The United States President Donald Trump, after less than two months in office, launched a "self-revolution" with great force, dismantling the federal mechanism, adjusting foreign policies, and wielding trade wars as weapons to strike globally. However, instead of painting a grandiose picture of "Making America Great Again," this "revolution" has brought wailing within the U.S. and turmoil in global markets. Meanwhile, America's radical policies are tearing apart its alliances, disrupting the global trading system, and inadvertently paving the way for the expansion of China's influence. As long as China persists in staying strong, embracing challenges with an open and responsible demeanor as a major country, it will seize unprecedented opportunities amidst this chaos.
Trump's ultimate fantasy: American "reindustrialization" and its cost. The Trump administration attempts to revitalize American manufacturing through high tariffs and unilateralism, pursuing so-called "reindustrialization." From imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum to plans to implement "reciprocal tariffs" on global trade partners starting April 2nd, to rumored new tariffs on "trillion-dollar" imports, the White House’s ambitions are no small feat. However, such policies not only guarantee failure but also push the U.S. economy to the brink of recession. The S&P 500 index has fallen 10% from its February peak, JPMorgan raised the probability of a U.S. economic downturn to 40%, with some economists even believing it has reached 50%. Americans are beginning to cut back on spending, small businesses face bankruptcy threats, and social anxiety is pervasive. Tesla cars by Musk have become objects of vandalism, and a more divided America has entered a painful phase.
Ironically, the Trump team seems indifferent to this. Commerce Secretary Ross called the economic downturn "worthwhile," Treasury Secretary Mnuchin viewed it as "detoxification," and fantasized about reshaping international finance through something akin to the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," forcing allies to sell dollar assets and buy American Century bonds to achieve dollar devaluation and a revival of manufacturing. However, this "robbing the rich to help the poor"-style calculation overlooks a fundamental fact: under globalization, the U.S. has lost its comparative advantage in large-scale manufacturing; high tariffs will only raise prices, suppress consumption, and ultimately destroy its own economic foundation.
One direct consequence of Trump's move: allies drift away, and global trade suffers. Reciprocal tariffs treat friends and foes alike, the threatening and dismissive stance has infuriated traditional partners like Canada and Europe. The plan to impose a 200% tariff on European alcohol directly impacts allied economies. Not to mention cutting the budget of the U.S. International Media Agency and self-weakening in ideological competition, which has caused unprecedented division within the "Western" camp.
For China, America's "self-revolution" is both a challenge and an opportunity. Trump's unilateralism was dubbed "Chuan Guojian" during his first term, and now the escalating trade war and estrangement from allies create conditions for China to expand its influence. The slump in the U.S. stock market, the drifting away of allies, and the damage to the global trading system all weaken America's position as the center of the world economy. As the leader of Asia's economy, if China can maintain strategic resolve and embrace openness to stabilize regional situations, it could fill the power vacuum left by the U.S.
In the short term, China needs to address the pressure on exports caused by the trade war; but in the long run, America's mistakes are paving the way for China's rise. America's acknowledgment of the trend towards multipolarity benefits China's geopolitical landscape. As long as China stabilizes disputes in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, South China Sea, avoids conflict escalation, and continuously promotes economic openness and international cooperation, it can stand out amidst Trump 2.0's chaos. But the key now is that China does not need to rush to fill the void left by the U.S., but should focus on enhancing its own strength and international image. By adhering to reform and opening up, maintaining the multilateral trading system, and demonstrating the responsibility of a major country, China can steady itself amidst global turbulence and even become a dominant force in Asian economics, politics, and security.
Trump's "revolution" has been efficient, but at the cost of America's own suffering. China does not need to act proactively; it just needs to wait quietly for America to fall into chaos and do its part well. Opportunities for China will naturally arise. As the saying goes: heroes emerge in times of chaos; America's confusion might just be the prelude to China's rise.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493428176593453604/
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