【Wen/Observer Net Wang Yi】As US President Trump continues to pressurize Greenland, a previously unthinkable idea has quietly emerged within Europe: What would a counterattack look like? Their proposed countermeasure is to cut military cooperation with the United States and reclaim U.S. military bases in Europe.

"Politico" European edition reported on January 15 that this topic is extremely sensitive, to the extent that European diplomats have deliberately avoided discussing it openly at formal occasions such as EU or NATO summits. However, five officials and diplomats confirmed that multiple European countries are privately seriously discussing how to "counter Trump".

Military confrontation is clearly not an option for Europe. The report points out that if a military confrontation were to occur between the US and Europe, the result could be one of the shortest wars in history. However, several European officials believe that Greenland's allies still have other means to balance the power of the US. The real leverage that Europe holds is not on the battlefield, but in the overseas military bases that sustain the US global hegemony.

Some European officials have secretly questioned: If the US attempts to seize Greenland, a sovereign territory of a NATO member country, why should Europe continue to provide bases, ports, airspace, and intelligence support for the US military?

Several European diplomats revealed that potential "counter-Trump" strategies discussed include delaying negotiations, lobbying Republicans in Washington, sending troops to Greenland, and launching public opinion campaigns in the US. Among them, more radical strategies involve cutting support for US military deployments overseas and reclaiming control over US military bases in Europe.

"There have always been discussions about how we can pressure them, telling the US 'you need us, and if you do this, we will retaliate in some way,' " said a diplomat. "However, at the same time, no one is willing to talk about it publicly."

Europe maintains restraint in public mainly because it still highly depends on US support for Ukraine's security. In any potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the US security guarantee is considered indispensable by Europe. The report states that although the situation in Greenland has caused unease, some officials in the EU and the UK consider it not the most urgent security issue at present, fearing that this dispute might divert Europe's attention from the Russia-Ukraine issue. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, "pleasing Trump" should still be the priority.

Moreover, a NATO diplomat pointed out that using US military bases as a bargaining chip is a "double-edged sword," as it would bring losses to both sides. Europe would further lose its security guarantees, while the US would lose its most important forward operating platform.

The US Pituifik Space Base on Greenland, Reuters

However, some European officials believe they still have more leverage. They point out that the US still heavily relies on European military facilities. Last June, when Trump ordered airstrikes against Iran, the US military expected strong resistance and sought support from European air forces; just last week, the US used a British base to intercept a Russian oil tanker in the North Atlantic.

Data shows that as of 2024, the US European Command system has 31 permanent bases and 19 other military facilities, deploying at least 67,500 active-duty personnel, mainly concentrated in Germany, Italy, and the UK. The Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany is the largest NATO base in Europe, while the RAF Lakenheath and Mildenhall airbases in the UK house about 3,000 troops. The Aviano Air Base in Italy is known as a key aerial force hub for NATO.

Former US Army Commander in Europe Ben Hodges stated that these bases are "crucial" to the US global strategy. If forced to withdraw, it would cause "catastrophic" consequences for US operations, and the US would also lose half of its intelligence-sharing capabilities.

Hodges also believes that Europe may threaten to stop purchasing American weapons. In 2024 alone, European countries approved government contracts for American military weapons worth $76 billion, accounting for more than half of the global procurement total. "Politico" European edition also mentioned that trade is another potential lever for Europe. Europe is not only one of the US's most important trading partners, but also the largest buyer of American weapons, all of which could serve as leverage for Europe.

Hodges called on Europe: "Europe can save NATO and transatlantic relations with the US by bravely opposing America, rather than yielding and becoming a scapegoat."

Although legally, the closure of US military bases involves complex logistics and asset disposal issues, Jeffrey Cohen, director of the Center for Military Law and Policy at Texas Tech University, said that whether to terminate the US presence depends essentially on the domestic laws of European countries. "It is their choice."

Some European officials say that taking strong countermeasures could quickly trigger a complete breakdown of transatlantic relations. But others believe that under Trump's leadership, the US-EU alliance is becoming increasingly toxic, and Europe must start preparing for a "post-American era."

"Politico" European edition noted that French President Macron is currently one of the few European leaders who have released the "most direct signals of retaliation." He recently stated in internal remarks that if the sovereignty of a European ally is violated, the chain reaction would be "unprecedented," and France would "fully support Denmark." French officials also emphasized that the Greenland issue is extremely sensitive, and Macron "carefully weighs every word he says."

In fact, Denmark and Greenland have already proactively gone to Washington to negotiate with the Trump administration, but the results are not optimistic.

On the 14th, Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Rubio held talks in Washington with visiting Danish Foreign Minister Larsen and the foreign minister of the autonomous government of Greenland, Møtzelfelt, discussing the future of Greenland. Larsen admitted after the meeting that Trump still holds the idea of "conquering Greenland," and there are "fundamental differences" between the two sides.

With the negotiation breakdown, multiple European countries began deploying troops to Greenland on the 14th to show support for Denmark and Greenland and to prevent Trump's annexation ambitions. According to reports, France has already sent 15 soldiers to Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, to carry out missions, while Germany dispatched a "reconnaissance mission team" consisting of 13 soldiers. Additionally, Sweden will send "several officers," Finland and Norway will send 2 each, and the UK and Netherlands will each send 1 naval officer.

As for this, White House spokesperson Caroline Levette responded on January 15 in a light-hearted manner, stating that the US is aware of the European countries' troop deployment plans, but "it will not affect" the US decision-making objectives regarding Greenland.

An EU official commented: "Transatlantic relations are changing, and they cannot go back to the past."

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7595873291592581672/

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