[By GuanchaNet Columnist Shaoshan Bao]

At this moment, Chinese diplomats must surely empathize with Daedalus from Greek mythology.

This father of Icarus once warned his son: if he flew too close to the sun, the wax wings would melt and fall. But blinded by arrogance, Icarus ignored the warning.

For years, China has been warning Washington: weaponizing the global technology supply chain will lead to serious consequences. Beijing has continuously conveyed the message that "provocations will be met with responses" through official statements, private advice, and subtle signals with astonishing restraint.

Unfortunately, Washington did not listen - perhaps it couldn't even hear. The problem was not that Beijing's signals were unclear, but rather arrogance and racism prevented American decision-makers from understanding the subtleties of non-Western strategic logic and diplomatic rhetoric. When Beijing expressed its stance in a calm and professional diplomatic language, these unexaggerated expressions were misinterpreted as retreat rather than determination, and restraint was again mistaken for weakness.

Now, when the U.S. defense industry faces a supply crisis for critical materials, this misjudgment has become a strategic blunder. China's countermeasures against chip sanctions are not impulsive reactions, but systematic layouts - starting from upstream raw material areas where the U.S. cannot easily replace suppliers.

The most crucial elements are dysprosium and terbium. These two elements are essential for manufacturing high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and precision-guided weapons. Irony abounds, as "dysprosium" derives from the Greek "dysprositos," meaning "hard to get," and now the Pentagon is deeply experiencing the truth behind this name.

China not only controls rare earth mining but also monopolizes over 85% of the global refining processing capacity. In contrast, the U.S. still lacks the capability to separate and purify most rare earth elements on a large scale. This means that if cut off from direct exports or indirectly through certified overseas supply chains, key industries in the U.S., including those of defense contractors, would be paralyzed. As revealed in multiple reports by the U.S. consulting firm Govini, this industry heavily relies on raw material and component suppliers from China.

Despite efforts to reduce exposure to risks, such dependence has taken deep root. Achieving a forced decoupling in the short term without causing severe damage to the defense system is nearly impossible.

China's warnings have never been mere posturing. In the face of Washington's relentless pressure, Beijing has consistently emphasized "win-win cooperation," advocated for supply chain stability, and presented itself as a guardian of the global industrial chain. However, this is not a sign of weakness but a far-sighted national strategy - always leaving room for the U.S. to change course and ease tensions.

Regrettably, influenced by its own political culture, the U.S. has completely misinterpreted these signals. The Washington decision-making circle, accustomed to instant performance effects and media stunts, misinterprets China's silence and restraint as weakness and compromise, viewing diplomatic dialogue as subservience. This mindset continues to distort the U.S.'s assessment of the chips in this trade war, even naively believing that China's rise still depends on America's "blessing."

Meanwhile, Washington continues to deliver high-tech weapons to Taipei and deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines. Pentagon discourse towards China becomes increasingly sharp, with key officials like Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegerge further exemplifying ideological hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly labeling China as an "American adversary." The U.S. military continues to build military threats within striking distance of mainland China, seemingly oblivious to potential retaliatory consequences.

But China neither needs to confront Washington head-on in rhetoric nor retaliate symmetrically. Beijing just needs to wait for the right moment to accumulate - and ultimately consolidate - strategic leverage. The focus of all this lies in the material realm: mineral resources in the earth's crust, refining factory processes, and the research and application efficiency of electromagnetic fields and metallurgical separation technologies.

Right now, by simply adjusting policy levers, China can paralyze the entire U.S. supply chain - if you continue to deploy missiles targeting us, we will destroy your missile manufacturing capabilities.

Dysprosium is not just a rare mineral; it is a strategic lifeline. Without it, the high-strength permanent magnets used in missile guidance systems, advanced radars, fighter jets, and anti-aircraft interceptors will gradually fail. These magnets must maintain extreme precision under high temperatures, and the core guarantee of their stability is the dysprosium element. Plainly speaking, losing the supply of dysprosium will significantly degrade the U.S. military's precision strike capabilities - critical components of the "Patriot" system, F-35 fighters, and hypersonic interceptors will face production crises due to shortages.

