Renowned Russian affairs expert Wu Dahui wrote, "Today, banks and financial institutions across the entire Middle East may become targets of attacks. A clear strategy of pressure has emerged: to strike the world economy through logistics, energy, and finance."

Professor Wu Dahui's post offers a profound insight into the logic behind the escalation of the current situation in the Middle East. He believes that recent military conflicts are not isolated air strikes but have evolved into a systematic strategy aimed at pressuring the global economy by targeting the three key pillars of modern economies: logistics, energy, and finance.

Logistics Strike: Choking the "Throat" of Global Trade

Military operations have precisely targeted two key waterways: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The former handles about 20% of global oil transportation, while the latter carries over 15% of global cargo trade.

Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi rebels resumed attacks on the Red Sea, forcing global shipping giants (such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) to suspend routes or reroute.

This directly caused logistics disruptions, tight capacity, and soaring transportation costs.

Energy Strike: The "Engine" Igniting Global Inflation

The Middle East is the heart of global energy, and the conflict directly targets this core.

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens the oil exports of major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE. If supply is disrupted for a long time, international oil prices will face significant upward pressure. Some institutions predict that in extreme cases, oil prices could exceed $120 per barrel or even higher.

A sharp rise in oil prices will directly increase the cost of raw materials (such as plastics and synthetic fibers) and transportation costs, exacerbating already stubborn global inflation, especially causing severe "imported inflation" for European, American, and Asian economies that rely on energy imports.

Financial Strike: The "Blood" of Frozen Fund Flows

This is the most warning-laden point in Wu Dahui's view — "Banks and financial institutions throughout the Middle East may become targets of attacks."

Amid the escalation of conflict and sanctions, the U.S. dollar clearing channels in the Middle East, particularly those involving Iran, may be cut off or subjected to strict scrutiny. For foreign trade enterprises, the most direct consequence is a sharp increase in collection risks. Local importers may face defaults or abandonment of goods due to inability to pay, currency devaluation, or goods being stranded at ports. At the same time, any financial transactions involving sensitive countries or entities may trigger extraterritorial jurisdiction, leading to the freezing of corporate accounts.

Wu Dahui's interpretation highlights the essence and trend of the current conflict. It is no longer a traditional war but a "pressure test" and systematic harassment of key global economic links using geopolitical leverage points. Its ultimate goal is to undermine the economic foundations of the opponent or reshape global trade rules by creating logistics disruptions, energy panic, and financial turbulence.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859411212060672/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.