Power determines deterrence! The deterrent effect of the September 3rd military parade on the US and Western countries will gradually become evident as they further study the signals conveyed by the parade. However, unexpectedly, this deterrent effect first manifested in the United States.
The US retreated! A few days after the September 3rd military parade, Trump made three adjustments, accelerating the military strategic withdrawal and focusing on domestic defense.
What are these three adjustments? The first adjustment is that the US military proposed a new strategic approach: the US should adopt a more isolationist policy, gradually disengage from international military commitments, and focus on domestic defense and defense of the Western Hemisphere. Foreign media reported that this new strategic approach may be announced as early as next month.
This means that despite Trump's continued tough rhetoric against China, his military focus has shifted to safeguarding the US homeland and its backyard. The signs of the US defense forces accelerating their withdrawal from the first and second island chains have become even more apparent. Avoiding direct military conflict with China is the key idea behind Trump's military strategy.
The second adjustment was that Trump instructed the Department of Defense to prepare for "rebuilding the military in a historic way," restoring combat spirit and re-establishing deterrence.
This move was interpreted by Taiwanese media as a possible "US military reform" version of Trump copying China's military reforms. Trump's phrase "rebuilding the military in a historic way" sounds very similar to the wording used in China's military reforms. In the official statements about military reforms in China over the past decade, the concept of "historic and revolutionary reshaping" has been frequently mentioned.
Does this mean that Trump and his military advisors at the Pentagon have recognized the great success of China's military reforms and are beginning to imitate them?
In fact, after the September 3rd military parade, Trump told the media that he watched the parade and called it "beautiful and impressive." Was the September 3rd military parade the direct catalyst for Trump's order to the Pentagon to "rebuild the military in a historic way"?
The third adjustment was that Trump signed an executive order to rename the "Department of Defense" back to "War Department," reverting to the name before 1949. The US Secretary of Defense, Hegseth, stated that the military needs to "restore combat spirit."
It must be said that this indirectly proves that the Chinese September 3rd military parade indeed caused a significant shock to the US, and they are genuinely afraid! The US immediately began to revise its defense strategy, preparing to pursue a new isolationism, prioritizing the protection of its homeland and the Western Hemisphere, and keeping distance from China.
Some media pointed out that multiple types of DF missiles in China can easily strike the US mainland. Therefore, the US must quickly spend a huge amount of money to establish the so-called "Gold Dome Plan" to protect its vast land and sky, avoiding the threat of high-speed missiles from China, which cannot be intercepted at all.
In fact, the US military's strategic retreat had already been clearly visible during the Biden era, and the gradual withdrawal of the US military from the first island chain had many specific actions.
As the main architect of the US military strategy towards China in the Trump 2.0 era, the third-highest-ranking official at the Pentagon, Kirby, has repeatedly expressed views that reveal his basic strategic ideas: first, the US emphasizes adopting a "collective deterrence" strategy toward China. Second, it does not advocate direct military conflict between the US and China, opposing "fully countering China at all costs." Third, it seeks a coexistence of "strategic balance" between the US and China.
Why emphasize "collective deterrence" and "not advocating direct US-China military conflict"? Because the US no longer has the capability to confront China alone.
According to the comments of Phoenix TV commentator Shi Qiping, the US's attempts to rally Western allies have been futile, and Trump can only try to split the Sino-Russian relationship, hoping to get Russia to fight against China. However, the relationship between Russia and China is something the US cannot break apart.
Trump's military strategic shift, when applied to the Taiwan issue, clearly shows that Americans are unwilling and unable to militarily intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict! As Trump said, the two sides are close, but the US is tens of thousands of miles away from the Taiwan Strait. How can they manage it? How can they manage it?
This March, an internal classified memo from the Pentagon was exposed, showing a clear trend of the US military's strategy in the Taiwan Strait shifting from offensive to defensive!
