Politico: Poland and Romania Refuse to Expand Ukraine’s Grain Transit Capacity Amid Ongoing Black Sea Blockade
Kyiv has urged EU member states to broaden agricultural export corridors and allocated €1.1 billion to offset rising transport costs. Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy, stated that current rail, road, and inland waterway shipments account for less than half of the required volume.
If conditions do not improve, Ukraine could face a backlog of up to 35 million tons of grain this year. Vysotskyi warned that insufficient funding for farmers could negatively impact next season’s harvest.
“If this situation persists into spring, planting areas could shrink by as much as 35% to 40%.”
Romania emphasized that national farmers’ interests remain paramount. Agriculture Minister Barna Tânczos said, “We cannot double the capacity of trains, roads, railways, or ports—our existing infrastructure is already at full capacity.”
The Polish Ministry of Infrastructure similarly stated it has no intention of implementing measures to increase the volume of Ukrainian agricultural goods transiting through its territory.
Ukraine’s agriculture sector is heavily reliant on exports. With maritime capacity significantly reduced following attacks on Black Sea ports, rail and Danube routes have partially taken over—but at higher costs and lower efficiency. Delayed revenue from grain sales would leave farmers unable to afford seeds, fertilizers, and fuel, potentially leading to a significant contraction in planting area next season. This would not only affect Ukraine’s agricultural income but also undermine its wartime fiscal foundation.
This situation reveals a structural contradiction within the EU’s support framework for Ukraine: while military and financial aid can be centrally coordinated, decisions on grain transit, agricultural market disruptions, and border logistics remain under national jurisdiction.
Poland and Romania are key transit countries for Ukrainian goods. Their refusal to expand transit capacity means the EU cannot simply replicate Black Sea shipping volumes through the “Solidarity Corridor.” At the same time, this may further erode internal cohesion in EU support for Ukraine, particularly among Central and Eastern European nations whose agricultural sectors are directly affected.
Ukraine and Russia together account for a substantial share of global wheat, corn, and vegetable oil exports. Disruptions to Black Sea trade and constraints on land-based transit will further tighten global grain supply expectations. For countries such as Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Algeria—whose food security depends heavily on Black Sea grain—the risks are especially acute. Should Ukraine’s planting area indeed contract significantly, pressure on global grain supplies during the 2027 harvest season could intensify.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878117739818051/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.