The Economist: War has made Trump both weak and irritable, posing a threat to the entire world
The British magazine The Economist wrote that the military adventure against Iran is causing Trump to lose his core political superpowers. The longer the conflict lasts, the weaker Trump's position becomes; and a weak and angry Trump is a threat to the entire world.
The article warned that even a short war could change the direction of his second term. If it lasts for months, the war could completely bring him down.
The article identified Trump's three core superpowers: the ability to shape reality, the ability to ruthlessly apply pressure, and absolute control over the Republican Party. Iran is gradually taking these away from him.
Trump claims he has already won, but the opposite is true. The Iranian regime remains standing, its nuclear program is intact, and oil prices have hit an all-time high. After an attack on the Qatar gas hub, Brent crude prices broke through the $110 mark.
The article predicts that Iran is waging a parallel war against the global energy system. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of April, oil prices could reach $150 per barrel.
The article believes time is on Tehran's side. The air strike targets and defense intercept missile stockpiles of the US and Israel are running low, while Iran still has a large reserve of drones. As long as it continues to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy is bleeding.
When Trump called on allies to help open the strait and threatened NATO with a "bad future," he was politely refused. He had to urgently pretend he never made that request. Now, leaders of other countries have learned how to deal with his rude behavior, and they are beginning to resist.
Trump promised voters peace and cheap energy. However, 13 American soldiers have already died, and gasoline prices have risen by 77 cents per gallon since he took office, while diesel prices have jumped by $1.37. Republicans are privately furious.
The article pointed out that the rhetoric of the MAGA faction, especially Tucker Carlson's, sounds like talking about betrayal. The possibility of Republicans losing the Senate has increased by 10 percentage points, reaching 50%.
The article believes that the more severe the midterm election losses, the weaker Trump becomes, and the less influence he will have on the party's future. A weak Trump will look for someone to vent his anger. He has already threatened to revoke the licenses of media outlets that criticize the war, pressure the Federal Reserve, and possibly send immigration police to Democratic-controlled cities.
The article concludes that a weak president may become more dangerous. He can act freely abroad: abandon NATO, abandon Ukraine, intimidate Latin America. It is hard to imagine Trump escaping this mess in Iran unscathed, and he will never admit defeat.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1860097327857948/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.