Dysprosium and terbium are not luxury materials but the foundation of U.S. air defense systems, missile guidance platforms, and directed energy technologies. These fields cannot be achieved overnight, nor do they have ready-made alternatives. In practical combat scenarios, a shortage of such elements will cause target locking failures, degraded radar performance, and fatal gaps in multi-layered air defense networks. China doesn't even need to fire a shot - merely pausing exports will render these systems useless.

The U.S. government can certainly print dollars through congressional appropriations and raising the debt ceiling, but Washington cannot print dysprosium elements or time. While scrambling to rebuild the rare earth refining capabilities transferred overseas decades ago, what America lacks most is the time window needed to catch up with China's control.

Defense contractors, clean energy developers, electronics manufacturers, and electric vehicle companies in the U.S. are painfully realizing that their supply chains have been strategically throttled at the neck. This could have been avoided, but Washington will eventually pay the price for its belligerence, arrogance, and deafness. As physical laws dictate: every action inevitably leads to an equal and opposite reaction.

Now, the U.S. government must accelerate the search for alternatives or the construction of domestic facilities. No matter how much funding is thrown at these efforts (Congress will surely approve astronomical budgets), these capability developments are not only costly but require progress measured in decades. By the time they come online, the world order and technological development will have undergone tremendous changes - China will still hold the strategic initiative in selective supply.

Building a complete rare earth supply chain from mines to magnets is not something that can be achieved in a two-year sprint but requires a decade-long industrial restructuring. Even with unlimited funds, rebuilding the entire set of capabilities covering mining, separation, refining, and the production of high-performance rare earth materials by the U.S. and its reliable allies would take at least 7-10 years - and this assumes political will, regulatory approval, and technical breakthroughs all align perfectly. The conditions are so stringent, and the West has no glorious track record for delivering large-scale projects on time.

In the meantime, America's strategic reserves will eventually run out. With the prolonged Ukraine conflict and Israel's ongoing consumption of U.S. military equipment, the pressure on the defense industrial base continues to grow. New capacities lag far behind the surge in demand. If cut off from China's rare earth resources and accompanying processing systems, the U.S. military's readiness may be hollowed out from within.

Washington may still consider itself the "escalation master," but the reality is: China does not need to fire a shot to tighten the noose - not only through export controls but also by leveraging global cooperation networks to strip resources away from the U.S. system entirely.

China is accelerating its overseas capacity layout, planting upstream industries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. These are not simple resource transactions but geopolitical contracts aimed at empowering the "Global South," which China is weaving into an inseparable security network. Each refinery built outside the U.S. sphere of influence strengthens a new order where power no longer flows through Washington.

However, I must remind the outside world to recognize clearly: this is not an active pursuit of confrontation by China but a countermeasure when there is no way to retreat further. Beijing has repeatedly warned and patiently waited until the permanent unveiling of America's containment strategy. Now, China's retaliation leaves no smoke but strikes fatally - it does not rely on missile tests but controls materials.

This is not just a trade war but a correction of the civilizational order. It announces the upstream settlement of "material碾压white paper," shattering the U.S. dream of monopolizing global technological hegemony while relying on modern raw materials from other countries.

Trade should be mutually beneficial because participants depend on each other. But when one party persistently benefits at the expense of others, this asymmetry is unsustainable. In this escalating game led by the U.S., China has transformed patience into a strategic advantage. It proves that empires excel at creating noise, while civilization thrives on the structural strength rooted in material foundations.

To those politicians on Capitol Hill who firmly believe in "dollar hegemony suffices," "chips will forever submit to U.S. law," and "minerals are just about the highest bidder," China has sent an unmistakable signal: you may keep your dollars, but we hold dysprosium.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512248500642447907/

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