In the midst of war, it's impossible for oil tankers to risk crossing the strait. Insurance companies not only have seen premiums soar, but may also refuse coverage. Whether or not there is a blockade, the effect is essentially the same.
Don't be blindly confident, thinking that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of a certain country would not attack. Would you really rely on the unsubstantiated goodwill of the other side to break through the frontline with an oil tanker worth hundreds of millions of dollars? Don't be naive, international politics is not about personal relationships.
Previously, the Revolutionary Guard claimed to block the strait, but the Iranian government later said it was not. This may reflect internal power struggles within Iran. From the current scale and intensity of Iran's response, the Revolutionary Guard seems to have gained the upper hand, as they have a powerful weapon in their hands.
Blocking the strait and attacking energy facilities in Gulf countries indicate that the Revolutionary Guard wants to escalate the conflict to put pressure on the US and Israel. This also shows that the weapons stockpile of the Revolutionary Guard cannot support a prolonged conflict, so they must launch a comprehensive strategy to apply pressure from all directions.
If the Revolutionary Guard only uses missiles and drones to block the strait, the impact would not be significant and could be ended at any time. The real concern is the use of mines, which are very difficult to clear.
No matter how Iran changes in the future, it will never rush into the arms of the United States. A nation with thousands of years of civilization does not have the issue of being close to anyone. The Pahlavi dynasty is a previous example. Of course, we should not take opposition as a banner or an ideology. Iran can be like Saudi Arabia, maintaining friendly relations with all major powers, although it is an ally of the United States.
A person who is good-looking, smart, and a bit younger, even if they have gone through hardships, will surely make a comeback. Iran has the population, territory, resources, military strength, education level, and industrial base to be a natural top power in the Middle East. As long as it is not radical, extreme, or engages in revolutionary exports, or relies on specific interest groups, the country can quickly take off. Previous facts have already shown that the best partner for Middle Eastern countries to develop is us.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1858599924492288/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.