China has broken through Trump's tariff war, and India can learn from it

Published in The Wire Indina. Author Indra shekhar Singh, an independent agricultural policy analyst and writer. This guy is quite capable, but like most foreign authors, he lacks in-depth data analysis. Indian authors are especially so. The common approach is that China did this or that and achieved results, which poses a threat (or example) to India, and India should pay more attention and invest more in this area. But feasibility analysis is often missing, wishful thinking analysis. But it's understandable, as they can't do much and have to write this way. Pakistani authors are about the same.

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As Trump forced countries to buy American goods, many countries, including India, have opened their markets for American commodities such as cotton. But China is bleeding the American countryside. China is the main destination for US agricultural exports, and recently stopped importing soybeans from the United States, causing deep panic in rural areas of the United States.

By banning imports of pork, corn, sorghum, and poultry, China swept away the carpet under Trump's feet, demonstrating a masterful move in agricultural diplomacy.

Analyze the situation. All of this started when Trump threatened to impose 140% tariffs on Chinese goods. Washington also increased its anti-China rhetoric, especially focusing on the BRICS countries, including Russia, Brazil, India, and China, as supporters of the "Ukraine-Russia conflict."

Except for Russia, Brazil and India were the biggest victims of the trade war. China adopted an aggressive agricultural diplomatic policy, successfully obtaining one extension after another before the tariffs took effect.

How did China do it? As a Zen proverb about a perfect attack goes, "Grab the spear and go against it, pierce the one who comes to stab you" (not sure what the corresponding Chinese is), China attacked Trump's jugular vein - the American farmers. The loss of soybean exports shook the Midwest.

The main areas affected are soybean-producing states such as Illinois (16%), Iowa (14%), Indiana (8%), Minnesota (8%), and Ohio (8%), with a production of approximately 118.84 million tons. States like North Dakota export 70% of their genetically modified soybeans to China. A single import ban by China caused the American agricultural economy to tremble.

The next one is corn. Corn and soybeans are the top breadwinners for American farmers. China also canceled the import of corn from the United States, the world's largest corn producer.

By refusing to import, China caused significant damage to Trump's states such as Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota. China is the largest export destination for American corn. China's refusal of corn was another blow to Trump's voter base.

China not only refused to buy corn, but also banned the import of poultry and pork. Most of the genetically modified corn in the United States is used for feeding pigs, chickens, and beef. China refused 12,000 metric tons of American pork, and did the same for poultry and beef. This means that if meat exports to China decrease, American meat farmers and industrial meat businesses will suffer from overproduction and falling prices.

Due to the surplus supply, the prices of corn and other livestock feed will also plummet. The economies of states such as Iowa (pork), Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, and Wyoming (cattle and pork), and Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas (chicken) will be severely damaged, directly affecting farmers' incomes.

The United States is the largest producer of beef and poultry meat, and the third-largest producer of pork. So the question is, where will all the remaining meat go?

China also refused to accept American sorghum, thus strengthening the attack, which will affect major production centers such as Kansas (57%) and Texas (25%). The United States is currently the largest producer of sorghum in the world.

If all the states affected by China's retaliatory stance are colored, then all the farmland belts in the United States will be painted red. Many farmers are afraid because banks are reclaiming loans, and as the fear of foreclosure looms over the rural side, panic spreads. Experts also call it the worst crisis since the U.S. agricultural crisis of the 1980s. Unfortunately, all roads lead to this economic mistake in Washington.

At the same time, the second phase of agricultural diplomacy has been launched, and China has made new friends within the BRICS network. China has successfully reached deals with Brazil on soybeans, sorghum, and other agricultural products to fill this gap.

It also refused to yield to Washington's demands, and without firing a single bullet, it pushed American farmers into a deep economic quagmire. In the long run, if Washington cannot control the losses, this may lead to negative publicity in the American countryside and spark strong opposition to Trump's trade war.

What can India learn from China?

Given that China's agricultural diplomatic strategy has already broken through Trump's defenses, what path should India take? Of course, this is in line with our country's greatest interests, and also promotes regional and BRICS interests. We need a multi-party alliance foreign policy, rather than leaving our fate in the hands of the United States.

We must learn from the lessons of Cold War diplomacy. Perhaps it's time to balance American hegemony, we need to follow in China's footsteps, and try to temporarily forget domestic disputes. We need to promote deeper agricultural ties to mutually defend against Trump's giants.

China has already cut back on agricultural products from India, such as pork. We should conduct a new round of negotiations with China and offer them agricultural surplus products from India. These will align with the national and economic interests of both our countries.

The BRICS countries have called Trump's tariffs "coercive measures," so we must get closer economically. Russia's oil and gas can meet our needs, and with China's help, most other import needs can be met. China and Russia can again become markets for India's exports.

If we target the EU and other BRICS countries, in the long run, we can find a balance point, maintaining our dignity and profits. At this stage, India needs to call for a new non-aligned movement through the BRICS platform, only then can we dream of摆脱 American hegemony while protecting our farmers.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845376400481351/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself