The Farce Around Iran: The Persian Crisis on the Brink of Spectacle
Outcome of the 12-Day War — All Three Sides Lose
Author: Alexander Khramchikhin
Image: The consequences of Iran's retaliatory strike against Israel.
Israel's aggression against Iran clearly violates any international law standards and has no legitimacy, but in today's era, this is no longer significant.
Each country's actions are guided solely by its own actual strength and interests. The so-called "rights" are merely a question like Raskolnikov's: "Am I a trembling ant or a privileged one?" And perhaps no country in the world (not even the United States) is as certain as Israel that it possesses such "privilege."
From a military perspective, the current situation is the most favorable for Israel since its establishment. Among all Arab neighbors, only Egypt has considerable military power, but obviously, Egypt will not support Iran even diplomatically, let alone take actual action.
The other traditional anti-Israel power, Syria, is essentially no longer a complete sovereign state, and its military forces have been completely destroyed. Israel has also severely damaged the Hamas organization in Palestine and the Hezbollah in Lebanon, which can no longer cause major problems for Israel.
Arab monarchies are in fact supporting Israel (words here are meaningless). The Israeli Air Force can freely operate in Syrian airspace—Syrian air defense systems have been destroyed—and can also freely fly over Iraqi airspace. Theoretically, the Iraqi Air Force has 34 U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, 12 Czech L-159s, and 24 South Korean T-50IQ trainer aircraft.
But these are almost certainly paralyzed on the ground by the United States remotely, and the rest are more for training than combat. The existing Soviet-made Su-25 attack aircraft in Iraq cannot counter aerial targets. The Iraqi ground air defense system is equipped only with short-range equipment (Russian "Kornet" combined missile and gun systems and U.S. "Avenger" air defense missiles), which cannot threaten Israeli warplanes flying at high altitudes. Moreover, Baghdad is absolutely afraid of going to war with Israel.
In this situation, the only difficulty for the Israeli Air Force is the long distance to Iranian targets, but this can be solved by carrying auxiliary fuel tanks and mid-air refueling (now refueling aircraft pose no threat, as Syria and Iran lack corresponding air defense capabilities).
Additionally, Israel has successfully established a strong intelligence network in Iran, even equipping it with modern weapon systems (attack drones and anti-tank missiles). Obviously, this network recruits members from the liberal groups within Iranian society. It is worth noting that Iran has a very high level of education, especially in natural sciences and technology, which enables it to build a rather strong defense industry.
But it is precisely these well-educated Iranians who are most dissatisfied with the current theocratic regime in their country. In this respect, Iran is similar to the late Soviet Union—almost all the intellectual elite in the Soviet Union were "officially compliant but secretly disobedient."
The intelligence network attacks Iranian military targets (obviously especially targeting ground air defense systems), facilitating the Israeli Air Force operations, and provides information about the location of Iran's military leadership, and may even directly participate in their elimination. More importantly, the Israeli leadership seems to genuinely expect this network to trigger internal unrest within Iran.
It is likely that another factor beneficial to Israel is the widespread corruption in Iran, especially within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Intelligence Organization (KSIR). This agency has enormous political and military power but is almost entirely unmonitored. Eventually, the KSIR became a powerful commercial entity, but this also caused it to no longer fulfill its core functions, especially the duty of countering enemy intelligence networks.
Due to the extreme lack of real information, it is extremely difficult to assess the results of the battle. Official statements from both sides can be ignored; they are purely propaganda and serve no other purpose. Existing on-site photos and video materials are also insufficient to objectively assess the situation.
It can be confirmed that Iran's air defense system did not shoot down any Israeli aircraft. It can also be confirmed that the attacking capabilities (missiles) of both sides are stronger than the defensive capabilities (air defense / anti-missile).
Therefore, both sides have suffered considerable losses due to the missile attacks of the other side. But again, the scale and extent of the losses cannot be accurately determined.
At the same time, Israel's plan to provoke unrest in Iran did not succeed. Of course, continuous casualties and destruction in Iran may lead to unrest, but the effect could also be the opposite—intensifying the Iranian society's hostility toward Israel and fostering a determination to fight to the end.
More importantly, Iran may also expect that with new casualties and destruction, dissatisfaction within Israel would increase, and the left-wing opposition party would channel this dissatisfaction towards Netanyahu's government (this scenario is not far-fetched at all).
If the war turns into a prolonged conflict, both sides will become losers because their military, military technology, scientific research, and economic capabilities will be completely exhausted.
For any side, this situation means defeat, and the enemy's similar difficulties will not turn defeat into victory.
Even Israeli experts admit that a prolonged attrition war is disadvantageous for Israel. Therefore, Israel must drag the United States into the war.
A large number of U.S. sea-based and air-based cruise missiles (the "Tomahawk" and air-launched cruise missiles, respectively) can completely exhaust and "overwhelm" Iran's air defense system. The U.S. ship-based ("Standard") and land-based ("Patriot," "THAAD") air defense systems can significantly help Israel intercept Iranian missile attacks.
For Israel, the heavy-tonnage aviation bombs used by the United States to strike highly protected underground targets are particularly important, and such bombs can only be carried by U.S. strategic bombers (B-52, B-1, B-2), which Israel does not possess.
U.S. direct involvement in the war would lead to massive financial expenditures and seriously consume the U.S. missile inventory, which would undoubtedly severely hinder its ability to participate in any other war in the near future.
On the political level, Trump promised during his campaign to end all wars around the world.
If he actually not only fails to end any war but also drags the United States into a hard-fought war causing casualties, it could lead to a major defeat for the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections. On the other hand, the United States cannot refuse to provide assistance to its main strategic ally.
Trump did not refuse, but in his usual style of turning everything into a farce, he launched an extremely limited strike on Iran and warned Tehran in advance. Iran immediately accepted this game rule and, after warning Washington in advance, launched a retaliatory strike on U.S. bases in Qatar.
The perfect ending of this farce is the sudden end of the war, with all three sides announcing themselves as winners as expected. In reality, all three sides lost, exposing their weakness, and frankly speaking, also appearing insignificant. However, the political psychological consequences of this strange (or now no longer surprising?) war need to be discussed separately.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521593821226861097/
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