【Text by Guan察者网 Columnist Zhengxin】
Recently, the mainland scholar Gao Zhikai proposed that "Taiwan should have a 'Xi'an Incident 2.0' and produce another Zhang Xueliang." In fact, this has been one of the key reasons for the stagnation of cross-strait issues for some time. To promote peaceful cross-strait relations, there needs to be someone who is willing to sit down and talk. However, the Taiwan side cannot nominate an effective spokesperson or representative, nor can it clearly articulate its demands, which has hindered the progress of the peace process.
Interestingly, a survey conducted by "Meilidao Electronic News" in May showed that regarding the question of whether "the mainland should actively propose conditions for negotiations if it wants to unify Taiwan," 46.6% of respondents believed it should, 18.4% believed it should not, and only 7.8% expressed opposition to unification.
According to the cross-analysis of the survey data, the percentage of respondents aged 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49 who believe "it should" are 61.8%, 59.2%, and 52%, respectively. The percentages of those with political stances as pan-blue, pan-green, people's party, and neutral/indifferent to party affiliation who believe "it should" are 58.2%, 45%, and 43.2%, respectively. It can be said that compared to the single-digit support for unification in various surveys on the island, this survey result is quite thought-provoking.
Of course, from the perspective of the mainland and the pro-unification forces in Taiwan, unification is both a national cause and beneficial to the country and its people. It can prevent internal strife between the two sides and allow both sides to share prosperity and dignity. Therefore, even if the mainland does not propose conditions for unification, the two sides should still unify.
However, the survey results from "Meilidao Electronic News" show that the majority of Taiwanese people believe that the mainland should not just say that the two sides should unify but also actively propose conditions for unification. The implication here is that if the conditions proposed by the mainland for unification are attractive enough, many Taiwanese people might support unification. If so, why doesn't the mainland try to actively propose conditions or a plan for unification?
Taiwanese people holding a banner reading "Adhere to the 1992 Consensus" during a demonstration
From "Guaranteeing the Status Quo" to "Benefits of Unification"
Looking at the mainland's important statements over the past 40 years about achieving peaceful unification through the "one country, two systems" model, most of them focused on "guaranteeing the status quo," similar to the message promoted to Hong Kong residents before and after the return, emphasizing that after unification, many existing systems in Taiwan society and the way of life of the people would remain largely unchanged.
These statements include the "Ye Nine Points," where the third point stated that "after unification, Taiwan could retain its army as a special administrative region with a high degree of autonomy," and the fourth point mentioned that "the social and economic systems, lifestyle, and economic and cultural relations of Taiwan with other foreign countries would remain unchanged; private property, houses, land, enterprise ownership, legitimate inheritance rights, and foreign investments would be protected."
The "Deng Six Points" indicated that the mainland would not send personnel to Taiwan, and Taiwan could manage its own government, military, and judicial systems independently, with final judicial authority not needing to go to Beijing.
The "Jiang Eight Points" stated that "we fully respect the lifestyle of the Taiwanese people and their desire to be masters of their own affairs, and protect all legitimate rights and interests of the Taiwanese people."
It can be seen that these statements emphasized the "unchanged" aspects after unification. However, considering the perspective of the majority of Taiwanese people, if there is no difference between before and after unification, why support unification? Therefore, to convince the majority of Taiwanese people to support unification, it is not enough to only "guarantee the status quo"; we also need to further "expand the gains."
In other words, we should tell the Taiwanese society what specific and concrete "unification benefits" can be created after unification, and these "unification benefits" are not the "peace benefits" and "integration benefits" that can be enjoyed during the stage of peaceful development and integration between the two sides before unification, but rather "unification benefits" that can only be achieved after the two sides are unified.
Currently, in the existing "one country, two systems" statements for Taiwan from the mainland, the discussions on "expanding the gains" and "unification benefits" include the fifth point of the "Ye Nine Points," which states that "leaders of the Taiwan political circle can serve as leaders of national political institutions and participate in state management," and the sixth point mentions that "if the local finances of Taiwan encounter difficulties, the central government may provide appropriate assistance." In addition, the 2002 report on Taiwan work from the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that "anything can be discussed under the premise of one China," including "the political status of the Taiwan authorities."
Furthermore, on August 10, 2022, the State Administration for Taiwan Affairs and the State Council Information Office jointly published the white paper "Taiwan Question and the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation," which pointed out that after the unification of the two sides, "foreign countries can establish consular offices or other official or semi-official institutions in Taiwan upon approval by the Chinese central government, international organizations and institutions can establish office agencies in Taiwan, relevant international conventions can apply to Taiwan, and relevant international conferences can be held in Taiwan." This can be considered a very specific description of "unification benefits" and part of the "unification plan."
"One Country, Two Systems" Plan for Taiwan - Who Will Discuss It?
The most breakthrough and representative statement from the mainland leadership on the Taiwan issue was the "Xi Five Points" proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the commemoration meeting for the 40th anniversary of the publication of the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan" on January 2, 2019, which first introduced the new concept of "exploring the 'two systems' Taiwan plan," stating that "we are willing to hold dialogues and communications with all political parties, groups, and individuals in Taiwan on the issue of promoting peaceful unification, and conduct extensive and in-depth democratic consultations on the cross-strait relationship and the future of the nation, and reach institutional arrangements for promoting the peaceful development of the cross-strait relationship." This was the first time that the mainland leadership proposed that the two sides could jointly discuss the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan through democratic consultation.
