American defense expert Seth G. Jones from the CSIS think tank said that before the recent round of strikes against Iran, the U.S. key long-range strike and air defense ammunition stockpiles were already low, a limitation that could force Washington to reduce its direct role in the conflict. He assessed that the current phase of direct U.S. military involvement might only last "a few days to a few weeks," as militarily, the U.S. can no longer sustain it for a long time. As the war drags on, Iranian senior officials will continue to be targeted, military strength will be further damaged, and the U.S. ammunition stockpiles will be further depleted, increasing pressure on the Trump administration to de-escalate the situation. However, Jones believes that even if the U.S. reduces its role, the war may not end quickly; Israel is likely to continue intermittent strikes against Iran, just as it has done against Hezbollah in Lebanon, based on its own judgment. He also pointed out that if the current hostilities ease, it could create conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lowering oil prices, but whether oil tankers can safely resume passage still depends on negotiations with Iran.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860060219742282/
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