Petrol, Tomatoes, and the Trade Mafia: Moscow is Looking for Baku's Weakness in Russia

Azerbaijan's Threat to Provide Military Aid to Ukraine Triggers a Response

Alexander Mikhailov, Andrei Suzdaltsev

After a period of calm, relations between Moscow and Baku have once again become tense. The situation has escalated to the point where members of the State Duma have proposed a complete ban on imports from Azerbaijan. This was said by the MP Andrei Guryev.

In his view, after implementing the corresponding import ban, the shelves in Russia would not change, while Azerbaijan's situation would be "completely different." Guryev believes that it is also possible to "hit" Azerbaijani companies in Russia.

This proposal by the MP is related to Baku's response to the attack on an SOCAR company oil depot in Ukraine. President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan called this attack deliberate. Baku is considering lifting the arms embargo against Kyiv.

Doctor of military science Konstantin Sivkov believes that these weapons are mainly Soviet-era. Moreover, Azerbaijan can sell the weapons previously supplied by Russia to Baku or Western weapons provided to Azerbaijan by countries such as Turkey.

Economists have started discussing Russia's response to a potential trade embargo on Azerbaijan. In 2024, the trade volume between Azerbaijan and Russia was approximately $4.8 billion. In terms of this indicator, Russia ranks third among Azerbaijan's foreign trade partners, behind Italy and Turkey. Azerbaijan's exports to Russia amounted to $1.178 billion, while Russia's imports from Azerbaijan were $3.621 billion.

The main exports from Azerbaijan to Russia are mineral raw materials (mainly natural gas), textiles, cotton, and agricultural products.

MP of United Russia Party Andrei Guryev believes that a trade embargo would hurt Azerbaijan. Is this really the case? We asked this question to political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and Political Science at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

"In recent times, it is not the first time that MPs have proposed limiting trade with Azerbaijan. However, it has never been implemented because this trade is largely beneficial to Russia. Our trade surplus is positive: Azerbaijan's exports to Russia exceed its imports. This is beneficial for us, for example, because Azerbaijan's tomatoes ripen earlier than ours, and fruits are available almost all year round.

Except for fruit and vegetable products, there is nothing else crucial for us from Azerbaijan. But there is one factor to consider: almost all the products entering our market are agricultural products from Azerbaijani farmers. That is, a trade embargo would hit ordinary people, not the ruling elite of Azerbaijan. The affected are ordinary Azerbaijanis who are far from politics.

"SP": If we really refuse their tomatoes and peaches, can Azerbaijan easily find alternative markets for its agricultural products?

"The loss would be huge. Russia is the main buyer of Azerbaijan's agricultural products. Azerbaijani farmers would have great difficulty finding alternative markets for their products, primarily because European countries have strict sanitary controls. And out of the principle of 'brotherhood,' we often turn a blind eye to many aspects. Additionally, many European countries have climatic conditions that allow them to grow their own vegetables and fruits in large quantities."

"SP": But apart from fruit and vegetable products, our trade also includes oil. Can Russia influence Azerbaijan by restricting the transportation of oil through its territory?

"Russia traditionally supplies oil to Azerbaijan — last year, its procurement amounted to 1.53 million tons. It is advantageous for Azerbaijan to purchase oil from Russia to meet domestic demand, while selling its own oil at high prices to Europe.

There is a clever way: Russia controls the Caspian Sea, and oil from Central Asia is transported to Azerbaijan via tankers on the Caspian Sea, then to Europe. Russia, with its fleet capabilities, could block this transport route. Even temporarily, as a preventive measure. But this is not the best approach, as it would harm the interests of countries we do not want to quarrel with."

"SP": So, a trade embargo is not the solution?

"It seems so. In my opinion, the most effective measure is to strike at the markets of Azerbaijanis in Russia, many of which are operated by immigrants from this Caucasus Republic. Their entire income bypasses Russia. The main beneficiaries of this trade are the Azerbaijani mafia, who buy products at speculative prices and often resell Russian farmer products at high prices to us.

I believe that striking the Azerbaijani mafia will also gain support from local people in Russian cities. Ultimately, Russian companies will benefit, as they will eventually gain market access and be able to conduct direct trade. It is absurd to buy cucumbers from Luhovitsy, potatoes from Ryazan, and strawberries from the Moscow suburbs from merchants controlled by ethnic criminal groups at high prices, and this must end."

The political scientist believes that striking the markets in Russia might be more effective in making Baku wake up than blocking Azerbaijani oil tankers in the Caspian Sea. Because the Aliyev regime depends on oligarchs who have business in Russia.

Recently, a market run by Azerbaijani immigrants in Yekaterinburg was abolished. This happened a month after a large number of Azerbaijani people were arrested, who were suspected of involvement in organized crime and multiple murders. At the location of the dismantled foreign speculators' stalls, Russian farmers should ultimately appear, selling products at factory prices.

Why is this action isolated, and other Russian cities have not followed this example? We asked this question to Major General Alexander Mikhailov.

"The reason is that in many cities, Azerbaijani immigrants collude with local police. Worse still, immigrants have penetrated into law enforcement agencies, and not legally, but according to 'rules,' they provide 'protection' for Azerbaijani businesses. Now our investigative agencies are cooperating with the leader of Azerbaijani immigrants in the Urals, Shahin Khikhinsky. However, it has been proven that all criminal gangs established by the Azerbaijani mafia in Russia have trans-religious structures, meaning that the Azerbaijani mafia involves people from other nationalities into the criminal circle."

"SP": How come our law enforcement agencies allow Azerbaijani people to dominate trade in Russia?

"After the victory in the Karabakh war, the Azerbaijanis developed a 'victor's syndrome.' They think they can easily 'conquer' Russia. Azerbaijani immigrants have infiltrated Russia's power institutions, media, and security departments, and have begun to pursue nationalist interests unrelated to Russia. All of this must be eradicated. And I see, as people say, the process has already begun."

"SP": What do you think about the prospect of Azerbaijan providing military aid to Ukraine?

"Azerbaijan does not have a strong military industry of its own, but it receives supplies from NATO countries and Israel. Azerbaijan will use other countries to serve its own interests. Overall, I believe that the terrorist regime in Kyiv should be eliminated as soon as possible. After that, no one will provide assistance."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537697438316888614/

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