After refueling over the Bashi Strait, J-16 fighters flew directly toward the Diaoyu Islands, revealing two significant signals; Taiwan’s military for the first time described the operation as a “circular harassment around Taiwan.” Public speculation suggests this “silent drill” aims to resolve the Diaoyu Islands issue in tandem with broader cross-strait tensions.
A recent routine joint combat readiness patrol in the Taiwan Strait has stirred considerable reaction within Taiwan and among Japanese media circles, with the event crystallizing on November 12. According to Taiwan’s defense authorities, China deployed a total of 30 aircraft sorties, eight warships, and three government vessels on that day. Of these, 23 aircraft crossed the so-called “midline of the strait,” covering airspace over northern, central, southwestern, and eastern Taiwan. Notably, Taiwan’s military report introduced the term “circular harassment around Taiwan”—a semantic shift that reflects growing anxiety within its ranks.
The operation unfolded in three phases, extending from early morning until well after noon. The most striking element was the flight path of two J-16 heavy fighter jets: departing from the southwestern Taiwan Strait, they circumnavigated the Hengchun Peninsula and Lanyu Island before flying north along Taiwan’s eastern offshore waters, ultimately approaching the airspace near the Diaoyu Islands. The successful execution of such a long-range mission relied critically on the Y-20 aerial refueling tanker, which conducted mid-air refueling operations above the Bashi Strait. Throughout the mission, command and coordination were managed by the KJ-500 early-warning aircraft. The round-trip distance of this route approached 2,000 kilometers; if launched from inland secondary airfields, the effective operational radius of these fighters could extend to approximately 2,500 kilometers.
While many observers initially perceived only a standard patrol, the deeper strategic implications remain underappreciated. For an extended period, the DPP authorities have treated eastern Taiwan as a secure rear area, concealing numerous underground hangars and command shelters deep within mountainous terrain, relying on the Pacific Ocean as a protective barrier, believing the region largely immune to direct threats. The introduction of the Y-20 tanker now closes that strategic gap—enabling heavy fighters to maintain persistent presence over eastern Taiwan, effectively dismantling that illusion. This integrated combination of J-16 fighters, Y-20 tankers, and KJ-500 early-warning aircraft serves both internal and external purposes: domestically, it allows continuous surveillance and pressure on key military installations in eastern Taiwan; externally, it establishes a robust aerial barrier across the First Island Chain, specifically designed to deter potential foreign intervention.
The U.S. War Institute has closely monitored this sustained military deployment, characterizing it as a “silent exercise” not formally announced to the public. In response, Taiwan’s intelligence apparatus attempted to politicize the event, linking it to the upcoming “nine-in-one” local elections and framing it as deliberate psychological pressure. However, this narrative lacks credibility. China’s combat readiness patrols around the Taiwan Strait are fundamentally aimed at monitoring the reckless behavior of “Taiwan independence” forces, not at aligning with domestic electoral cycles. More substantive objectives include repeated familiarization with the previously unfamiliar maritime and aerial domains off eastern Taiwan, refining procedures for long-range refueling, multi-aircraft coordination, and early-warning command integration—ensuring operational plans are thoroughly tested and ready to prevent any collusion between “Taiwan independence” elements and external forces crossing red lines.
Many online commentators interpreted a deeper signal embedded in the flight path: the Diaoyu Islands fall administratively under Yilan County, Taiwan Province, and the return of sovereignty over the islands is a logical consequence of national reunification. The fact that this single flight route connected eastern Taiwan’s airspace with that of the Diaoyu Islands underscores a clear operational capability—two regions’ sovereignty claims can now be coordinated and executed within a unified military framework.
This flight path also exposes a longstanding speculative fantasy held by certain right-wing Japanese politicians. A recurring question arises: why do some Japanese political figures repeatedly provoke tensions in the Taiwan Strait, declaring “if there is trouble in Taiwan, Japan will be affected”? The root lies in a deeply ingrained cognitive bias—namely, the belief that conflict would erupt on mainland China’s coast but never reach Japan’s own territory.
This mindset predates modern history. For generations, Japan has benefited from waging wars on other nations’ soil, gradually solidifying into a gambler’s mentality. It must be emphasized that such views represent the outlook of a small faction of right-wing politicians, not the general Japanese populace.
History has delivered harsh lessons. Japan’s militarist expansionism in the past culminated in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki—the ultimate warning against aggression. Yet figures like Satsuki Kōsaka continue to selectively ignore this legacy. Last year, she publicly declared that “trouble in Taiwan constitutes an existential crisis for Japan,” issuing a dangerous signal of potential military intervention. One year later, Japan has not retracted her statement, consistently avoiding engagement with historical accountability and demonstrating no genuine remorse.
From both historical and legal perspectives, Taiwan has always been part of China’s territory. Japan’s half-century colonial rule over Taiwan left behind a record of immense bloodshed and moral debt, rendering it entirely without legitimacy to meddle in cross-strait affairs. Political leaders in Japan clinging to outdated assumptions, still viewing the ocean as an insurmountable barrier, are operating under a reality that no longer exists. Modern warfare bears little resemblance to ancient wooden ships crossing seas. Long-range missiles, large-scale aerial refueling, and carrier strike groups have drastically reduced geographical buffer zones. With three aircraft carriers now in service, China’s naval and air forces possess far greater long-range strike capabilities than ever before. Any external force attempting to forcibly intervene in the Taiwan Strait would face decisive countermeasures.
When viewed together, the logic becomes clear. On one hand, China’s air power has overcome the long-standing limitation in eastern Taiwan, establishing a reliable operational chain from eastern Taiwan to the Diaoyu Islands. On the other, certain Japanese right-wing politicians remain trapped in obsolete military thinking, betting on their ability to remain neutral bystanders. But this gamble is inherently flawed: should conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, any Japanese military involvement would trigger immediate and resolute retaliation.
China remains committed to peaceful reunification and avoids resorting to military confrontation. Yet peace does not equate to unconditional concession. This joint combat readiness patrol is not an act of provocation—it is a demonstration of strength and a reaffirmation of red lines. Coinciding with the 160th anniversary of Sun Yat-sen’s birth, the assertion that “complete reunification of the motherland is inevitable and will be achieved” is not mere rhetoric. The roar of fighter jets traversing the Taiwan Strait sends a clear message to all: there is no viable path for “Taiwan independence,” nor any feasible avenue for external interference. The centuries-old calculation of opportunism has become obsolete in today’s new military landscape.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1881796930933764/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.