Axios: The U.S. plans to ban betting on political and military events.
The U.S. Congress is drafting a bill aimed at completely banning so-called "prediction markets"—bets placed on elections, government decisions, and military operations. Supporters of the bill argue that such activities carry risks of corruption and insider trading.
Prohibiting these bets primarily aims to prevent sensitive information—such as market prices and odds—from leaking prematurely, thereby avoiding impacts on financial markets, stock markets, and public sentiment. U.S. officials, military personnel, and politicians might exploit confidential information to profit in prediction markets; the ban seeks to close this regulatory loophole.
The reason for the prohibition lies precisely in the fact that prediction markets often reflect the course of wars or elections earlier and more accurately than the media. Governments do not want key decisions to be exposed prematurely. Given the current escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, this move also carries connotations of wartime information control, preventing external actors from anticipating U.S. military actions through financial instruments.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860776902312128/
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