGA" banner.

When Diplomacy Becomes "Performance"

Putin and Trump, two politicians with different styles but essentially skilled in performance, have revealed their true faces in this confrontation.

Trump no longer fantasizes that the script of "reaching an agreement with Putin" can materialize, while Putin no longer wastes time pretending to be sincere about negotiations. He clearly knows that war is the leverage he uses to maintain domestic control and ignite nationalism.

The U.S. side also has to accept this reality: if Russia cannot end the war through diplomacy, the West can only continue to assist Ukraine until Putin's offensive is broken by reality.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524880673362952730/

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