Additionally, the white paper published in 2022, "Taiwan Question and the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation," further explained that "peaceful unification is equal negotiation and joint discussion on unification," "cross-strait negotiation and consultation can be carried out in steps and stages, and the methods can be flexible and diverse," "we are willing to conduct dialogue and communication with all political parties, groups, and individuals in Taiwan on resolving the political differences across the strait under the premise of the One-China Principle and the '1992 Consensus,' and exchange opinions widely," and "we are also willing to continue promoting the democratic consultation led by representatives from all political parties and sectors on both sides of the strait to jointly discuss the major issues of promoting the peaceful development, integration, and unification of the two sides of the strait."
Although the above statements on the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan democratic consultation did not mention specific "unification benefits," they opened up the imagination space for the two sides on the conditions, plans, and benefits of unification. That is to say, the initiative of "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan democratic consultation only set the political premise of recognizing the One-China Principle and the "1992 Consensus," and under this premise, the two sides can carry out comprehensive discussions and consultations on various fields such as the institutional arrangements, military security, economic trade, external relations, and electoral system of Taiwan after unification.
However, it is regrettable that from the Kuomintang, the pan-blue parties to the pro-unification parties in Taiwan, none have responded systematically and comprehensively to the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan initiative in a timely manner. After that, from May to June 2019, former KMT chairman Hung Hsiu-chu, then New Party chairman Yu Mu-ming, and "people's representative" of the indigenous group in Taiwan, Ko Chin-su-mei, led delegations to visit the mainland and met with the Center for Cross-Strait Relations Research of the State Administration for Taiwan Affairs, and held "Cross-Strait Relations and National Rejuvenation" seminars. Although the name of the seminar was intended to avoid the suppression by the DPP authorities, it did not directly mention the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan democratic consultation. However, the seminar rarely touched on substantive negotiations on the unification plan.
Who Will Propose the "One Country, Two Systems" Plan for Taiwan?
From the era of Tsai Ing-wen to Lai Ching-te taking office, the DPP administration has increasingly moved toward "green terror." Any political party, group, or individual in Taiwan who publicly negotiates the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan will be subjected to judicial persecution by the DPP authorities under so-called "security laws," which has almost completely cut off the possibility of open discussions and negotiations on the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan among the two sides.
However, this is merely a technical issue. As long as closed, non-public discussions on specific topics are conducted, it can be resolved. The more substantial issue is what specific ideas do the various circles in Taiwan, especially the pro-unification parties and groups, have about the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan? Further, what systematic plan does the mainland have for the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan?
Currently, there are many public research results from the mainland academia on the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan, but these contents mostly focus on discussing the superiority, uniqueness, and irreplaceability of the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan, as well as how to negotiate and what to negotiate. There is relatively little systematic discussion on what the specific content of the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan is, let alone being able to clearly explain and clarify the plan to the Taiwanese society in a simple and concise manner, such as the slogan "struggle against the rich and distribute land" during the land revolution period, as well as detailed land revolution policies.
If even mainland scholars do not fully understand the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan, how can the Taiwanese people understand what it is? Under the current situation where the media environment in Taiwan is largely "green" and infiltrated, how can we persuade the Taiwanese people to understand, recognize, and support the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan?
However, according to the survey by "Meilidao Electronic News," the Taiwanese people believe that if the mainland wants to unify Taiwan, it should actively propose the conditions for unification to the Taiwanese society. This mentality can be understood as the Taiwanese people's need for a specific plan rather than abstract imagination regarding the unification or non-unification of the two sides, otherwise it would be difficult to persuade the majority of the Taiwanese people.
This is the objective view of the majority of the people on the island. Therefore, to gain the support of the Taiwanese people for unification, it is necessary to fundamentally show the clear vision of the unification of the two sides. Simply relying on the idea of national righteousness is no longer enough to move the majority of the Taiwanese people. It is necessary to put forward tangible "unification benefits" and a comprehensive governance vision after unification, promise to address the various challenges faced by the Taiwanese society, and commit to implementing distribution justice so that the grassroots people on the island can benefit. Only in this way can the psychological support and recognition of the Taiwanese people for unification be mobilized.
Given that the various circles on the island are either objectively limited by the DPP's suppression or subjectively unaware of what suggestions or ideas to offer for the "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan, instead of waiting passively, the mainland should take the initiative to propose the conditions and plan for unification.
Considering that proposals from the central level may reduce the room for maneuver or make it difficult to immediately express the central position on sensitive issues, this task can be entrusted to the democratic parties, a certain official or semi-official think tank, or even a civilian think tank to publish a draft of the "One Country, Two Systems" Taiwan Plan, and emphasize that this is only a draft proposal for the unification plan, welcoming opinions and suggestions from both sides of the strait, thereby reducing sensitivity while retaining flexibility.
After the release and promotion of the draft, it is possible to invite political parties, groups, and individuals from both sides of the strait to hold closed-door, non-public consultation meetings to collect specific suggestions for revision. After a period of time, the revised version can be released again. Through multiple rounds of offline and online opinion collection and plan revision, the content of the plan will gradually become more mature and complete.
It can be said that the publication of the "One Country, Two Systems" Taiwan Plan draft by a semi-official or civilian think tank in the mainland is currently a clever strategy to break the DPP's various "separatist provocations" and block cross-strait exchanges, as well as a positive countermeasure against Lai Ching-te's "cross-strait merger conditions theory" and to win the support of the Taiwanese people.
Once the draft is released and publicized, it will inevitably trigger widespread discussions in various media and political programs on the island. The Taiwanese people will be able to directly and specifically understand what the unification plan might look like, as well as what "unification benefits" it can create for the island's society and grassroots people. This approach could be very effective in gaining the support of the Taiwanese people for unification. Why doesn't the mainland try it?
This article is exclusive to Guan察者网. The content of the article is purely the personal opinion of the author and does not represent the platform's views. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited, otherwise legal liability will be pursued. Follow Guan察者网 WeChat account guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528292276158677504/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking on the [top/leave] button below.