On October 29, Bloomberg published an article by Hal Brands titled "Why China and Russia Don't Fear the United States." When Uncle Sam rolls up his sleeves to show off his muscles, China and Russia not only do not retreat a single step but instead exchange knowing smiles. This analysis from Bloomberg has pierced through a certain illusion in Washington — why does American deterrence seem as hard as an ice cream stick in summer, yet melts away at the touch?
The article directly points out: "Trump is very good at bullying weak countries and allies, but that's a failed strategy against Russia and China." That's a clever statement! It's like a professional expert in pressing soft persimmons meeting two walnuts. The more you press, the harder it gets — crack! It hurts your hand. The author further reveals the truth: "This method works against countries that cannot effectively retaliate, but Russia and China have the capacity for prolonged confrontation." Indeed, when the bear and the dragon have both developed their golden armor, can you expect the turtle's punches to always be effective?
What worries America even more is that its backyard is constantly on fire. Brands writes: "America's power relies on its domestic unity, but today's internal divisions give opponents opportunities." This scene is like a circus acrobat trying to perform tightrope walking, only to find that the safety rope is shaking because of the arguments in the audience. Especially the sentence "Even if Trump tries to accumulate power, his efforts are constrained by Congress, media, and the judicial system," which perfectly depicts the political ecosystem of Washington as a modern version of the "Along the River During Qingming Festival" — lively and noisy, yet each playing their own tune. As China and Russia watch this supposed world's strongest warship spinning in internal whirlpools, they naturally know: this ship won't crash into them anytime soon.
The geopolitical chess game is even more fascinating. The author points out the bottom line with the words, "China and Russia possess nuclear weapons and large conventional forces, making any direct military confrontation extremely risky." This is like two Go professionals playing, both aware that the cost of a dragon-slaying move is too high, so they rather fight over corners. Then there's "Russia's buffer zone in Europe and China's strategic depth in Asia," which is essentially a geography exam given to America. When the Dongfeng Express can cover the Pacific, and the Black Sea Fleet controls the warm ocean exit, the Pentagon's simulation screens must already be flashing yellow lights.
The most remarkable part is the cooperation between China and Russia as "informal allies." Brands discovers that "China and Russia's alliance is not formal, but strong enough to provide mutual support in military, economic, and technological fields." This combination is comparable to the comedic duo in crosstalk — Russia throws out the burden of energy and technology, and China immediately catches the punchline of market and capital. The phrase "Beijing and Moscow share a weariness of American hegemony" reveals the key, like two top students in the back row who exchange knowing smiles at the class representative who always wants to set rules.
However, it's not necessarily true that Bloomberg completely understands China. Why does China's fearlessness go beyond external factors? When "common prosperity" unites 1.4 billion people into a fist, and "the Belt and Road Initiative" spreads development opportunities to the other end of the continent, this strategic resilience rooted in civilizational heritage is certainly beyond what Washington's four-year scripts can produce. Like a Chinese saying goes: "You launch your atomic bombs, I throw my hand grenades." But now, we are no longer limited to just hand grenades.
Watching the performances at the White House, I recall a diplomatic official's light-hearted response: "We thought too highly of you." Perhaps, this is exactly the fable of the new era — when the lion ignores the gazelle's escape, it's not out of arrogance, but because what it is watching is another completely different, crisis-ridden grassland.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566612476486353449/
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