[By Gu Qingyang]

Since April 2nd, the Trump administration's trade offensive has frequently changed strategies and negotiation chips, rapidly focusing the scope of the trade conflict from a global level to China.

Trump stated that no country should retaliate against global reciprocal tariffs; otherwise, they will face even harsher punishment. This strategy may be effective for some countries, but he underestimated China—a well-prepared and patient opponent.

On April 10th, Trump and his cabinet held a meeting at the White House.

In response to Trump's tariff pressure, China did not seek short-term compromise or negotiation but adopted a more long-term and systematic approach. Over the past eight years, China has been one of the earliest and most persistent target countries of Trump's tariff policies, and it has accumulated valuable experience in combating trade wars.

More importantly, during these eight years of resisting sanctions, China significantly enhanced its economic strength, technological capabilities, and global influence. Therefore, in this tariff war, China's strategy is not limited to controlling short-term economic losses but aims to lay the foundation for its long-term international competitiveness.

China swiftly retaliated against Trump's government's tariff policy and its "transactional" policies based on non-established rules, clearly stating its position. When the Trump administration imposed punitive tariffs, China did not back down but adopted reciprocal countermeasures, demonstrating the principled nature of China's strategy. There is no doubt that this infuriated Trump, leading him to shift the focus of tariff pressure to China.

Shift in Focus

When the U.S. increased the punitive tariffs on Chinese goods from 104% to 145%, the U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on 75 economies. The intent behind this shift may include the following points:

Firstly, high tariffs have severely impacted the U.S. stock market and economy, forcing the Trump administration to make certain concessions to alleviate domestic economic pressure.

The global financial market has suffered significant impacts after the tariff war, with U.S. stocks being particularly affected.

Secondly, the U.S. attempted to prevent China from forming a united front with other countries affected by reciprocal tariffs, aiming to disrupt potential alliances between China and the EU, Japan, South Korea, etc., to avoid the U.S. becoming isolated. The U.S. prefers to adopt a divide-and-conquer strategy, conducting bilateral negotiations with various countries individually to gain an advantage in negotiations. Therefore, the U.S. is determined to prevent the emergence of anti-American strategic alliances.

Thirdly, the U.S. shifted its strategic focus to China, viewing it as the greatest strategic balancing force. By concentrating pressure on China, the U.S. hopes to force China to yield and thereby warn other countries not to imitate China's resistance to U.S. pressure.

Will Trump's administration's extreme tariff measures reaching up to 145% lead to an uncontrolled escalation of the trade war into a comprehensive Sino-U.S. trade war, causing serious deterioration in bilateral relations and triggering deep decoupling of the two major economies? Will the competition and conflicts between the two countries continue to intensify?

These pressing questions have sparked widespread global attention, exacerbating market panic and causing severe fluctuations in global markets. Many national leaders have publicly expressed their concerns, worried that these unstable policies might seriously damage the global economy.

Message to the World from China

In response to America's continuous escalation of tariff policies, China also began taking corresponding countermeasures, such as reducing the number of Hollywood film imports.

However, the Sino-U.S. trade war will not spiral out of control, mainly because China's countermeasures are not just targeting short-term tariffs or punishments but have long-term strategic significance. China uses this opportunity to showcase its commitment to international relationship principles and rules to the international community, thereby enhancing its global image, winning broader international support, strengthening soft power, and securing greater space for future development and global recognition of its values.

This strategy also reflects China's more effective way of responding to American pressure. If China continues to yield, it will face continuous suppression from the U.S., which will keep finding reasons to contain China's development. By emphasizing its principles and bottom lines, China aims to make the U.S. realize this and dispel any future ideas of continuously pressuring China, thus earning a more stable long-term development environment for China.

The core of China's strategy is to occupy the moral high ground. By maintaining international rules and order, China highlights the stark contrast between itself and the Trump administration's actions of undermining the global system. America's initiation of the global tariff war has severely disrupted the international order, damaging America's own moral authority.

But this is a rare opportunity for China, where the current trade war allows it to establish an image as a responsible major power and guardian of international rules. Therefore, while the U.S. faces a trade deficit, it is also losing global trust.

For China, this is a rare opportunity to establish an image as a responsible major power and demonstrate its role as a defender of international norms. In contrast, the U.S. faces not only a trade deficit but also a rising trust deficit globally.

Return to the Negotiating Table

America's tariff war undoubtedly adds pressure to China's economy, which is already facing multiple challenges. Therefore, China is likely to continue adopting a restrained and passive stance rather than actively escalating the trade war. Its reciprocal countermeasures are largely defensive, aiming to minimize losses. The goal is not to escalate conflicts but to rally international consensus, unite more countries against American unilateralism, and form a tide of opposition to American bullying behavior worldwide.

China is striving to shape itself as an image of international balance and maintenance of the global trading system. It is worth noting that besides implementing counter-tariffs, China also released a government white paper proposing a new vision of building a "community of shared destiny" with neighboring countries, emphasizing its international responsibilities and constructive global roles.

As long as China can effectively respond to America and establish a positive image in the international community, its strategic goals will have been achieved. China's ultimate goal remains to bring the U.S. back to the negotiating table. After all, the U.S. remains the strongest country in the world, and China's domestic economy also faces many challenges and issues. China needs more time to consolidate its strength and is not eager to break the current stalemate or bear the risk of a full-scale breakdown in relations with the U.S.

Since many of Trump's administration's destructive policies encounter resistance both domestically and internationally, their policies are unlikely to endure in the long term. For this reason, even if the future trajectory of U.S. development remains unclear and unlikely to return to the past, Trump's administration's policies will inevitably return to a rational path in the end. Therefore, China chooses strategic patience and calmly responds to changes in the situation, believing that time will prove everything.

Long-Term Impact

China's core national interests extend far beyond international trade to achieving national modernization and unity. Therefore, when facing the U.S., China will continue to maintain a "fighting without breaking" state. As long as China successfully establishes a new image as a maintainer of the multilateral trading system, it can secure sufficient space for future development and play a leading role in the emerging global order, while the relative role of the U.S. will decline.

On the other hand, the extreme tariff war initiated by the U.S. is increasingly difficult to sustain due to its negative impact on its own economy. Meanwhile, China has made long-term preparations and still holds strategic countermeasures, such as measures targeting U.S. service exports.

Los Angeles port terminal transportation.

Therefore, the U.S. will not seek a complete decoupling from China, as China has become too powerful to ignore today. The U.S. also faces internal limitations and fears widespread condemnation on the international stage, losing moral authority.

Moreover, the U.S. government must consider the potential backlash of imposing excessive pressure on China, which could trigger strong nationalist sentiment domestically, fostering stronger unity within China. This scenario would be detrimental to the U.S. in the long run. Ultimately, considering the current balance of comprehensive strength between China and the U.S., neither side is willing to bear the risk of unilateral escalation of conflicts.

In the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war, the stance of third-party players (such as the EU) is crucial. Both sides are actively seeking external support, making their strategies more cautious and restrained.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498179645129425462/

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