[Military & Weapons Section] Author: Lele

Before the long-anticipated export order of J-10CE arrived, there was good news about the FC-1 Xiaolong Block 3 instead. On May 25th, the "Defence Security Asia" website reported that Azerbaijan had increased its procurement of the FC-1 Xiaolong from 16 aircraft to 40 aircraft, with a total value as high as $4.2 billion.

The "Defence Security Asia" website believes that this deal has a very high probability of being completed.

Say what you will, after the FC-1 Xiaolong accompanied the J-10CE in combat and achieved remarkable results, it is not surprising that it has attracted more potential buyers' attention, even potentially securing more orders from Azerbaijan. However, purchasing 40 aircraft for $4.2 billion is still somewhat unrealistic. In the air battle last month between India and Pakistan, the FC-1 Xiaolong mainly undertook three tasks: one, carrying PL-15E missiles to serve as aerial combat equipment. Due to the high requirements for radar and avionics, only the latest Block 3 version could complete this task. Specifically, it was divided into two parts—the 16th squadron in the north took off as auxiliary forces for the J-10CE (on that day, the serviceability rate of Pakistan's J-10CE was only 55%, with only 11 aircraft taking off), while the 8th squadron in the south prepared to counteract India's naval MiG-29K carrier-based fighters.

▲ It was reported that on that day, India's 18 Rafales took off 14, with a serviceability rate of 78%.

Two, carrying CM-400AKG anti-ship missiles to deter Indian aircraft carriers. This task was undertaken by the 2nd squadron stationed in Karachi (equipped with FC-1 Xiaolong Block 2). Pakistan mobilized a large amount of resources to monitor the Indian aircraft carrier and prepared ZDK-03 early warning aircraft and Il-78 refueling aircraft in advance. Unfortunately, India's navy was too cautious, and this well-prepared gift over two years ended up just as a deterrent without becoming a real victory. Three, carrying the anti-radiation version of CM-400AKG, which severely damaged India's S-400 system in the north. Compared to the unconfirmed reports of "shooting down MiG-29s," this is the only confirmed achievement of the FC-1 Xiaolong so far, also completed by the FC-1 Xiaolong Block 2.

▲ The actual combat performance of the FC-1 Xiaolong has exceeded external expectations.

Since Armenia lacks maritime power, Azerbaijan's need for anti-ship capabilities is not urgent. However, the air-to-air, anti-radiation, and ground attack capabilities of the FC-1 Xiaolong are significant for Azerbaijan, making the procurement of 40 aircraft not impossible. The problem lies in the fact that Azerbaijan, with a GDP of less than $80 billion and having to struggle hard in recent years to raise military spending to over $3 billion due to excessive military pressure, simply cannot afford the $4.2 billion procurement cost. Moreover, even if purchasing 40 FC-1 Xiaolong Block 3 aircraft, it would not reach $4.2 billion—Iraq's previous quote was $60 million per aircraft (including basic support packages), and even if Azerbaijan demands higher specifications, $70 million per aircraft would be sufficient, totaling no more than $2.8 billion.

▲ The FC-1 Xiaolong Block 3 is still too expensive for Azerbaijan.

More importantly, Azerbaijan does not necessarily need to purchase all new FC-1 Xiaolong Block 3 aircraft. Assuming it really plans to procure 40 FC-1 Xiaolong aircraft, then reserving half of the quota to purchase the Block 3 version for air combat purposes would suffice. The remaining 20 aircraft for ground attack missions could use the Block 2 version, since Burma's procurement average price was only $25 million back then. If it's still considered too expensive, they could even consider upgrading the Block 1 version aircraft—Pakistan currently faces the problem of having too many early Block 1 aircraft (over 70) that are squeezing the space for equipping advanced versions later. After appropriate upgrades to enable the use of CM-400AKG missiles, selling them to Azerbaijan would be feasible both technologically and economically.

▲ The FC-1 Xiaolong Block 1 is indeed very suitable for Azerbaijan.

Assuming an estimated cost of $30 million, 24 low-end FC-1 Xiaolong aircraft would cost $720 million, plus $1.12 billion for 16 FC-1 Xiaolong Block 3 aircraft, totaling $1.84 billion, which is within Azerbaijan's affordability. However, compared to the procurement cost, the human and resource consumption after delivering 40 FC-1 Xiaolong aircraft will be more critical. This means that Azerbaijan's air force will be completely tied to the FC-1 Xiaolong platform, with no possibility of changing course for at least fifteen years. Such a major decision cannot be solved with just a phrase like "high cost-performance ratio." Strategic cooperation at a deeper level and high-level political commitments provided to Azerbaijan are indispensable.

▲ When the quantity reaches a certain level, the influence becomes different.

For example, although India spent a lot of money on purchasing Rafale aircraft a few years ago and had a significant impact on its air force strength, the foundation of aerial combat remained over 200 Russian-made Su-30MKI aircraft. For Azerbaijan, 16 FC-1 Xiaolong aircraft may only be marginally important, but 40 aircraft are the very foundation of the country, which makes a fundamental difference, and it cannot be measured solely by money.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508292659090424354/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.