[By Guancha Net columnist Andrei Kortunov, translated by Ma Li]
On April 23 local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the new round of talks between Russia and the United States would be held soon. It was also reported earlier that US Special Envoy Witkowski would visit Russia this week.
If there are no unexpected developments, the "thaw" in Russian-American relations will further advance.
On April 22 local time, renowned Russian artist Nikas Savranov showed CNN a portrait painting of Trump he had created. This painting was gifted to Trump by Putin in March this year but was not publicly disclosed at the time. CNN
At present, the main driving force for pushing Russian-American dialogue towards a positive direction comes from Donald Trump himself. He personally hopes to play a major mediating role between Moscow and Kyiv. Other matters, including the normalization process of Russian-American bilateral relations, the two countries' surprisingly casting votes in favor at the United Nations General Assembly, Washington signaling possible relaxation of sanctions on Russia, etc., all serve a common purpose - that is, Trump urgently wants a ceasefire on the ground between Ukraine and Russia. This way, the Republican administration can declare itself a political victory and prove its ability to handle issues better than the Democratic government.
In recent phone conversations between the presidents of Russia and the United States and in the bilateral consultations initiated in Saudi Arabia, this intention of the United States has become very clear. Now, let us temporarily assume that this serious crisis in Europe has passed. How much do Russia and the United States overlap in strategic interests? What is the potential for their long-term cooperation?
On February 18 local time, the Russian delegation and the American delegation held talks in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia.
Military Control Issues
Traditionally speaking, Moscow and Washington should not be eager to engage in an uncontrolled arms race. Regardless of how the hawks in both capitals express themselves, such a competition is costly and dangerous for both sides. Donald Trump's proposal to cut military spending by half for the United States, Russia, and China, and Vladimir Putin's readiness to support this idea, is not entirely coincidental.
For Trump, wasting large amounts of money on military equipment that is essentially useless is a waste of American tax dollars. Russia and the United States should jointly work to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Both Moscow and Washington should remain vigilant about the threats posed by future developments in military technology, including the militarization of outer space and cyberspace, the use of artificial intelligence for military purposes, the deployment of various autonomous lethal systems, and other potentially harmful military technologies whose outcomes cannot yet be fully predicted but are clearly detrimental to both parties.
However, traditional forms of military control agreements are unlikely to once again become the core content of bilateral relations, and this has been the case since the early 1970s. Donald Trump has never been a supporter of any form of military control, as evidenced by his performance during his first term when the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and effectively refused to negotiate the extension of the New START treaty.
Clearly, Trump believes that the United States has the ability to surpass any rival, including Russia, in terms of defense spending and military capabilities. Moreover, any new comprehensive strategic arms control will no longer be bilateral; it must be multilateral, meaning that the nuclear arsenals of other countries must also be taken into account. It is obvious that Trump is more concerned about China's rapidly growing military strength than Russia.
Regional Issues
Theoretically, Moscow and Washington could cooperate productively on many regional issues, including the Middle East, Northeast Asia, Afghanistan, Africa, and even Latin America. There is reason to believe that the Trump administration might cooperate with Russia on these issues because further exacerbation of regional crises would require Washington to make significant security investments in many unstable regions, including showing military presence, and might even lead to direct U.S. intervention in local conflicts. The Trump administration hopes to avoid such situations as much as possible. If Moscow could help Washington tame Iran, North Korea, or even Venezuela, the White House would certainly be very grateful.
However, the actual opportunities for Moscow and Washington to cooperate on most major regional issues seem extremely limited. In the Middle East, particularly after the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the United States clearly intends to have Russia accept the fait accompli (the same was true of the recent U.S. strike on Houthi rebels in Yemen). Trump's unconditional support for Israel makes it difficult for Russia to assist the U.S. on any issue involving peace between Palestine and Israel. Africa is obviously not a strategic priority for the Trump administration, and the new U.S. administration has essentially outsourced African security issues to U.S. European allies.
As for the Korean Peninsula, Moscow and Washington have taken completely different positions, and Russia is also constrained by the obligations arising from the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed with North Korea last June. The situation with Iran is similar; Russia signed a similar agreement with Iran in January this year. We have no reason to believe that Moscow would sacrifice its long-term relations with Pyongyang or Tehran to please Washington.
Welcome ceremony for Russian President Putin held by North Korea in June 2024. Source: TASS
Economic Relations
If the Trump administration could at least partially lift or relax numerous sanctions against Russia, this policy shift could indeed open new opportunities for more economic cooperation between the two countries. The United States needs titanium from Russia to manufacture Boeing aircraft, uranium from Russia to fuel its nuclear power plants, and even heavy oil to be processed in American refineries.
In addition, the American manufacturing sector would not refuse rare earth minerals and other mineral resources from Russia. Conversely, Russia could attempt to attract substantial direct investment or portfolio investment from the United States and increase imports of a wide range of American goods, from civilian aircraft to consumer products.
However, one should not overestimate the significance of these economic opportunities between Russia and the United States. Historically, Moscow and Washington have never been each other's primary trading or investment partners. Even at the peak of the relationship in the first two decades of this century, bilateral trade volume never exceeded $45 billion, with U.S. exports to Russia amounting to only $10 billion, which is an entire order of magnitude lower than China's exports to Russia.
