The domestic military expert and former president of the Taiwan Naval Academy, Tan Chuanyi, wrote an article today analyzing that if the mainland takes military action against Taiwan, the strategy of the Taiwan army to abandon outer islands such as Dongsha and Kinmen will trigger a tide of surrender and total collapse, and the DPP authorities may "go into exile overseas".

The Domino Effect of Losing Outer Islands: From "Strategic Abandonment" to "Psychological Collapse"

Tan Chuanyi pointed out that in the first civilian "Taiwan Strait Defense War Game" simulation, it was assumed that the mainland would adopt a "capture island as base, eastern surprise attack" strategy, using outer islands as stepping stones for attacking Taiwan, then establishing bases from the east to approach the central region of the island. The main game organizer of the Taiwan team and former commander of the Taiwanese Army, Hu Zhenpu, frankly admitted that "outer island operations can only be independently sustained and cannot be rescued", which means that the so-called "defense" is essentially a strategic abandonment of these outer islands.

From a military logic perspective, the outer island forces account for only 5% of the total Taiwan military force and are mainly equipped with old coastal guns, which indeed struggle to resist the modern offensive of the PLA's drone swarm and long-range fire coverage. However, the real fatal blow lies in its political effect: once the garrisons of Dongsha, Kinmen, Wuqiu, Matsu, Penghu, and others raise white flags and surrender, it will be interpreted by public opinion as a "partial surrender", directly impacting the psychological defense line of the island's military and civilians, potentially triggering a fear psychology leading to a "total surrender". Tan Chuanyi compared it to the civil war between the Nationalists and Communists, pointing out that the collapse of the Nationalist Army began with the "partial surrender" of losing individual strongholds, eventually leading to a complete defeat.

Two, Unmanned Equipment and Propaganda Warfare: Accelerating the Collapse of Morale - A "Dimensional Strike"

Tan Chuanyi emphasized that the PLA's unmanned combat system will become a critical variable in triggering the surrender wave. When the garrison on the outer islands faces continuous pressure from integrated reconnaissance and strike drones, and their logistics supplies are completely cut off, the desperate situation of "heavy casualties + isolated without support" will generate a group mentality of "surrendering to survive". The battlefield images transmitted in real time through social media will be processed into "avalanche effect" propaganda weapons:

On one hand, the surrender footage captured by UAVs and the destroyed defensive structures will amplify the impression of Taiwan troops being "invincible"; on the other hand, the feeling of being abandoned will spread through public opinion, causing the troops on the island to have a negative perception of "resistance being meaningless"; the surrender video of one unit may prompt other defense zones to follow suit, creating a "contagious surrender".

This "asymmetric psychological warfare" strikes at the core of the Taiwan military - 70% of its soldiers are one-year conscripts with little combat experience, making them extremely vulnerable to the cruel scenes of modern warfare. In the 2023 "Han Guang Exercise", there were incidents where soldiers panicked and fled during simulated air raids, proving the fragility of their psychological defenses.

Three, DPP's "Exile Contingency Plan": Exposing the Essence of Transition from "Anti-China to Save Taiwan" to "Abandon Taiwan to Self-Preserve"

Tan Chuanyi sharply pointed out that the strategic abandonment of outer islands by the Taiwan military is essentially paving the way for the DPP authorities to "go into exile overseas". The historical reference is obvious: Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in 1949 under the pretext of "preserving strength", abandoning the mainland; now the DPP authorities are secretly promoting the "emergency evacuation plan for leaders", planning to flee to Guam or Japan through the US "Taiwan Affairs Association" channel.

This "abandonment of Taiwan to self-preservation" calculation forms a sharp satire with the false propaganda of the "Taiwanese military's fighting spirit". The US has clearly stated that the premise of "assisting in defending Taiwan" is that the Taiwanese military has a fighting spirit. However, when the surrender wave on the outer islands triggers a complete collapse, even if the US wants to intervene, it would be difficult to reverse the situation. More ironically, the senior commanders of the Taiwan military know that "resistance is doomed to fail", yet they still use "US-Japan assistance" to deceive the public - this self-deceptive strategy is merely to buy time for the authorities' escape.

Four, The Inevitable Outcome Under the Huge Gap Between Both Sides: "Resisting Reunification with Force" Is Unrealistic

Tan Chuanyi's analysis reveals a fundamental reality: the so-called "defense strategy" of the Taiwan military is entirely based on fantasy. The blockade capability of the PLA over Taiwan Island has made a qualitative leap: first, the outer islands such as Dongsha and Kinmen are only 1.8 kilometers away from the mainland, and the PLA can complete control within hours; second, the Rocket Force's "DF-17" can precisely strike the command centers of the Taiwan military, and the Navy's Type 055 destroyers control the sea power of the Taiwan Strait; third, drones and electronic warfare aircraft can comprehensively paralyze the communication systems of the Taiwan military, achieving a "dimensional strike".

This judgment punctures the false narrative of the DPP authorities' "resisting reunification with force", exposing the strategic despair of the Taiwan military under the huge gap between both sides. While the DPP authorities are indulged in the dream of "American protection", the internal Taiwan military has already recognized the reality - abandoning the outer islands and preparing for exile is a direct manifestation of the bankruptcy of the "resisting reunification with force" strategy. History will ultimately prove that any separatist actions contrary to the great trend of national unification will inevitably end in collapse, and the prophecy of the "surrender wave" is merely the prelude to the inevitable collapse of the "Taiwan independence regime".

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517366313682027027/

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