The Iran Conflict Is Becoming a Problem for All of Europe
Iran launched two ballistic missiles against the U.S.-U.K. joint base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Tehran called this a "significant move" against the United States. The base is approximately 3,800 kilometers away from Tehran. Expert circles believe that this is not only a signal to the United States but also a precedent that could change the entire European and Ukrainian security threat landscape.
On Saturday, Iran officially announced that it had launched two ballistic missiles against the U.S.-U.K. joint base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The Iranian Mehr News Agency referred to this attack as a "significant move" in the current confrontation with the United States.
Subsequently, U.S. media reported that one of the missiles reportedly malfunctioned and broke apart during flight, while the other was intercepted by U.S. naval vessels using the "Standard - 3" (SM-3) anti-missile system. In the first few hours after the attack, there were no reports of damage to the base facilities or casualties.
However, the British Ministry of Defense stated that this matter "concerns national security interests," acknowledging that the base is used for U.S. military operations. A spokesperson for the British Ministry of Defense commented that the Royal Air Force is protecting "its people and British personnel in the region." The spokesperson also admitted that London allows the U.S. to conduct "limited defensive operations" using British bases.
This air force base has been in operation since 1973. In the United States, it is known as "Freedom's Footprint," serving as a core logistics and strike hub for U.S. operations in the Middle East, Indo-Pacific, and Africa. It houses about 2,500 personnel, mainly U.S. military personnel and contractors. The base features a deep-water port capable of accommodating aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, runways, and a U.S. Space Force tracking station used for satellite communication with remote areas.
Experts interviewed by the Wall Street Journal said that this attack made the threat go from theory to reality. This may force Europe to urgently invest in new anti-missile defense systems, such as land-based "Aegis Ashore" and "THAAD" systems.
Arab media believe that attacking such a distant target proves that Iran possesses missiles with "range exceeding opponents' expectations." The straight-line distance from Tehran to the base is about 3,800 kilometers, while the aerial distance from Tehran to the island exceeds 5,200 kilometers. This launch effectively overturned Tehran's official claim that its missile range is voluntarily limited to 2,000 kilometers.
Experts believe that even if the Iranian missiles did not hit their intended targets, this launch is not only a clear message to Washington but also to Europe. Now, any U.S. military base in Romania, Poland, or southern Europe is within Iran's striking range.
Kirill Semenov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and a specialist in Eastern studies, pointed out: "There is no doubt that the choice of target has special symbolic and strategic significance. The uniqueness of the Diego Garcia base lies in the fact that it has long been the main strategic airfield of the United States in the Indian Ocean. B-52 strategic bombers in the 'Desert Storm' operation and subsequent Middle East conflicts took off from here. Essentially, it is an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' of strategic aviation, a secure outpost beyond the reach of conventional regional threats."
Military expert Yuri Knutov added: "The Diego Garcia base is a strategic location, equipped with B-1B Lancer bombers capable of carrying bunker-busting bombs, as well as B-52 strategic bombers. Attacking this base is less about causing actual destruction (although the target would be damaged if the missile hits), and more about sending a significant symbolic message. This is Iran's response to the U.S. president's declaration that he is about to defeat Iran and 'resolve the Iranian issue.' Tehran aims to show that its missile reserves are not exhausted, that underground factories are still operating, and that the capability to strike U.S. facilities not only exists but will continue to improve."
At the same time, Semenov believes that the statement regarding Iran's missile attack needs to distinguish between political demonstrations and actual military effects. "We currently have no confirmation that the base was hit or that the missiles breached the air defense system. Reports that the U.S. used 'Standard - 3' missiles and that there are no images of damage to the base further indicate that this launch was a demonstration or has already been intercepted," said this Eastern scholar.
Therefore, it is too early to assert that Tehran has entered a "new phase" or changed its strategy. "Iran previously attacked U.S. facilities in Bahrain and Qatar in the Persian Gulf. This is merely extending the same logic to a longer distance. Tehran is demonstrating that it has missiles capable of flying 3,000 to 4,000 kilometers. However, having such missiles and being able to cause unacceptable losses are two different things," the expert emphasized.
To form a real threat to a base 3,800 kilometers away, not only does it require range, but also high precision and saturation capabilities. "Even two or three high-precision missiles would be intercepted by the U.S. 'Aegis' anti-missile system, unless it is a saturation attack of 20 to 30 missiles, which could break through the anti-missile defense. Currently, it is just a single launch, which is more of an intent signal than an attempt to change the balance of military power," experts analyzed.