Therefore, we have no reason to believe that the United States will soon seize a significant share of the Russian consumer market in areas such as automobiles, machinery, or consumer electronics from China. Even in terms of foreign direct investment, the situation is not much better—just before Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, the accumulated U.S. foreign direct investment in Russia amounted to only $9.2 billion. This figure is not only lower than offshore jurisdictions such as Cyprus, Bermuda, or the Bahamas but also lower than several European countries like the UK, Netherlands, France, and Germany. Even if some of America’s investments flow indirectly into Russia through these offshore jurisdictions or via European partners, the overall investment scale is not particularly impressive.
Meanwhile, we can easily predict that in many key global markets, including arms, oil and gas, food, etc., Washington and Moscow will continue to have trade competition in the future.
Scientific Research Cooperation
Russia’s research and development capabilities in certain fields are undoubtedly of interest to the United States. On the other hand, Moscow may also seek to expand its international research cooperation network to maintain "technological sovereignty." Experiences from the 1990s and early 2000s show that Russia and the United States have successfully collaborated in various types of bilateral and multilateral joint research projects. If they could collaborate in the past, why not in the future? For example, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, has proposed sending a joint exploration team to Mars by Russia and the United States in 2029.
Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and Russian negotiator. Reuters
However, if the two countries remain mainly competitive rather than cooperative in other areas, this overall state will inevitably severely limit the depth and breadth of their scientific research cooperation. We can quite confidently predict that the United States will treat Russia in a manner similar to how it treats China today—implementing a "small yard high fence" policy. Unfortunately, as current experiences in Sino-American relations indicate, Americans are not good at building "high walls" while simultaneously shrinking "yards."
Cultural Sphere
In recent years, although the image of "America as a shining city on a hill" has dimmed somewhat in the minds of Russian people, the overall appeal of the United States has not completely disappeared, especially given the current negative changes in attitudes toward Europe among the Russian public. Many experts believe that anti-American sentiment in contemporary Russian society is not deeply entrenched.
Perhaps we can see gradual recovery in educational and cultural exchanges between Russia and the United States, with increasing second-track exchanges at expert levels and within civil society groups, much like what we witnessed 20 years ago. One point we should not overlook is that the largest Russian (or former Soviet) diaspora lives in the United States, with a total number exceeding three million. This diaspora can promote closer social interactions between the two countries, playing a natural bridge role.
However, there should be no expectation of miracles occurring in the cultural sphere either. In the United States, the anti-Russian consensus remains strong and deeply rooted, and is unlikely to change in the short term. This anti-Russian consensus is likely to persist even after the Trump administration leaves office and will be further consolidated under the leadership of a new White House administration.
Meanwhile, Russia's admiration for the United States should not be exaggerated. In 2019 (the year before the pandemic), approximately 57,000 Russians entered foreign universities for study, with the U.S. accounting for slightly more than 10% of this number, far below Germany, Italy, and even South Korea. The same situation applies to cultural exchanges between Russia and Western countries. As for the large former Soviet diaspora living in the U.S., their political views are divided, and it remains unclear whether they will become a booster for Russo-American relations or a hindrance.
President Trump signing an executive order in the Oval Office (left), photo of Russian President Putin provided by Russian state media in February (right). Source: The New York Times
New World Order
Today, Moscow and Washington share numerous tactical interests. Both are fighting against what they consider the existing globalist international order, opposing the dominance of the political and economic elite, striving to restore traditional national sovereignty, and returning to conservative values. The leaders of both countries—Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump—know each other well. Although they have different views on what is happening in the world, their relationship seems close. At the same time, their viewpoints and values differ greatly from those of most European leaders or many senior EU officials.
Although the two countries share many common views, there are still obvious differences in long-term interests, aspirations, and goals. For example, for Moscow's policymakers, strengthening the BRICS countries or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is one of their core diplomatic policy priorities; for Washington's policymakers, these two organizations are severe diplomatic policy challenges.
For the Kremlin, the decline of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency is a natural and welcome process; however, for the White House, the decline of the dollar directly threatens America's fundamental financial and even national security interests. For Russia, China will continue to be its most important strategic partner now and in the future; for the United States, China will continue to be its main strategic competitor now and in the future. In Moscow, policymakers are envisioning a completely new model of global governance; in Washington, they prefer seeking "deals" that bring concrete political and economic benefits to the United States at present.
Conclusion
The content involved in this article does not mean that Moscow and Washington are destined to always oppose each other forever, nor does it mean that after a "thaw" in relations, the two countries will necessarily face another Cold War winter. Both sides should take advantage of any opportunity, even the most limited ones, to engage in dialogue. Although it may not be the only influencing factor, constructive bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington are essential for stabilizing the world situation.
However, people should not harbor illusions about Russo-American bilateral relations: the astonishing transformation currently taking place in their relationship is possible only due to the personal stance of the 47th president of the United States. This change remains fragile and reversible. Both sides should focus on establishing a new, more stable, and reliable foundation for their future bilateral relations.
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