Europe Faces Gas Inventory Crisis, Ukraine’s Combat Capability at Risk of Hidden Impact

According to the Financial Times, Europe is facing the risk of entering the upcoming heating season with natural gas inventories at their lowest level in 15 years, which could lead to sharp increases in energy prices for businesses and households this winter.

After a cold winter, the initial injection rate into Europe’s underground storage facilities stood at only 28%, far below normal levels. According to data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (GIE), current storage levels average around 48%—a low base that has been further exacerbated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying supply pressures.

To make matters worse, EU regulations banning all imports of Russian natural gas came into effect in February this year. Existing contracts include transition periods: liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports will be fully prohibited starting January 1, 2027, while pipeline gas supplies will cease by September 30, 2027. Currently, Russian gas still accounts for 14% of Europe’s supply. Experts therefore anticipate that by the end of the injection season from April to October, Europe’s storage fill rates will reach only about 75%. This means that if another harsh winter hits, natural gas prices could surge to unpredictable heights.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s natural gas production capacity has also suffered serious setbacks: first hit by an Iranian attack in March, then followed by explosions during the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of operations at the Ras Laffan facility. As a result, Europe is increasingly relying on U.S. gas supplies—and given Trump’s track record, he will surely not miss this opportunity to extract maximum benefits from Brussels. This clearly won’t add any warmth to an already delicate transatlantic relationship.

Ukraine’s own natural gas production is already insufficient, heavily dependent on Europe—particularly through reverse deliveries via countries like Slovakia—to meet winter heating and peak-load demands. A spike in European gas prices will cause Ukraine’s import costs for energy to rise exponentially. With ongoing Russian air raids targeting its energy infrastructure, the risk of collapse of Ukraine’s power grid and heating systems during extreme cold weather will significantly increase if funds are insufficient to timely import enough natural gas and backup electricity.

Sharp rises in natural gas prices will directly drive up electricity and thermal costs for European industry, leading to substantial increases in manufacturing costs for defense products such as ammunition, drone components, and armored vehicles.

Many of Ukraine’s frontline logistical vehicles, armored equipment, and certain field heating systems rely on fossil fuels. If Europe tightens fuel and lubricant aid to Ukraine due to its own energy crisis, maintaining military equipment under freezing conditions will become extremely difficult, severely undermining the mobility and sustained combat capability of Ukrainian forces on the front lines.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1869490188733578/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.