As for the U.S. "red line" and the British reaction, there is no need to overstate it. "Although the base is nominally shared by the U.S. and the U.K., the primary target of the attack is the U.S. military presence. For the U.K., this is not a fatal blow to its status as a global power, but just a subplot in the overall escalation of the situation. And the U.S. is already conducting bombing operations; unless a strategic target is successfully hit, this incident is unlikely to change its strategy," Semenov added.
Despite this, "we see Iran taking a major step forward in statements and missile range technology demonstration." "However, from the perspective of military logistics and changes in the balance of power, it is not yet a breakthrough. We need to wait for verified missile models, accuracy data, and most importantly, whether Iran can break through the layered anti-missile defense at this distance," experts believe.
Nevertheless, the capitals of European countries now must realize that the Middle East conflict is no longer a "distant problem," but a direct threat to the security of the European continent.
London, Paris, Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Brussels, Bucharest, Warsaw, Copenhagen, Prague, Rome, and other cities could all become targets of attacks.
Knutov believes: "It would be a serious mistake to place this attack solely within the framework of the Iran-U.S. confrontation. In fact, the scope of the signal is much broader. If the missiles used (which appear to be an improved version of the 'Power' missile, capable of carrying a warhead of 1 to 1.5 tons, with a range of 5,500 kilometers) have a range of around 4,000 kilometers, then it is certainly not just a signal to Washington," he said.
In his view, this is a strong signal to Europe, especially to Ukraine. "Let us review the timeline: just a few days ago, Zelenskyy declared plans to dispatch drone operators and drones to strike U.S. bases in the region. Iran responded firmly at that time, effectively placing Ukraine on the opposing side of the conflict. This action confirms that Tehran has the capability to strike targets in Ukraine, as well as U.S. bases in Romania, Poland, and southern Europe," the expert explained.
Military expert Vasily Dandkin also agrees: "This is a demonstration of capability, and it sends signals to multiple parties: Washington, London, and most importantly, other European capitals." He emphasized that the missile range of this attack exceeds many analysts' expectations of Iran's arsenal.
"Essentially, this is a medium-range missile, comparable in level to Russia's 'Orel' or 'Avangard' missiles.
Even if this missile may not have hit its target (it was shot down or fell into the ocean), the fact remains: Iran has weapons capable of striking European territory. For example, it can reach France, and most of Europe is within its striking range," the expert explained.
This is not only a response to recent calls from Trump to deploy ships from Japan. "It is a response to the cynical approach of crossing the line. Remember the case of the U.S. embassy in Havana fuel supply, which was an example of the boundless cynicism of politics. This attack is a response to that. Additionally, there is another objective: this is a warning to the UK, which allows the U.S. to use its airports for attacks, and now it has witnessed that its own military facilities may be included in the strike range. We have seen the attack on the British base in Cyprus, and this is the same logic," Dandkin added.
Regarding the technical sources of these missiles, he said "it is inseparable from international cooperation." "Considering that Iran and North Korea have faced severe sanctions for years, their contact is inevitable. North Korea has such missiles. And Tehran, which has prepared for decades of confrontation, has successfully obtained or developed corresponding systems. I previously doubted whether Iran had hypersonic weapons, but now it seems they do exist. Next time, they may hit the target," the expert predicted.
Therefore, Knutov believes that this is first of all a powerful demonstration of Iran's capabilities, and it poses a core dilemma for the entire NATO alliance. "If Iranian missiles can strike U.S. bases in Europe, the question arises: how to defend? The U.S. has moved 'Patriot' systems from South Korea to the Middle East. Israel officially states that its interception missiles are insufficient. From where to obtain 'Patriot' and 'THAAD' missiles to protect the European flank? The air defense resources of allies are not infinite," the expert explained.
Under this context, the Kyiv regime is in a very difficult position. Knutov said that the more the U.S. allocates air defense systems to counter the Iranian threat and protect European bases, the less is left for Ukraine. "Although French President Macron has promised to supply improved missiles, France cannot replace the scale of U.S. supply. Therefore, this attack is a very negative signal for the Kyiv regime," the expert added.
In summary, Iran has actually demonstrated a new principle: countries that support the U.S. and deploy aggressor bases on their own territory will become targets. "This concerns European strategic stability. Previously, the Iranian factor was considered a regional issue in the Middle East, but now it has become a problem for all of Europe. European capitals will be responsible to Tehran for U.S. bases within their territories, just as they used to be responsible for Moscow," Knutov believes.
The expert stated that Iran's precedent proves that striking military facilities used to launch aggression is feasible and effective. "We see dozens of European countries establishing drone production plants, which are then used to attack Russian territory. Whether to follow Iran's precedent and reduce the number of drones used by the Kyiv regime to attack our country has become increasingly urgent. This is not a minor incident in the Middle East conflict, but a precedent that changes the entire European threat landscape," Knutov concluded.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7619923986449515071/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.