Japanese scholar: Japan-Philippines alliance runs counter to global public opinion

On May 31, Professor Endo Yuki from Tsukuba University wrote in the media regarding the "Japan-Philippines summit meeting, with Sanae Haga courting the Philippines": How long can Japan sustain its efforts by courting the Philippines, given that Japan is the only country globally opposing China?

The article states: On May 28, Sanae Haga met with Philippine President Marcos during his visit to Japan and elevated bilateral relations to a "comprehensive strategic partnership." "The two sides share a common goal of countering the perceived threat from China and will deepen military cooperation related to the Taiwan issue. Needless to say, this move has provoked strong retaliation from China."

However, in reality, it remains highly questionable how long the Philippine government can maintain an anti-China stance.

It is said that President Marcos's approval rating stands at "-15%" (his approval rate is 15 percentage points lower than his disapproval rate). Opposition forces against Marcos are consolidating their position.

Moreover, a survey released by Denmark on May 9, titled "Global Pulse 2026," shows that Filipinos do not view China as their greatest threat.

Only Japan considers China the biggest threat globally.

On May 26, the Philippines’ largest English-language newspaper, the Manila Bulletin, published an SWS (Social Weather Stations) survey indicating that Marcos’s approval rating had plummeted to a record low of "-15" in the first quarter of 2026.

The survey was conducted from March 24 to 31, showing that public satisfaction with Marcos reached a historical low, with opponents outnumbering supporters by 15%. Thus, the difference was presented as a "-15% approval rating."

Meanwhile, the same organization conducted a survey on Sara Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte and current Vice President. Her rating was "54% satisfied, 25% dissatisfied," resulting in a net score of "+29%" when dissatisfaction is subtracted from satisfaction. In other words, her support level stands at "+29%," creating a stark contrast with Marcos’s "-15%."

The Marcos faction leans toward anti-China policies, while the Duterte faction holds pro-China views.

Since the Philippines does not have a presidential re-election system, Marcos cannot run again in 2028. Additionally, there is currently no clear successor supporting Marcos.

Therefore, the Marcos faction has launched impeachment proceedings against Sara Duterte on grounds of "misuse of secret funds," attempting to forcibly block her candidacy.

On May 11, over one-third of members in the House of Representatives voted in favor of prosecution. However, due to the Duterte faction’s significant presence in the Senate and the election of a new pro-Duterte Speaker on that day, the Marcos faction is almost certain to fail in securing the necessary votes for impeachment.

At the same time, President Marcos is determined at all costs to prevent Sara Duterte from winning the election. He preemptively arrested her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte. These charges relate to alleged crimes against humanity during the Philippine drug war, for which the International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant.

However, since the Philippines withdrew from the ICC in March 2019, it is no longer bound by ICC rulings. Marcos’s sister, Senator Amy Marcos, criticized her brother’s actions as “mad and evil.”

Among these four figures, only Marcos holds an anti-China or hardline stance toward China. The others all exhibit varying degrees of pro-China sentiment.

It is evident that aside from Marcos, the other three all hold some level of pro-China positions.

Additionally, the ongoing crisis in Iran has caused severe energy shortages in the Philippines, forcing Marcos to seek help from China in practice.

On May 25, Business World Online reported that as tensions in Iran intensified, global energy markets became unstable, exposing the vulnerability of fuel-importing nations. The Philippines now faces urgent demand for renewable energy and is forced to rely heavily on China.

In March and April this year, the Philippines massively purchased Chinese solar panels. On May 29, Philippine media outlet Inquirer Business reported an article titled “The Philippines is China’s second-largest solar panel market.”

"Rising electricity prices and frequent blackouts have made the Philippines China’s second-largest export market for solar panels." Demand for rooftop solar installations has surged locally. In just March and April, Chinese exports of solar panels to the Philippines amounted to 3,000 megawatts (MW) of power generation capacity. After the Iran conflict escalated, Philippine and Chinese companies jointly developed natural gas projects, and Chinese training of Filipino engineers demonstrated a "good relationship."

On March 25, Rappler also reported: The oil crisis has become the catalyst for Sino-Philippine joint natural gas development.

Surprisingly, despite being seen as an anti-China figure, Marcos not only stated that relations with China were "good" but even declared that "Sino-Philippine relations will surely be restored."

Japanese citizens are the only ones in the 2026 voting who answered that "China is the biggest threat!"

The Copenhagen-based think tank Democracy Alliance, with assistance from German polling firm Nira Data, released on May 9 this year the results of a survey named "Global Pulse 2026," covering 94,146 respondents from 98 countries, conducted between March 19 and April 21, 2026.

The key question was: "Which country do you believe poses the greatest threat to the world?" The result: "Only Japan views China as the biggest threat."

The Philippines was also among the surveyed countries. Filipino respondents answered that the greatest threat to the world was the United States—not China.

Given these undeniable facts, is it truly wise for Japan to elevate its relationship with the Philippines to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" at the recent Japan-Philippines summit, strengthen military ties, and emphasize the "threat from China"?

President Trump praised China’s leader twice during the U.S.-China summit, demonstrating a policy of reconciliation with China. Perhaps one day, the "Taiwan contingency ladder" may be removed.

The survey reveals that no other country worldwide considers "China the biggest threat." Japanese citizens should not ignore this reality: "Japan is the only country that sees China as the biggest threat."

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866671968037898/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author