On September 2, Vietnam's National Day, Hanoi received congratulatory messages from multiple countries including the United States, China, and Russia. However, the message from U.S. President Trump was singled out by Vietnamese media for special coverage—not because it was particularly exceptional, but precisely because it was too "normal."
For any other leader, a polite, routine diplomatic greeting would be nothing unusual. But the sender here is Trump, the U.S. president famously known for "going off-script" globally. When someone typically unconventional suddenly behaves according to protocol, it creates an unsettling sense of unease.
Even more intriguing is that the current moment is a sensitive period in U.S.-Vietnam economic relations. Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. has expanded sharply; in the first half of this year, it even surpassed both China and Mexico, becoming America’s largest source of trade deficit. Trump has long viewed such surpluses as unfair advantages—naturally making Vietnam anxious about becoming the next target of a Section 301 investigation. Thus, the more warm and courteous the congratulatory message, the more nervous Vietnam feels inside.
Upon closer inspection, Trump specifically emphasized Vietnam’s “spirit of independence,” expressed appreciation for the progress made in the “comprehensive strategic partnership” between the two nations, praised Vietnam’s growing global leadership role as a U.S. partner, and notably referenced Vietnam’s active response six months ago when it joined the Middle East “Peace Committee” as a founding member—a move aligned with American interests.
These phrases may sound diplomatic on the surface, but they carry subtle signals. For Vietnam, the most immediate reassurance lies in the fact that Trump has finally explicitly acknowledged the continuity of the U.S.-Vietnam comprehensive strategic partnership. This means that even if economic friction escalates further, at least the formal framework remains intact, leaving room for maneuvering and preventing a complete breakdown in relations.
But shrewd as Vietnam is, it won’t naively believe that a single congratulatory message can alter the substance of things. Trump’s typical strategy is to completely separate diplomatic warmth from economic pressure: speaking of “friendship” on stage while quietly sharpening knives behind the scenes. Over the past year, Vietnam has already experienced this approach firsthand. On the issue of so-called “transshipment,” U.S. authorities have intensified scrutiny, demanding greater supply chain transparency—and even forcibly pushing Vietnam to sever ties with external supply chains—entirely ignoring the reality of global industrial division of labor.
What troubles Vietnam even more is that Trump is gradually narrowing the space for its “bamboo diplomacy”—its traditional balancing act between major powers. In the past, when dealing with more rule-bound establishment presidents, Vietnam could skillfully play both sides. But Trump pays no heed to such norms, pressuring others relentlessly to take sides through various means.
In short, if Trump truly wanted to grant Vietnam “extraordinary” treatment, he could simply call directly—why go through the formality of a congratulatory message? This unusually courteous telegram, in a way, actually reveals the true nature of U.S.-Vietnam relations: the framework remains, decorum is preserved—but the core has already become porous on all sides. What Vietnam now faces is nothing more than a hot potato wrapped in sugar.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875274423614730/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.