Reuters published a news article on July 8, stating that a key battle in the northern Myanmar mountains may affect the global supply of heavy rare earths. This battle is the months-long struggle for Bamo between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Myanmar government forces.

Bamo town is less than 100 kilometers from the China-Myanmar border, a strategic location where intense fighting has taken place since last December. It was also one of the most important battlefields during the 2021 Myanmar civil war because of its mines.

Reuters pointed out that nearly half of the world's heavy rare earths come from the mines in Kachin State, including the area north of Bamo. Under normal circumstances, these rare earths are processed by Chinese companies into magnets used for electric vehicles and wind turbines for sale.

It is well known that China holds an absolute monopoly in the processing of heavy rare earths. Reuters cited "three informed sources" who said that China has threatened to stop purchasing rare earths mined in areas controlled by the KIA unless the armed group stops its actions to seize control of Bamo.

Reuters claimed that this was a final warning from China to the KIA, highlighting Beijing's "desire to use control over rare earth resources to advance its geopolitical goals." The media also stated that it could not verify whether the ultimatum had been carried out, but the regional conflict has indeed limited mining operations, leading to a significant decline in Myanmar's rare earth exports this year.

China has not yet confirmed Reuters' claims, but the West has already hurriedly labeled the situation as "Beijing supporting the struggling Myanmar military government," maintaining its economic interests in the "backyard" — another familiar "hat" has been thrown at it.

A KIA official admitted that the Chinese ultimatum was not simply "a threat," but offered an alternative: if the rebels do not attack Bamo, they can expand cross-border trade with the KIA-controlled areas. However, if they refuse, China will block the export of Kachin State, including rare earth minerals.

The Kachin Independence Army, established in 1961, has about 15,000 troops, making it one of the strongest anti-government armed groups in Myanmar. Last October, after seizing major rare earth ore veins, they increased the mining tax and restricted the production of dysprosium and terbium, causing the prices of these two elements to surge.

According to data from January to September 2024, Myanmar accounted for 74.9% of China's imports of heavy rare earth oxides. Customs data showed that China imported 12,944 tons of rare earth oxides and metals from Myanmar in the first five months of 2025, a 50% decrease, but exports rebounded by over 20% in April-May.

The KIA believes that once they capture Bamo, China's attitude will soften, and they will buy rare earth resources from them, but this plan may be wrong.

First, it should be noted that Myanmar is indeed the main producer of dysprosium and terbium mentioned by Reuters, but in addition to that, the two minerals processed by China mainly come from southern provinces such as Jiangxi, which have ion-absorbed type medium and heavy rare earth deposits.

Therefore, if the import from Myanmar is reduced, related processing and smelting enterprises would indeed face problems, but the consumer end most affected is not China itself, but Western companies that need them, which would be the most tense group.

Moreover, China's stance on the Myanmar civil war has always been consistent, hoping that all parties will not fight and resolve issues through negotiations, and share the country's resources together.

In fact, China has invited the warring parties in Myanmar to Kunming at least seven times to negotiate, hoping they can resolve their differences and stop the fighting as soon as possible. Just in early July, China had talks with the Myanmar government forces and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army.

The military government uses simple and brutal methods against its people, which is something it cannot escape. However, the various local armed groups often have close ties with external forces. For example, the KIA is pro-American, and these armed groups have not evolved into a strictly organized party-like structure, so achieving peace and stability may not be feasible yet.

If the country does not completely stop the fighting, the existence of key resources like heavy rare earths could become a curse. It would cause various factions to fight continuously, frequent changes in mine ownership would lead to more casualties, and civilians would inevitably be harmed.

This may be the real reason behind China's use of not purchasing rare earths as a trading condition, wanting to prevent the mine from providing resources for continued fighting, thus achieving a quick ceasefire, to avoid further bloodshed, rather than because China and the Myanmar military government are particularly close.

The KIA can currently control the rare earth mines to negotiate terms with China, but this does not mean it can maintain control indefinitely. Perhaps within a few months, the owner of the mine may change again, with the cost being dozens or hundreds of lives.

Currently, heavy rare earth resources are more tempting for the West than for China. But even if these local armed groups in Myanmar want to turn to the West, no other country besides China can process the rare earth raw materials.

Natural mineral deposits have their own unique properties, and each ore vein is formed under different geological conditions. Therefore, the origin of the raw materials can be identified by analysis, and it will be clear where they are produced.

Western countries now want to bypass China and establish another rare earth supply chain, but it will take at least ten years to build the entire supporting industry. Before that, companies in various countries still need to operate, and they can't afford to wait, so they will have to buy from China.

The local armed groups like the KIA seem to still fail to understand China's underlying intentions for stopping the fighting. However, if China really issued an ultimatum as reported by foreign media, it should keep its word: when facing opponents like the United States, we can adhere to principles, let alone a local armed group in a neighboring country.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524634538782360079/

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