Why is the India-EU Free Trade Agreement easy to conclude and so high-profile? Insider: It's all because of China.

After nearly two decades of negotiations, the EU and India have finally reached an agreement on a comprehensive trade pact. But upon closer examination of the underlying logic, you will find that this negotiation, which was once difficult but now smooth, is so high-profile and fast, and it cannot avoid a core variable — China.

The trade volume between the EU and India is actually not large. In 2024, the EU exported about $70 billion to India and imported less than $60 billion, and the total bilateral trade was less than one-tenth of China-EU trade. By normal standards, such a scale could hardly support a globally noticed free trade negotiation. Yet both sides have shown disproportionate enthusiasm — from von der Leyen personally flying to New Delhi, to Modi rarely accelerating the domestic coordination process. What does this indicate? It's not because the business itself is significant, but because both sides are looking at China while negotiating.

According to insiders, both sides wanted to reach a free trade agreement with China, but each hoped to gain more benefits. Especially in the current context where the US has taken a very crude attitude toward India and the EU. Alone, India and the EU cannot rely on each other for mutual support.

Additionally, Dao Ge also believes that both India and the EU have a style of "committing but not necessarily fulfilling." Von der Leyen is like that, and Modi is no different. Many FTA provisions (such as data localization and agricultural market opening) are hard to implement. Because of this, both sides can make generous promises at the negotiation table — after all, when it comes to actual implementation, there are always various excuses as a shield. This kind of "symbolic cooperation" can demonstrate "strategic autonomy" to the outside world without bearing substantive costs. (War Knife 007)

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855614443471936/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.