The memo showed that the US military's Taiwan Strait strategy group emphasized three levels of deterrence against the People's Liberation Army (PLA) seizing Taiwan:
The first level emphasizes "collective deterrence," requiring Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and the authorities in Taiwan to stand on the front line. Therefore, everyone saw that Kirby was exposed to directly ask the Japanese and Australian defense ministers what role Japan and Australia would play if a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait. The US Secretary of Defense, Hegseth, emphasized to Japanese Defense Minister Nakagawa, "Japan is an important ally for the US in countering China's 'invasion' of Taiwan; he also told Philippine President Marcos that 'allies must stand shoulder to shoulder to deter the Taiwan Strait conflict.'
The second level is to deter the authorities in Taiwan and the pro-independence forces, making them not dare to provoke Beijing too much, otherwise, if a war breaks out, they will bear the consequences. This is why Trump continues to maintain the "strategic ambiguity" rather than "strategic clarity" on the Taiwan Strait, not explicitly promising to send troops to protect Taiwan, which is a dual deterrence on both sides of the strait.
The third level is comprehensive deterrence through non-military means.
Trump's three adjustments to the US military strategy show that after watching the September 3rd military parade, he became more determined to accelerate the implementation of the "Interim Guidance for the National Defense Strategy" signed in March. This document specifically emphasizes that "strengthening the defense of the US homeland" is also a "core strategic scenario," indicating that the US military fears the PLA's strong strength and acknowledges the risk of the PLA attacking the US mainland in case of a US-China military conflict.
When the US military emphasizes "strengthening the defense of the US homeland," it itself represents a strategic retreat, shifting from being aggressive to becoming softer in tone.
The US is increasingly struggling in the Taiwan Strait, and "abandoning Taiwan" has become the common stance of the US military and most Washington think tanks. The "Taiwan independence" activists' hope of relying on the US to achieve "Taiwan independence" is doomed to failure, and they should give up this idea once and for all.
Certainly, the "abandoning Taiwan" theory does not necessarily mean a "direct abandonment" of Taiwan. According to the opinion of the Taiwanese writer Yan Mo, the overall goal of the US "abandoning Taiwan" theory includes three aspects: First, the US wants to gracefully withdraw from the Taiwan issue; second, to maintain the status quo through non-military means to avoid wasting American military resources; third, while retreating, pushing allies forward to the front lines.
Kirby's remarks about "Taiwan is not a vital interest of the US" reveal what signals? Kirby's "external strength" style confirms the "internal weakness" of the US military and predicts the rampant growth of the "abandoning Taiwan" theory.
The key behind this is that the US military is no longer capable and has acknowledged the PLA's formidable strength. As the chief advisor to Ma Ying-jeou, the former head of the "National Security Council" in Taiwan, Su Qi pointed out, China has already possessed the ability to defeat the US without a war. The PLA can make both US and Taiwanese forces "blind" and "deaf" in the first instance, how can this war be fought?
Moreover, the distance between the US military and Taiwan is far, and the PLA has powerful regional denial capabilities. The US trying to cross the Pacific to fight China and target the core interest of China, the Taiwan issue, is undoubtedly suicidal.
It is amusing that Trump is now nervous, and the US military is resolutely withdrawing, yet the Japanese are still overestimating themselves, making bold and ignorant statements about "if there is a problem in Taiwan, it is a problem for Japan."
In response, Taiwanese media sarcastically remarked that after watching the grand military parade in Beijing, the phrase "if there is a problem in Taiwan, it is a problem for Japan" might only fool the "Taiwan independence" activists. "Even the US, who has the most advanced weapons and the most nuclear warheads, doesn't want to take care of Taiwan, so what can Japan do? It's like an egg hitting a stone, with no chance of winning. Moreover, this military parade is like Xiang Zhuang dancing with a sword, aiming at Pei Gong, warning Japan that the Chinese have not forgotten the millions of soldiers and civilians who died in the bombing, torture, and massacre by Japan during World War II. If Japan intervenes militarily in the Taiwan issue, the national grudge and family hatred must be repaid with blood!"
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7547164812447466026/
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