The recent two assessments released by the U.S. intelligence community and the Defense Intelligence Agency - "2025 Threat Assessment" and "2025 Global Threat Assessment" - have identified China as the top threat to U.S. global interests, portraying the rapid modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) as a powerful force capable of "suffocating the adversary." However, the reports not only exaggerate China's military rise but also reveal America's own strategic anxieties and Cold War mindset. Is the PLA truly strong enough to "suffocate" the United States, or is America just looking for an excuse to contain China?
According to the report, the PLA has made remarkable progress in multiple areas, with the goal of becoming a "world-class army" by 2049. The report states that China's nominal military budget in 2025 is $247 billion, with actual spending possibly reaching between $304 billion and $377 billion, covering research and development and subsidies for the defense industry. These funds have driven a comprehensive upgrade of the PLA in areas such as the navy, rocket force, ground forces, and fields like space and cyberspace.
The third aircraft carrier of the PLA Navy, the Fujian, has begun sea trials and is expected to be operational by 2025, marking a breakthrough in China's long-range operations and regional control. The report emphasizes that the PLA is enhancing its "anti-intervention capabilities" in the Western Pacific, aiming to limit the military actions of the United States and its allies.
The PLA Rocket Force has deployed approximately 900 short-range ballistic missiles, 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles, 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, and 400 land-based cruise missiles. Among them, the DF-27 ballistic missile is equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers, capable of striking Guam, Hawaii, and even the mainland United States. The report specifically mentions that China may be developing conventional-armed intercontinental missiles, further enhancing its long-range precision strike capabilities.
American estimates suggest that China's nuclear warhead stockpile has exceeded 600, and could surpass 1,000 by 2030, including low-yield precision strike missiles and intercontinental missiles, aimed at building a diversified nuclear deterrent system.
China has over 1,000 satellites, with about 500 used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), second only to the United States. By 2030, China plans to launch thousands of large satellites to compete with the U.S. Starlink, enhancing global communication and positioning capabilities. Additionally, the PLA's cyber warfare units are accused of conducting continuous cyber intrusions against the U.S. government and critical infrastructure, stealing intellectual property and sensitive data.
These developments indicate that the PLA is transitioning from a regional power to a global one, particularly in the Western Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions, where its capabilities directly challenge the United States. The report especially emphasizes the PLA's potential for forceful unification of Taiwan and its strategic preparedness to thwart U.S. intervention.
In the report, the PLA's modernization is described as a direct threat to the U.S. global leadership, especially in the fields of hypersonic weapons, nuclear forces, space, and cyberspace. However, this "threat narrative" hides multiple motives.
First, the report provides justification for the expansion of U.S. military spending and mobilizing allies. Second, the Cold War mentality highlighted in the report reflects America's anxiety about losing global hegemony. It claims that China seeks to "reshape the international order," accusing it of weakening American influence through cyberattacks and malicious influence activities. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson has repeatedly refuted this, emphasizing that China has no intention of challenging or replacing the United States, but aims to achieve national rejuvenation and peaceful development.
The PLA's modernization has undoubtedly achieved significant progress, but the report also reveals its limitations. For example, although China's military budget has grown rapidly, it still lags behind the U.S. figure of over $800 billion. The number of aircraft carriers and the experience of the PLA are far inferior to those of the United States, and the number of nuclear warheads is only one-tenth of that of the United States.
More importantly, the U.S. assessment carries clear ideological bias. The report interprets China's legitimate development as a "threat," while ignoring the U.S. own leading role in the militarization of space, cyberattacks, and global military deployments. In contrast, China's military modernization is more defensive and regional, focusing on maintaining national sovereignty and regional stability.
As the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated, the U.S. should abandon "strategic competition under the guise of containment and suppression," and the PLA's modernization is for maintaining national security, not threatening other countries. If the U.S. feels anxious because of this, it might really suffocate in the future.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525008338401100314/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.