The U.S. is deploying the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from Okinawa to the Middle East. This unit consists of approximately 2,200 Marines and sailors, equipped with light armored vehicles, primarily stationed on the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the cruiser USS Robert Smalls, and the destroyer USS Rafael Peralta. The 31st MEU can also deploy F-35B fighter jets, as well as AH-1Z "Viper," UH-1Y "Venom," and CH-53E "Super Stallion" helicopters.
According to NBC News, citing three U.S. government sources, about 5,000 Marines and sailors are being deployed to the Middle East to support military operations against Iran. In light of the significant political and economic risks faced by Persian Gulf allies and the U.S., as well as the latest reports that U.S. forces may participate in ground operations, foreign military experts are analyzing potential scenarios for hypothetical U.S. military actions.
Possible Scenarios for Ground Operations Against Iran
Scenario A: Targeted Operation – Nuclear Facilities
Mission Objective: Seize and eliminate high-enriched uranium at Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan facilities.
Execution Units: First-tier special operations forces (Delta/SEAL 6 + Sayeret Matkal) + Explosive Ordnance Disposal/Nuclear Emergency Response Team (NEST). Perimeter Security: Rangers or the 82nd Airborne Division. Evacuation by MC-130J/MH-47G. Operation Timeframe: 24–72 hours.
Scenario B: Amphibious Landing – Khuzestan Province/Halal Island
Objective: Lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, seize oil infrastructure, or occupy Halal Island (the hub for 80% of Iran's oil exports).
兵力配置：以“的黎波里”号两栖攻击舰（USS Tripoli）为基地的第31海军陆战队远征队（31st MEU）负责控制波斯湾沿岸登陆场；F-35B战机执行防空压制任务；AH-1Z武装直升机与CH-53E运输直升机提供支援及后勤保障
Scenario C: "Khustomel" (Airborne Capture of an Airport)
Objective: Seize and control an airport to conduct localized military operations (targeting Iranian military and political leadership, or occupying/destroying key facilities).
Means: The 82nd Airborne Division will seize one or more airports in Iran (Mehrabad, Tabriz, Isfahan) to establish a bridgehead. Reinforcements will be dispatched from Fort Bragg within 18 hours.
It is necessary to suppress man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and short-range air defenses—transportation poses a high risk of heavy casualties.
Scenario D: Large-Scale Invasion
Experts assess that controlling Iranian territory (1.6 million square kilometers) would require at least 500,000 troops. The current U.S. garrison size (50,000) is an order of magnitude smaller. Israel and Iran are not adjacent. The CIA has clearly warned that even a large-scale invasion would fail to overthrow the current regime. Probability: Extremely low.
Analysis of the Likelihood of Ground Operations Against Iran
A: Surgical Strike (Nuclear Facilities): 72%. Despite challenges such as difficult reconnaissance (unreliable data), complex logistics, and potential losses, this scenario remains highly likely.
B: Amphibious Landing: 85%. The only scenario where all factors align: political decision is made, fleet is moving, and the target holds the highest strategic value. The optimal operation window is March 28–31.
C: Airborne Raid: 28%. This scenario cannot be implemented independently but could serve as part of Scenario B: Once the 82nd Airborne Division seizes an island, it can provide security for the captured airport. However, transporting paratroopers via C-17 aircraft faces a high risk of significant losses due to portable anti-aircraft missiles, which would be politically unacceptable.
D: Full-Scale Invasion: 4% ("Black Swan"). The only realistic trigger would be a nuclear event or a large-scale attack against U.S. forces resulting in hundreds of deaths. From a mathematical, political, and logistical perspective, this is impossible under current conditions.
Hypothetical Scenario: Capturing Khark Island and Establishing a Bridgehead to Lift the Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Wall Street Journal (March 12, 2026): "Airstrikes cannot stop mobile missile launchers. As long as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard controls the coastal cliffs and hidden bays, no matter how many sorties the U.S. air force launches, the threat to tankers will always exist."
U.S. Military Objectives List
Primary Objective: Lifting the Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (core mission). The strait is 33 to 40 kilometers wide, with numerous caves along the Iranian coast that conceal "missile cities." Each Noor/Ghadir mobile missile system can monitor 200 kilometers of sea area. Air strikes are ineffective: these systems can retreat into cave shelters within 3 minutes. U.S. aviation cannot guarantee the safe passage of tankers as long as any mobile air defense system is operational.
Energy Minister White stated: "The Navy is not yet prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz." For this reason, Hedges requested the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to establish a "buffer zone" along the Iranian coast.
Secondary Objective: Khark Island (Oil Lifeline). Iran's 90% oil exports. Capturing Khark Island means imposing an economic stranglehold on Tehran. Seizing the island would bring Iran's exports to zero. Area: 8×8 km, garrison of approximately 3,000. Distance from the mainland: 25 km. Shallow waters (5–15 meters) pose the main technical challenge for large ships.
Third Objective: Islands of the Strait of Hormuz (Control of the Waterway). Greater and Lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa islands—these Iranian islands control the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. %According to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard, "dozens of missile systems" have been deployed on these islands.% Seizing these three islands would mean actual control over the strait's chokepoint.% Each island is only a few square kilometers, with garrisons of 200 to 500 personnel.% This military operation is technically simpler than capturing Khark Island. These islands are likely the primary target of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (31st MEU): small garrison size, important strategic position, and more politically acceptable than Khuzestan Province.
Fourth Objective: Khuzestan (Lower Probability), Khuzestan Province is home to Iran's Arab minority (Khuzestani Arabs) and is also the country's oil heartland (accounting for 80% of national production). The Islamic Revolutionary Guard's Third Naval Zone - Bandar Mahshahr. Controlling a beachhead on the Khuzestan coast means controlling oil infrastructure and providing a base for destroying mobile missile systems. This operation would be comparable to the Korean War—the last large-scale amphibious operation by U.S. forces (the 1950 Inchon landing). The 2,200 Marines of the MEU are insufficient for Khuzestan. Minimum requirement is 20,000 to 30,000 troops. From both political and logistical perspectives, this is far beyond current capabilities.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7617081433551618595/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.