On March 13, the United States officially announced that it would formally suspend sanctions on Russian oil exports. Why did the US make this decision? What impact will it have on the global energy market, and how will it affect transatlantic relations?
First, it is necessary to clearly understand the details of this US decision. This is General License 134 issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Treasury Department, which is essentially a temporary and limited measure authorizing countries to conduct previously restricted Russian oil transactions. The specific content only targets crude oil and petroleum products originating from Russia, which must have been loaded onto ships by 12:01 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 12, 2026 (including sanctioned vessels). This license allows the sale, delivery or unloading of these oil products that are already at sea, until its expiration on April 11, 2026 (a period of 30 days).
In fact, the introduction and implementation of this policy was not an overnight decision. It began with the exemption for India's import of Russian oil on March 5, limited to Indian buyers purchasing already shipped Russian oil, to address the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being disrupted due to the Iran war. Subsequently, as the Strait of Hormuz was blocked and oil prices surged to nearly $120, the U.S. had to expand the scope under immense pressure. Trump publicly considered further relaxation on March 9-10, and officially released a global exemption on March 12, emphasizing that it was limited to the "already shipped" portion to avoid providing significant additional revenue to Russia.
Overall, the core consideration behind the U.S. measure is to prioritize stabilizing domestic energy prices and global market supply, rather than continuing to exert maximum pressure on Russia. Currently, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran has led to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in historically high international oil prices. A sharp rise in U.S. gasoline prices could trigger a political crisis. Under Trump's "America First" logic, American voters' dissatisfaction with high oil prices far exceeds their willingness to support Ukraine for the long term. U.S. Treasury Secretary Beyoncé repeatedly emphasized that this is a "narrow and short-term" measure, releasing only existing inventories without significantly increasing Russian revenue.
From an impact perspective, this is a short-term benefit for Russia: a large number of "shadow fleets" are quickly clearing inventory, and more and more countries and buyers are rushing to purchase Russian oil on the international market. This may ease global oil prices somewhat, but due to the ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term impact on international oil prices is likely limited. However, this policy has a significant impact on the EU and Ukraine, seen as a concession to Russia, weakening the deterrent power of sanctions. Ukrainian supporters even believe that the U.S. "betrayed its allies."
Overall, this policy has caused significant shocks and new fractures in transatlantic relations. The EU strongly opposed it, calling it "self-defeat" and contradictory: while the U.S. is waging war against Iran, it is indirectly loosening the restrictions on Russia, potentially enhancing Russia's war capabilities and weakening support for Ukraine. The EU emphasized that this would strengthen Russia's finances and undermine the Western united front. The Trump administration acted unilaterally without sufficient coordination with allies, leading Europeans to feel marginalized, further highlighting the differences in strategic priorities between the U.S. and Europe: the U.S. focuses more on energy prices and Middle East realities, while Europe insists on long-term containment of Russia. This may accelerate the trend of disconnection within the Atlantic alliance. If the exemption is extended or expanded, it will mark a major shift in U.S. policy toward Russia, forcing the EU to seek independent energy and sanction paths, intensifying the trust crisis, and creating new divisions on the Ukraine issue.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859544522420551/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.