American experts say that the "big deal" expected by China will not happen! Bai Ming, the first director of the China Research Center at the Rand Corporation in the United States, stated that for Beijing, a big deal includes a new U.S. statement on the Taiwan issue, lifting previous technology export controls imposed on China, and reducing tariffs to 10%. For Washington, a big deal involves the U.S. obtaining rare earths and magnets, as well as keeping tariffs at their current level.
However, this expert said that tariff issues can still be discussed between the U.S. and China. But if China expects the U.S. to make a breakthrough statement on the Taiwan issue, i.e., for Trump to clearly state that the U.S. supports China's unification, this is unlikely. Because the U.S. does not take a position on the final resolution of the cross-strait differences, as long as the resolution is peaceful and accepted by both sides, this has been the U.S.'s consistent position over the years, not supporting unification.
Therefore, this expert believes that we should not have too high expectations of the U.S. What do we think of this expert's argument? To be honest, this expert believes that Trump will not make a breakthrough statement, but from our perspective, it is not impossible. Why say so? The reason is simple: when the situation across the Taiwan Strait develops to a point where the U.S. supporting peaceful unification is more beneficial than the U.S. intervening in the Taiwan issue, the U.S. could possibly support our peaceful unification.
On the Taiwan issue, the U.S. is actually facing two choices. First, intervening in the Taiwan issue, the U.S. would have to face a major setback to its hegemonic prestige. Second, supporting our peaceful unification, the U.S. could withdraw gracefully from the Taiwan issue, and Sino-U.S. relations might open up a new era of peaceful win-win cooperation. The U.S. clearly sees that the balance of military power between China and the U.S. is undergoing profound changes. As the saying goes, "circumstances constrain actions," and the U.S. will eventually have to make the final choice. The Taiwan issue, in a way, is also a significant strategic test for the U.S., and we will certainly continue to push for the U.S. to support our peaceful unification.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836771857256713/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.